High Plains Thumper wrote:
> Roy Schestowitz wrote:
> > To Microsoft: Hurry up, please, it's time
> > ,----[ Quote ]
> > | But the bulk of Microsoft's revenue still comes from Windows and Office.
> > | Now, with virtualization, and Linux and the Web as our virtual operating
> > | systems, the importance of Windows is fast diminishing and the premier
> > | desktop application suite, Office, will soon follow suit.
> > `----
Keep in mind that Microsoft plays a numbers game. Even if only 80%
actually USE the preinstalled Windows, it's irrelevant, because the
machine is SOLD with Windows preinstalled. Microsoft gets their $50
(average OEM price) regardless of whether it's used or not.
On the other hand, if Linux becomes the primary operating system, the
risk is that if Microsoft does not "play nice" with Linux, that they
could be excluded entirely. There could also be a legal battle in
which Vista licensing is ruled illegal, that Microsoft is illegally
using it's monopoly power.
Microsoft knows that Linux is a growing and substantial portion of the
market. Linux desktop is growing as high as 800% per year, and there
are too many distributions out there, available through everything from
shrink-wrapped boxes at CompUSA to DVDs sold with magazines in Barnes
and Noble, Borders, and B. Dalton. Millions, perhaps hundreds of
millions of copies of Linux, with any of them having the ability to
function as the primary operating system, ultimately displacing Windows
entirely -- unless....
Unless Microsoft could find a way to stay in the game as part of Linux.
Microsoft could license the libraries from Windows required to run the
best applications under WINE. At least this would reduce the risk of
mass defections of Windows software developers to *nix for OS/X, Linux,
and Cygwin.
Signed agreements with minimum commitments from Microsoft, assuring
minimum shipments of Linux can also create grounds to deflect lawsuits
claiming that Microsoft has excluded them from the market. The irony
is that Microsoft may end up actually increasing their profits on OEM
licenses by offering the combination of Linux (such as SUSE LInux) with
Windows Vista Ultimate running as a VM Xen Client. It could be as much
as $40 additional profit per machine for about $3 of additional
investment in Linux (remember, the Linux distributor gets the bulk if
his revenue from support contracts).
> > http://weblog.infoworld.com/techwatch/archives/009051.html
>
> This is a revelation that thin clients are the way to go for the future. I
> find this conclusion interesting:
Thin Clients is such a terrible term, and so misleading. Keep in mind
that Sun first used the "thin client" concept back in the 1990s with
the SLC and ILC "lunch-box" machines. The desktop machines were full
blown UNIX systems, with a substantial amount of memory for the time,
but they could either run using an external SCSI drive or use a high
speed ethernet interface to boot the operating systems.
Imagine if you took a NetGear router, provided an SBUS high def
interface, and multiple USB-2 and a gigabit ethernet interface and a
400 Mbit/sec WiFi N1 interface and you could have as "Thin Client"
machine. You could boot it via the Ethernet using an SMB server
(including a NetGear or LinkSys network storage controller). You could
boot it using the USB interface. If the USB driver can also configured
to work with USB-2 Hubs, you could add up to 8 external devices,
including keyboards, mice, USB-2 drives, and USB-2 DVD drives. Heck,
you could probably build a machine that is substantially faster than a
traditional PC, with no noisy fans.
Another option of course, which SUN also used, was to provide an X11
interface. Sun allowed customers to install X-Terminals, which could
be inexpensive WYSE terminals or PCs configured with X11, to the
ethernet interface. Sun even adopted 100 Mb/sec ethernet to get better
performance. This is also a common practice among Linux users who often
use X11 software such as that included with cygwin. There are millions
of Linux "servers" which are actually providing "desktop" services.
> | The truth is Microsoft carries within itself its own seeds of destruction.
> | Built into to the very DNA of the company and its products is the need to
> | feed off the computer to survive.
There have been way too many people predicting Microsoft's demise for
almost 3 decades to get ready to make the funeral arrangements. When
the Bill Gates insulted hundreds of PC users in 1977 by calling them a
bunch of pirates and thieves for using BASIC without paying the
$500/copy price (dealer confusion), on the MITS Altair, people
predicted the demise of Microsoft. When the Apple-II and CP/M came
out, people predicted the demise of Microsoft. When Atari, COCO, and
Commodore 64 and VIC came out, many predected the demise of Microsoft.
I even thought that the Atari ST and the Commodore Amiga might do some
severe damage. And the Mac looked like it would do some serious
damage.
When IBM and Microsoft divorced over OS/2, I thought Microsoft was in
trouble then, especially when Windows 3.0 was crashing 2-3 times per
hour. I also thought that UNIX or Linux, especially SCO Unix,
Interactive Unix, Novell UnixWare, or SlackWare Linux - might put a
dent in Windows 3.1, since they could run for weeks without crashing,
while Windows 3.1 was crashing every 2-3 hours.
> | But if Scott McNealy's original statement, "the network is the computer"
> | is true as it appears to be then computer is not the computer and
> | Microsoft with all of its money will not be able to feed off its current
> | revenue stream and it will starve to death.
Linux has been very quietly redefining the computer from the ground up.
TiVO is Linux powered "media center". NetGear, D-Link, LinkSys, and
Belkin all make Linux powered routers, WiFi hubs, and NetGear and
LinkSys make Linux powered NAS Storage controllers. The NetGear flavor
lets you install 2 IDE hard drives which can be accessed via the
ethernet interface. The LinkSys flavor lets you plug in 2 USB-2 drives
which can be accessed via the Ethernet drives. Both also support
mirroring, striping, or independent drives.
Sony has a few devices which are now Linux powered, including HDTVs,
Milo communicator, PS-3, and Some DVD recorders and related devices.
The combination of "thin clients" coupled with "appliances" has made it
possible for Linux to permeate the industry, making a huge reputation
for itself. Linux/UNIX has also become more and more dominant in the
desktop itself, with Live-CD, Virtualized, and Dual-Boot systems.
> With European Union economic GDP buying power being equivalent in 2005 to US
> (according to CIA Fact Book), they are looking for independence from
> outside economies.
Keep in mind that the United States economy has only been doing real
growth of 2-4% while EU, China, and India are growing at double-digit
rates. Productivity is going up, more people are doing high skill
jobs, and more people are marketing goods directly to "Western"
economies.
A key element in this transition is that Linux has made it possible for
people to have access to technology using budgets that were appropriate
to their average incomes. Eventually, Microsoft stopped trying to get
$75 per copy from China workers who were making the equivalent of
$3/day (enough to pay for 3 meals and 1 night in a hotel), or $18/week
(enough to pay 1 months rent). Microsoft finally realized that they
could sell Windows for 75 cents, and 3 copies of Windows will pay for 1
Xbox.
> A thin client Linux implementation in ROM would be cost effective. It would
> add new meaning to web TV.
A TiVo recorder costs $80.
A VTech machine costs $50-$90.
NetGear routers cost $50.
LinkSys storage controllers cost $90 each.
A NetGear storage machine costs $79 each.
USB-2 hard drives cost $100 each.
A USB-2 case costs $30 each.
A PATA hard drive ranges from $70 to $200 depending on rotation speed
and cache size.
And those are US prices.
The nicest part. The small low-power, low-heat power supplies don't
need cooling fans.
> --
> HPT
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