I have said for many years that if Linux was found sitting next to
Windows on the retail shelves, that Linux would capture a substantial
portion of the market. Perhaps not "shutting out" Windows, but at
least capturing 30-40% of it's market class.
I just went to Circuit City this afternoon and found, on the retail
display shelf, that there was an Acer NetBook with an 8.5 inch screen,
512 MB RAM, and Linux in the FLASH drive. There were also TWO SDHD
Flash slots, which could be enough for 32 or even 64 gigabytes of
flash storage, it even had the WebCam. The Linux system didn't
actually show the penguin, or "Linux", but the full suite of
applications was there, and was ready to load up. I already have an
ASUS EEE, but I'm thinking I'd like to pick one of these new ASUS
machines up and see what it can do. At $309, it's pretty hard to pass
up. I just hope they aren't sold out by the time I get back there.
It looked like they had sold about 20 of them already, because I could
see in the case where the inventory USED to be. There were still
about 5 left. Maybe I'll make it back in time.
This is a big breakthrough for Linux, because it's the first time in
almost 16 years that a major competitor to Windows has been shown
running on a functional computer next to Windows. In this case, the
new computer was literally inches from Vista PCs costing more than
twice as much, and even then they had been deeply discounted. I also
noticed that there was still lots of excess unsold inventory in the
glass cabinet. It looks like it's going to be another really ugly
back-to-school season for Microsoft and the Vista pushing OEMs.
Come to think of it, I think the only indication of any sales at all
was the Acer/Linux NetBook.
I was also impressed when the sales person was helping someone else
with the machine, explaining how it ran Linux, came with an office
suite, and described some of the applications that came with the
machine. The guy wasn't ready to pull out his credit card, but he
looked at the Vista box for about 90 seconds, shook his head, looked
at the Linux box, and nodded. Something tells me that he was planning
to buy one of those, either for himself or for his kids.
I would see anything over 5 million units sold in the next two
quarters as a very loud signal to Acer that Linux is a Winner.
Remember that ASUS sold over 8 million units in the first two
quarters. If that number were sold in a single quarter, it would put
ASUS in the "top-10" and possibly even the "top 5" by unit volumes.
Typically, each of the top 5 OEMs sell between 10 and 20 million PCs
TOTAL per quarter.
In the best of years, about 200 million PCs are sold by roughly 15-20
OEMs, including "white box" makers and smaller "custom built" shops.
Unit volumes have been way down and Apple has moved into the number 3
position by unit volumes.
The Linux powered NetBook could at least help Acer be profitable.
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