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____/ Goblin on Tuesday 08 Sep 2009 23:15 : \____
> bbgruff wrote:
>> Obviously, Windows 7 will be extremely successful.
>> How do we show *how* successful though?
>> - and how will we (say by the end of this year) be able to convince any
>> doubters (Heaven forbid!) in this group?
>>
>> Logically, by agreeing here and now (before the smelly stuff hits the
>> rotating thingy) just how successful Windows *needs* to be to
>> be "successful".
>>
>> Let's try some sums.
>> I'll make some assumptions wrt numbers, and you guys feel free to correct me
>> if you think I'm too far out:-
>>
>> 1. Total number of "Windows-capable" computers in the world is between
>> 1,200M and 1,500M
>> (Of these, maybe 1,000M are connected to the Internet).
>>
>> 2. Sales of PCs is the order of 300M peryear, the vast majority having
>> Windows pre-installed.
>>
>> 3. Thus, we expect the "take-over" by Windows 7 to be at a rate of about
>> 20%% to 25% a year.
>> Shall we say 1.5% per month?
>> That really is "toning it down a bit" to 18% a year.
>>
>> 4. This take-up will be helped by the fact that virtually all netbooks will
>> ship with Windows 7, and thus Windows 7 will no longer be fighting against
>> XP on netbooks (or anything else), as was the case with Vista.
>>
>> 5. In addition, we must remember that:-
>> a) All new machines since July(?) will have sold with
>> a "W7 upgrade free" option
>> b) This will be such a superb OS that people will be buying it
>> retail, assisted by MS's king low-price pre-order offers.
>> (and reduced prices until end 2009)
>>
>> Thus, by 1st December, we expect to see:-
>> 4 months of new P.C. "free upgrade" sales
>> Lots of early adopters buying retail
>> 1 full month of "pre-installed" sales.
>> Up to 2% still using RC etc.
>>
>> That is, on 1st December, we expect to see "Market (user) Share" figures of
>> at least 10% for Windows 7, and thereafter increasing at 1.5% per month.
>>
>> Ambitious? Hardly - that's about the rate that XP went, and what MS needs
>> to do to replace what it now has in the field by Windows 7 over a period of
>> about 5 years - say by end 2014.
>>
>> We'll see how it goes, eh?
>> - and please feel free to dispute those figures, but would prefer logical
>> argument to rhetoric.
>>
>>
> I am not going to dispute those figures since it will only serve to turn
> this thread into a time wasting set of irrelevant arguments perpetrated
> by those whose reason for being in COLA is at best, pointless.
>
> What I will ask is this. Where's the part of your post highlighting
> WHAT is exactly better in Windows 7 and what makes it worth the upgrade.
> Obviously in respect of Vista users its a no brainer, but for XP and
> any other OS...what exactly can you do in 7 that I cannot in Linux? or
> indeed an XP user?
>
> All I see in your post is a series of figures and to me the way you seek
> to go about convincing "doubters" is by quoting its market
> penetration....maybe bigger profits = better OS in your book? I'm old
> fashioned and believe that a piece of software has to actually be good
> on the basis of its features, not how well its managed to swamp the
> market place....maybe thats me being silly.
>
> Take the analogy of a Bentley and a Corsa....theres alot more Corsa's on
> the road than Bentleys but which one is the better car? Popularity !=
> greatness and maybe thats why the "gift" loyal Microsoft users were
> rewarded with was Vista.
>
> I'll let those who still use Vista think about that in their own time, I
> need not say anymore.
Microsoft could, in principle, give Vista 7 free of charge and then claim
'success' (market share), like it did in "netbooks". What we need to watch
though is their sharply-declining profit. Microsoft and Windows can't survive
without paying wages. The same can't be said about Linux.
- --
~~ Best of wishes
Roy S. Schestowitz | Viruses to Linux are like cancer to a shark
http://Schestowitz.com | GNU is Not UNIX | PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
roy pts/0 :0 Sun Sep 6 23:51 still logged in
http://iuron.com - proposing a non-profit search engine
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