Au79 wrote:
> Desktop Linux - USA
>
> Would-be Windows-on-Linux gamers got a very early Christmas present on
> September 28, with the release by CodeWeavers of the first public beta
> of CrossOver ...
>
> <http://www.desktoplinux.com/news/NS3460199439.html>
Just a hunch, but I am thinking that if Microsoft absolutely insists on
their "Windows Guaranteed Agreession" WGA plan, that Crossover and
Win4Lin are going to get VERY POPULAR, and if OEMs insist on installing
a completely useless version of Windows, that WHITE BOX machines will
expand their market to about 50% of the market, cutting DEEPLY into the
desktop and laptop market.
Windows as a VM-Client to Linux is still possible with XP, making it an
attractive extra to those who want the benefits of Windows
compatibility protected by the security, performance, and stability of
Linux. But if WGA is going to nullify OEM licenses purchased with the
machine, there is no longer any advantage in purchasing an OEM machine
preloaded with Windows Vista.
This means that I'm better off getting Crossover, Xen, or purchasing a
discounted Windows license from VMWare - than I am getting an OEM
licensed copy which will simply be nullified the moment it's relegated
to "second chair" in the software orchestra.
Given that the Linux desktop market is the fastest growing segment of
the market, and that Linux desktop deployements are approaching 40
million deployements per year, this would mean that Linux is now being
installed on the equivalent of nearly 1/2 the machines sold, including
after market reconfiguration of OEM machines, and White Box
configurations.
The White Box market now makes up around 30-35% of the market, and
AMD-64 and Intel Duo chips from OEMs now make up another 30% of the
market, and both of these markets are primarily focused at Linux users
who are deploying Linux on destkop and laptop machines.
WGA, now almost guarantees to alienate Linux users who, in the past,
have purchased OEM machines with Windows XP because they could run it
as a guest under VMWare, Bochs, Xen, WINE with XP libraries. But they
want to run Windows as a GUEST, because Linux provides faster context
switching, faster drivers, better memory management, and faster OpenGL
graphics (since X11 servers/apps don't have to wait to "sync up" to the
Vsync). Simply put, Windows VM, or Windows libraries running under
WINE will run FASTER, more reliably, and more securely, than Windows XP
in native mode (and appearantly Windows Vista in Native mode).
Linux also has the advantage of a full suite of 64 bit applications,
including 3rd party commercial applications, that are "ready to run",
and millions of 64 bit AMD and Intel desktops and workstations have
already been deployed as Linux primary/Windows Guest.
If Windows Vista and Windows Guaranteed Agression is going to now
openly defy the now expiring Antitrust ruling in the United States by
illegally protecting their monopoly position by directly punishing OEMs
and Users who legally purchase Windows OEM versions for the purpose of
running it as a Windows client, then Windows Vista is no longer an
attractive product to the Linux market.
The Linux community will more likely opt to purchase "white box" laptop
and/or deskop machines, which have NO operating system, but are "Linux
Ready". These machines will then be configured with Linux, and if
Windows functionality is still desired, a license for Crossover or
Win4Lin will be purchased instead.
If Novell and Crossover or Win4Lin can work out an attractive OEM
package at an attractive price, it is quite possible that Novell could
knock Microsoft out of certain production lines, such as the AMD-64
based HP "Extreme Power" series, the Lennovo "Thinkpad" series, and the
Dell "Precision" series machines, possibly even phasing out the "Linux
hostile" machines completely. from those lines. These are all machines
that come in "Linux Laptop" configurations. They are designed to run
Linux with XGL in their optimized form.
The irony is that the power built into these machines is completely
wasted on Windows, including Vista, since there aren't enough 3rd party
64 bit applications to merit the cost and extra effort of 64 bit
Windows. Third party developers have almost ignored the Microsoft API
set for 64 bit applications.
Meanwhile, nearly all applications available for 32 bit Linux are also
available for 64 bit Linux, because the GCC compilers and libraries
have made all that "transparent" to the 99.9% of the code that doesn't
care, and other portable libraries have automated the remaining issues
such as serialization of 64 bit values.
These machines are expandable up to 4 gigabytes using a flat memory
model, and swap space on multi-drive systems can further accelerate and
expand the available virtual memory, making it possible to run large
complex applications that have previously only been available on UNIX
servers that used X11 displays.
OEMs may decide that they want to give users a choice, or include
multiple operating systems. If Dell, HP, and Lennovo can get SUSE,
Linspire, Crossover, and Win4Lin all together, for what they are
currently paying for Windows XP, and less than they will be paying for
Vista, and Vista customers using Linux start calling the Dell service
desk every 2-3 days to complain about the way WGA has "locked them
out", these big OEMs are very likely to dump Windows completely for
some lines, offering Linux with Crossover and/or Win4Lin instead. It
would break the monopoly (obviously the courts and DOJ aren't going to
be much use), and it would accelerate the rush to Linux.
Keep in mind that Apple has just increased their market share from 4%
to 12% of quarterly sales across the industry in terms of unit volumes,
by switching to Unix based OS/X, and providing full and flexible
support for the OSS software community. Today, Macs are showing up all
over, at Starbucks, at On Bon Pain, at any place where WiFi is
available and laptop users meet-and-greet, Mac is dominating. If OEMs
such as HP, Dell, and Lennovo (formerly IBM) just turn their futures
over to Microsoft by accepting all of Microsoft's restrictions and
conditions, they will continue to lose market share to Apple and White
box "Lindows" (Linux host/Windows emulation/guest) machines.
Why should I pay a DIME for an what amounts to an API suite that calls
me a thief for using software for which I paid a fair and legal price,
as part of the price of the machine.
Forget it. If I can't get a machine that fully supports me in doing
what I want to do, and won't let me use a key selling feature of the
product because WGA detected that Vista "wasn't in charge", then won't
use Vista at all. If I can get what I need by using Crossover and
Linux, then I'll use that even if it's slightlyl more expensive,
because I know that Microsoft isn't going to "pull the plug" whenever
it feels like it.
> ....................
> http://www.vanwensveen.nl/rants/microsoft/IhateMS.html
|
|
