__/ [ Geico Caveman ] on Sunday 20 August 2006 19:24 \__
> Roy Schestowitz wrote:
>> Microsoft vs. Open Source: Who Will Win?
>> ,----[ Quote ]
>> | The model shows that Microsoft can use piracy as an effective tool to
>> | price discriminate, and that piracy may even result in higher profits
>> | to Microsoft!
>> | [...]
>> | It will be very hard for anyone to oust Linux.
>> | [...]
>> | We conjecture that there are multiple equilibria and that the use of FUD
>> | to mold perceptions about future value becomes crucial.
> The actions of Microsoft vis-a-vis Linux can be best understood using the
> following size analogy :
> Linux marketshare (according to various studies that suffer from serious
> problems) is guessed at being about 1/40th-1/80th of that of Microsoft. Not
> unlike the relationship of a rottweiler and a flea. The flea keeps drawing
> blood (read marketshare) at a slow but relentless rate. The dog can fight
> and kill other dogs, but this flea is something that he knows fearfully
> that he cannot master. He keeps scratching himself in desperation, only
> opening up more sores, etc, making the flea's job even easier. Microsoft
> does not face immediate or even short term death, but it knows that its way
> is doomed in the long run. That causes even more desperation and constant
> pleas to influence Washington through lobbyists (Microsoft is one of the
> largest players in that) to ask for its flea remover spray (read Federal
> legislation / spending to make it harder for its competitors).
I love analogies. Here is a recent one, which I think is worth reading (the
context of WGA and the fight against Windows piracy).
,----[ Snippet ]
| This very much reminds me of the little fable about the man who had a
| goose that laid golden eggs. Each morning, he would come in and there
| would be a new Golden egg. The man became very wealthy but he also
| became very greedy. On day, he was so consumed by greed, that he
| decided that rather than wait for the goose to lay a golden egg, he
| would just kill the goose and get all of the eggs at once. Of course,
| there wasn't a "stash" of golden eggs inside, and now that the goose
| was dead, there would be no more eggs. All there was left for the man
| to do was to cook his own goose.
| > http://www.spywarehunter.org/entry/microsoft-to-augment-wga-with-more...
| This is the perfect example of Microsoft finally cooking it's own
| goose. It looks like Billy is about to retire, but before he does, he
| is going to try to make one last "big squeeze" for as much cash as he
| can, as quickly as he can, by "Killing the Goose".