<Quote>
Daniel Eran Dilger
John Dvorak looked back at "another crappy career year for tech" and
decided "Microsoft, Apple, and Google were to blame." Being right on
one count out of three isn't a bad record for Dvorak, who typically
gets everything wrong. Considering his self-flagellating lamentations
of 2007 in PC Mag makes for a comical framework for looking back at a
year that was particularly distressing to Windows Enthusiasts.
Dvorak's Crapy Year.
Among the problems for his "crappy" 2007 was that some irrelevant
dictionary added "w00t" as its word of the year, and that the scrappy
Nintendo Wii humiliated the Microsoft Xbox 360 and Sony PlayStation 3,
as I predicted would likely happen. Microsoft was well represented in
his list of complaints, with the WGA fiasco and the Windows Vista
Yawn.
PlayStation 3 vs. Xbox 360 vs. Nintendo Wii
Clearly, 2007 was not a good year for Microsoft, but Dvorak forgot to
mention the worst of Microsoft's problems:
The Zune: nobody cared about Microsoft' embarrassing predicament a the
hands of the iPod throughout 2007. After squirting out a tepid updates
that made it look more competitive with the low end of last year's
iPod line, Apple countered Microsoft's best efforts with the release
of a series of new models that trounced Zune 2.0, from the thin Nano
with games and video output to the Touch featuring a full web browser
and live podcast playback over the web. Microsoft was left only to
brag that it was finally able to sell off most of its 2006 inventory-
already reported as sold-at fire sale prices.
Windows Mobile: after struggling for a decade to get WinCE installed
on something, Microsoft's plans largely focused on mobile smartphones.
Unfortunately, in 2007 Apple targeted the same market with a device
even hotter than the iPod. Even worse, while far more sophisticated
and attractive, the iPhone paired with a service plan costs hundreds
less than an entry level Windows Mobile phone such as the basic
Motorola Q. No wonder Apple outsold the entire range of Windows Mobile
devices in its first quarter of sales, and ended up with a stronger
showing in web stats than every other mobile browser combined.
Proprietary Formats: one key element to Microsoft's monopolistic
control over the PC has been its use of proprietary formats to force
users into buying everything from Microsoft. However, in 2007 a
variety of events eroded into that stranglehold. Windows Media DRM was
given the final boot in audio with MPEG AAC, and video with H.264. The
ISO rejected Microsoft's OOXML advanced to replace the existing Open
Document standard for productivity applications. Even DirectX is
facing increasing competition from Mac, Linux, Playstation, and Wii
applications that all use OpenGL for their graphics.
The Vista Yawn: Microsoft discovered, as I predicted, that 2007 wasn't
going to be like 1995. Retail Vista sales were disappointing to say
the least, corporate interest was simply absent, and even hardware
makers balked at loading up Vista Home Basic and forcing their users
to upgrade to a more expensive version that actually works as
expected.
Windows 95 and Vista: Why 2007 Won't Be Like 1995
Vista uptake has been reported to be about half that of Windows XP,
despite the fact that the PC market has grown significantly since 2001
and the reality that many Windows PC users regularly buy new computers
just to run away from their old infected machines rather than paying
to clean their old system out. Exacerbating the Vista problem is the
pestilent detail that an increasing number of users are now buying
Macs so they can run both yesterday's Windows XP and upgrade to Mac OS
X without the security problems, spyware, and adware push.
[Dvorak's April 07 comment that Vista's problems due to PC makers...]
Dvorak recommended that Microsoft build its own PC and screw over its
Windows licensee partners. Yes, that worked so well with the Zune!
Perhaps if Microsoft shipped its own Windows PC, it wouldn't break
compatibility between its MS PC and third party boxes, but imagine the
profits behind selling Office for MS PC-Windows separately from Office
for regular Windows.
The downside to Dvorak's hardware fantasy is that Microsoft has no
expertise in making or marketing functional hardware. Look at the
billion dollar losses behind the Xbox line, along with its 33% or
greater record for hardware failure. And look at what Microsoft did to
WebTV, MSNTV, and even its best ideas for music players, handheld
gaming, SPOT watches and other hardware that all stunk to high heaven.
[Dvorak complaints about Apple, Google...]
Microsoft was up 19.2%, Google 50.2%, but Apple was up 133.5% [in
2007]. No wonder Dvorak is kvetching.
[Dvorak's bad predictions about iPhone...]
Of course, reality is beyond him because Dvorak has no technical
competency in predicting what will work out and what won't. Why does
Dvorak command $40,000 speaking engagements despite not having written
anything interesting, accurate, or thought provoking in the last
decade? He's a professional troll. Fortunately for him, nobody in the
speaking engagement circuit or sound-bite seeking world of New
Journalism cares about substance.
</Quote>
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2008/01/02/john-dvorak-conceeds-2007-was-a-%e2%80%9ccrappy-year%e2%80%9d-for-windows-enthusiasts/
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