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Re: Lessons from the Death of HD-DVD: Another Lethal Wound for Microsoft's Dying Empire

____/ Mark Kent on Saturday 23 February 2008 09:12 : \____

> Roy Schestowitz <newsgroups@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> espoused:
>> ____/ The Ghost In The Machine on Friday 22 February 2008 19:20 : \____
>>> In comp.os.linux.advocacy, nessuno@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> <nessuno@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>>  wrote
>>> on Fri, 22 Feb 2008 08:05:16 -0800 (PST)
>>> <02584918-9341-4abe-bb8d-be47664b4d75@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>:
>>>> <Quote>
>>>> [Death of HD-DVD was predictable.] Here's why HD-DVD's end should not
>>>> have been a surprise, what lessons can be learned from its death, and
>>>> what its demise means for Microsoft.
>>>> [HD-DVD--Bluray format war, Microsoft vs Sony...]] In the new HD video
>>>> market, Microsoft again wanted to push its Windows Media codecs while
>>>> Sony wanted to establish its blue-violet laser technology.
>>> [massive snip for brevity]
>>>> http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2008/02/21/lessons-from-the-death-of-hd-dvd/
>>> I'm not sure about the "lethal" part.  It's not like
>>> they're dead yet, though I'll admit I wonder how long this
>>> sort of nonsense can continue.
>>> However, the imminent demise of Usenet has been repeatedly
>>> predicted, for example, and it's yet to happen (though I
>>> can't say its state is all that good).
>>> On a more relevant (and less happy) note: the Year of
>>> the Linux Desktop has also been proudly proclaimed for
>>> many years -- and has yet to happen, though as far as
>>> *my* desktops are concerned it's the default option,
>>> and presumably for a number of others posting here.
>>> And Microsoft continues to be hugely profitable.
>>> So we'll see.
>> Ghost,
>> One theme that I see recurring in your posts is that Microsoft has deep
>> pockets. It does not.
>> Steve Ballmer has deep pockets. Bill Gates has deep pockets. Many ex-Softies
>> are millionaires. But they won't donate their assets and saving to Microsoft
>> if it operated at a loss and buys its own stock.
>> SEC filings are tricky. Novell claims that it has wealth, but at the same
>> time it's documented that it had trouble with the bank and the Finance Heads
>> over their admitted financial misconduct (cooking the book). You know what
>> they say about this? "Everyone is doing it". Welcome to the US of A. Shades
>> of Worldcom and Enron...
> Microsoft is in very poor shape for a company of its size.  The plan to
> purchase Yahoo was wonderfully misconceived, merely serving to see
> Microsoft's shares discounted by the value of Yahoo.  Oddly, they don't
> seem to have recovered, either.  I think that the stock markets are
> beginning to see that the only "asset" Microsoft had was its monopoly,
> and it is losing that rapidly. 


Mind the first few minutes. He doesn't mention Microsoft by name.

> It is, in my opinion, massively 
> over-valued for its prospects, but I don't expect the less technical
> traders to recognise this for some time.  They will, in the end, though.
> Microsoft could be turned around with new management, breaking the
> company up into smaller bits, and perhaps buying something in with
> value, but anything which is a software house is unlikely to help
> Microsoft, as their own culture will destroy any value in that purchase,
> as the stock markets have already recognised, hence the reaction to the
> Yahoo plan.

Smaller chunks a la Lenovo? Either way, Microsoft will stick around, but like
IBM it will become something altogether different. Like Novell with NetWare,
Windows will stay around and float for quite a while.

> I'd suggest that Microsoft's best route to survival would be a merger
> with Oracle...  that would keep both of them going for another ten
> years...

Oracle uses Linux. That would not work.

                ~~ Best of wishes

Roy S. Schestowitz      |    Open the Gate$ to Hell
http://Schestowitz.com  |    RHAT Linux     |     PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
 11:05:02 up 29 days, 20:59,  3 users,  load average: 0.77, 1.04, 1.24
      http://iuron.com - Open Source knowledge engine project

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