In comp.os.linux.advocacy, flyer
<flyer@xxxxxxxxx>
wrote
on Thu, 5 Apr 2007 19:17:32 -0700
<MPG.207f4d98c95d4eef989761@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>:
> In article <1523223.nBfJ2ntLKH@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> newsgroups@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx says...
>> New Harris Poll: Vista awareness up, sales not
>>
>> ,----[ Quote]
>> | For its most recent poll, Harris surveyed online 2,223 U.S. adults
>> | between March 6 and 14, 2007 -- just about six weeks after the
>> | release of Windows Vista...
>> |
>> | March, 2007 % December, 2006 %
>> |
>> | Yes, I will upgrade to Windows Vista: 12% 20%
>> |
>> | No, I will stay with my current OS: 67% 31%
>> |
>> | Not sure: 20% 49%
>> `----
>>
>> http://blogs.zdnet.com/microsoft/?p=368
>>
>> This is looking terrible. Many prospective Linux users up for grabs.
>>
>
> You know, the very simplicity of it is startling. MS whitewashes XP, and
> THEN includes massive lockdown code which SCREWS customers and limits the
> useability of their PCs, all this made worse by overcharging.
>
> DUUUUUUUUUH! Screw customers, and the customers will return with clubs
> and take down your corp.
>
> Particularly if there is something to replace your demented corp. THANK
> YOU LINUX.
>
> It's happening right in front of our faces.
I'll admit to wondering how fast this will occur.
Microsoft is a very large company, and presumably will
take awhile to take down. At this point they're getting
$46.06B/year in gross revenue, with a net income of
$11.91B; this means they're spending $34.15B/year
on what not. (How much of that is for actual sales,
I'd have to look.)
If one naively assumes that we can get 5% more desktops
from Windows per year (that's 5% of existing Windows
desktops, not all desktops), and that there are 1 billion
desktops, we won't get a majority for more than a decade:
Year Microsoft Linux %Linux
Windows (all distros)
Whatever
(# of Desktops)
2000 1000000000 0 0.00%
2001 950000000 50000000 5.00%
2002 902500000 97500000 9.75%
2003 857375000 142625000 14.26%
2004 814506250 185493750 18.55%
2005 773780938 226219063 22.62%
2006 735091891 264908109 26.49%
2007 698337296 301662704 30.17%
2008 663420431 336579569 33.66%
2009 630249410 369750590 36.98%
2010 598736939 401263061 40.13%
2011 568800092 431199908 43.12%
2012 540360088 459639912 45.96%
2013 513342083 486657917 48.67%
2014 487674979 512325021 51.23% -- woohoo! --
2015 463291230 536708770 53.67%
2016 440126669 559873331 55.99%
2017 418120335 581879665 58.19%
2018 397214318 602785682 60.28%
2019 377353603 622646397 62.26%
Of course that's assuming an unchanging market (well,
XP hadn't really mutated all that much since 1999 or so
until Vista came out, and Vista is apparently warmed-over
XP SP3 anyway) and no recidivism back to Windows, and
a few other things (erm, what company was at 1 Infinite
Loop again?). No doubt someone can come up with a better
model, sales assumptions, additional data, more sensitive
wet digit/finger/thingy one can stick into the wind, etc.
(The preceding was done using oocalc2, a spreadsheet
offering which is part of the OpenOffice family. One could
also use Gnumeric.)
--
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