On May 11, 9:24 am, "amicus_curious" <A...@xxxxxxx> wrote:
> "John Bailo" <jaba...@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
>
> news:RpWdncFhSP4LptnbnZ2dnUVZ_oPinZ2d@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> > Roy Schestowitz wrote:
>
> > The Pump:
>
> >> | "Said another way, Microsoft achieved record breaking earnings during
> >> | the Vista launch quarter by taking money out of its assets, not
> >> | through amazing sales of Vista and Office."
>
> > The Dump:
>
> >http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070508/microsoft_insider_sales.html?.v=1
>
> > "NEW YORK (AP) -- Microsoft Corp. Chairman Bill Gates sold 3,995,300
> > shares
> > of common stock, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings.
> > In two Form 4s filed with the SEC Monday, Gates reported he sold the
> > shares
> > May 3 for $30.575 to $30.985 apiece."
>
> Well, good on Bill. Everybody needs a little walking around money, eh? How
> many shares does he have left? What percentage is that sale? Tell the
> whole story.
Generally, when someone sells almost 20 million shares of stock in
less than 30 days,
especially a major stockholder and Chairman of the board, this is read
as a negative
indicator for the stock. When executives believe that their stock is
likely to go higher,
they sell very little and wait until the prices increase.
When executive starts selling off huge amounts of stock over a short
period, that usually
means that the stock price is going down, and that the executive wants
to get as much out
as possible before proprietary information becomes public.
The last time Bill started dumping this aggressively, Microsoft stock
dropped from 30 to almost 22
on some bad news related to Vista delays and removal of features.
Could it be that Bill knows that Vista sales are falling way below
expectations and that OEMs who have
made minimum commitements based on Vista sales forcasts will be
revising their plans?
They might still want XP, but not at a premium price paid for Vista.
They may want to create
more attractive packages, especially for Retail, with more "flexible"
offerings. Microsoft is losing
some of it's bargaining leverage, and if they push too hard, they
could actually lose revenue as well.
When Paul Allen dumped his shares, it was just before another
substantial slide in stock prices.
Cashing out some stock because you think the price might drop isn't
necessarily illegal.
Making misleading announcements to the investment community to boost
the price while you are
dumping your own shares is illegal. Proving it beyond a reasonable
doubt in a criminal proceeding
is a whole different matter.
It doesn't look like the Bush administration wants to touch Microsoft,
or Haliburton, so it's unlikely that
anyone will be doing anything in court. On the other hand, Mutual
fund managers, pension fund
managers, and insurance fund managers really need to look at these
warning signs and decide
whether they really want to be the "deer in the headlights", wating
until the car smashes into them
before they "cash out".
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