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Re: [News] Windows Vista Will Lose to Linux

__/ [ Ray Ingles ] on Tuesday 30 May 2006 16:03 \__

> On 2006-05-28, Roy Schestowitz <newsgroups@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>| All in all, the probably unanimous conclusion is that with or without
>>| Vista's release in 2007 the winner is Linux. Paradoxically enough, just
>>| as many have suggested before, Microsoft shall boost Linux's popularity
>>| no matter what Vista will bring new to the OS market. Still, if
>>| rumors concerning a new delay of Vista are true, MS's credibility
>>| (already at low levels in recent years) will drop significantly,
>>| and with it, the finances too.
>  I think he underestimates the power of inertia. Linux's desktop share
> will increase, certainly, in the coming months and years, most
> especially in developing regions. But Vista will sell when it comes out,
> and do respectably, just because it'll come on most PCs sold.

Yes, of course. Vista's ability to sell itself will not be discounted.
However, IT departments are unlikely to embrace it any time before 2008 or
2009 (hardware costs a likely factor). By that time, with Linux expanding in
many countries, drivers support will have improved and the kernel will have
matured (bugfixing cycle included). I haven't the slightest doubt about it:
Linux will catch on in non-linear rates, as it already does.

> The drivers for Linux adoption are long-term, big-picture things -
> choice, flexibility, security, cost, etc. - and Microsoft's efforts can
> affect the rate of acceleration to some degree but not the overall
> direction. It'll be a few years yet before the decline is so obvious
> even the trolls can't dismiss it, but it's coming.

Well, your argument here reminds me of the FUD which I see in Linux Today
(among other Linux sites, even Google). They still get paid by Microsoft to
confuse their site visitors. It earns Microsoft some time, but they
definitely fight a losing battle. As regards trolls, they don't show up in
COLA as often as they used to. They must have found the whole terrain rather
frustrating. Imagine trying to defend Vista (for a start). There mascot is
already coughing out blood, so they call it quits and go back home.

PS - Took me a day to reply. Some of these threads delve into the cyclic
arguments and exchange of fists, so better stay outside. There are currently
3 such threads.

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