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____/ The Ghost In The Machine on Tuesday 18 November 2008 01:07 : \____
> On Nov 17, 1:35 pm, Roy Schestowitz <newsgro...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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>> ____/ ness...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx on Monday 17 November 2008 19:41 : \____
>> > <Quote>
>> > Minister of Government Administration and Reform Heidi Grande Roeys
>> > said she was granting 2 million kroner ($285,000) to the national
>> > center for free software to adapt and promote OpenOffice for such
>> > government use as public reports, accounting and archives....
>> > In April 2006, the Norwegian government announced a long term program
>> > to step up use of open-source software to reduce its dependency on
>> > computer giants like Microsoft.
>> > </Quote>
>> They adopt OpenOffice.org?!?! They must have missed that *ahem* 'study' that
>> urmmmm... Microsoft just 'found'.
>> Truthfully, OpenOffice.org was downloaded over 10 million times in about 3
>> weeks. How many copies of Office does Microsoft license each week? How much
>> of it is 'pirated', i.e. given by Microsoft for free to keep Google Apps,
>> OOo and the likes of them from gaining 'too much' of a momentum?
> One can establish an extremely rough upper bound
> easily enough; Microsoft's raw revenues are $60B/year.
> That translates into about $3.5B over the 3-week period,
> and if one assumes that Microsoft Office is (a) the primary
> revenue generator and (b) sells for $1000 retail, then
> that translates into 3.5 million new licenses over that
> 21 days, max.
Microsoft is entering debt, Ghost. That's a fact, acknowledged by Microsoft
itself. Like the Federal reserve, they could be keeping a poker face. They got
Microsoft earns money from its software in very few countries. In most
countries it gives it away in order to stay relevant. Even in the developed
world, Microsoft software is now almost free... because GNU/Linux is doing
well, particularly on sub-notebooks.
> If one instead assumes $150 retail (student variant), the
> figure ups to 23 million new installations. The real
> bound is hopefully somewhere in between these two.
> No doubt someone might point me at the actual figure,
> if it's publically available.
You're bound to miscalculate here. They sell things like campus licences that
are anti-competitive and even got sort of banned in Norway, IIRC, thanks to
> I'm not sure I want to accept either of my generated
> figures, absent more digging.
> If one incorporate piracy (which cannot be officially
> counted!) the figures inflate further. I frankly would
> think that 230 million new Office installations over
> a 3 week period is a highly unrealistic number, if one
> assumes 90% of all installations are pirated, but even
> a 10% piracy rate ups things from 23 to 25.6 million.
> If one uses the lower 3.5 million, one gets either 3.89
> million or 35 million.
"Piracy"? You mean lockin/gifts from Microsoft, right? Microsoft is endorsing
> If one assumes the fantastically low 0.1% adoption rate
> for those 10M OpenOffice downloads, one gets 10,000 new
> users of OpenOffice; if one assumes a (hopefully more
> reasonable) 10% adoption rate, one gets of course 1M.
> If one assumes the highly optimistic 99% adoption rate,
> one will get 9.9M new OO installations. Which is closest
> to right? Absent more info, I've not a clue, though one
> hopes for the best case scenario.
One sure thing is, OOo gains ground quickly and its only rival is $0 Office (or
$3 Windows+Office), which is killing Microsoft's cash cows.
> (In my case, I download it through Gentoo, so have no idea
> whether I'm counted therein or not, or how many times,
> as there are also issues regarding new release versions.)
A lot of copies come to GNU/Linux through the repos, so these are not counted.
The same goes for virtually any GNU/Linux distribution, which typically comes
The true numbers you will not find or be able to obtain from Microsoft. Watch
Microsoft is proud to have adopted a modern-age Goebbels-like strategy. That's
the company's policy.
~~ Best of wishes
Roy S. Schestowitz | "World ends in five minutes - please log out"
http://Schestowitz.com | GNU is Not UNIX | PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
http://iuron.com - proposing a non-profit search engine
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