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Re: 2010: The Year of the Linux Desktop

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____/ Rex Ballard on Tuesday 05 Jan 2010 21:39 : \____

> On Jan 1, 5:45 pm, Tim Smith <reply_in_gr...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>> In article <2386283.5fSG56m...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
>> Roy Schestowitz <newsgro...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> 
>> > GNOME 3.0 is coming in September and KDE 4.4 in February.
> 
>> I remember mere weeks before Windows 7 was released for sale, long after
>> anyone who wanted could obtain the beta, you said that since it was not
>> released, it was vaporware, and it was wrong for people to write about
>> it.
> 
> It's not really that you shouldn't write about Windows 7, but rather
> that what you, or others who have received their "free" previews of
> Windows as a result of being faithful Microsoft aerdvocates, might
> have a different perspective than those who have to pay real money for
> upgrades, or have to buy new PCs to get Windows 7 with all of it's
> "enhanced experience" features.  I already know that my Y730 IdeaBook
> won't support "enhanced experience" so for me it's "good ole winders"
> but a whole lot slower, and eating almost 4 times more memory and disk
> I/O than XP.
> 
> As usual, Microsoft has made a goal of trying to grab every available
> resource on top-of-the-line machines -- which today means Dual-core
> 2.5 Ghz CPUs, 4 Gig RAM, and 500 Gig hard drives.  At least Windows 7
> lets you shrink the partition, but you may need a flash drive to boot
> anything other than Windows since Vista/Window 7 use a new master
> cylinder format.
> 
>> So how come you have written extensively about KDE 4.4 on your site?
>> It's vaporware, according to your definition, and should not be written
>> about.
> 
> Preview versions have been available, freely downloaded, with no
> restrictions about what can be said, what  benchmarks and comparisons
> can be published.  Of course, there are the usual caveats, such as the
> possibility that updates might render your laptop unusable, forcing
> you to switch to the GNOME desktop so that you can switch to the
> "stable" version of KDE 4.3.
> 
> What makes an "official" release of a Linux or OSS product is that
> there is a vendor willing to provide support to corporate customers
> who might need to call them any time of day or night and ask for
> assistance - a service for which they will pay quite well if the
> vendor provides reliable and prompt quality service.
> 
>> It's amazing how much of your site would have to go away if you decided
>> to apply to yourself the standards you tell others they should meet.
> 
> Probably true.  Fortunately, this is an unmoderated newsgroup, so
> nobody's posts actually get plonked (deleted from archives) unless
> they are criminal in nature (copyright violations, profanity,
> harassment, promoting criminal activities such as pedophilia...).
> 
> You have to admit, Microsoft had a good strategy for Windows 7.  They
> made Vista so bad that even Windows 95 would look better in
> comparison, so that everybody would not try to compare Windows 7 to
> Windows XP, especially in Benchmarks.
> 
> Of course, corporate customers are making these comparisons, and are
> considering other options such as Linux and Virtualization to permit
> them to continue to use Windows XP for a few more years until they can
> transition to something less resource intensive.  Many are also
> considering alternatives to Microsoft Office including Lotus Symphony
> and Oracle OpenOffice.  In both cases, the vendors encourage customers
> and client to download free versions of the software and offer service
> and support for a modest annual fee.  Many are discovering the
> convenience of Google Docs as well.
> 
> Microsoft is facing real competition from IBM, Oracle, and Google.
> It's highly likely that this will have a negative impact on
> Microsoft's revenue.  How much of an impact remains to be seen.
> 
> After 30 years of putting up with Microsoft's inferior products, I
> have learned not to underestimate the capabilities of their marketing
> machine and their legal machine at creating obstructions to
> competitors who could seriously adversely impact Microsoft's revenues
> and profit margins.
> 
> At the same time, Microsoft has not been meeting the needs of it's
> customers, OEMs and CIOs.  The CIOs have been ordered to stick with
> XP, and the OEMs are looking at larger and larger losses on each
> machine sold.  Add to that increased pressure from companies like Acer
> and Apple.  Apple is maintaining huge profit margins, and Acer is
> offering compute4rs for as little as $399.
> 
> Given that a high end Intel processor goes for $200, 4 gig of laptop
> memory goes for $100, 500g drives go for $100, and Windows 7 goes for
> about $60, plus the cost of case, chassis, and assembly, it pretty
> much means that even with quantity discounts, they are loosing $100
> per machine.  And many customers have opted not to get the service
> contract because they know that installing Linux voids the service
> contract.
> 
> While Microsoft and Apple are sitting pretty with 80% margins, HP,
> Dell, Acer, Lenovo, and E-Machines are suffering losses and have to
> subsidize their PC divisions.  Add to that a reduction of distributors
> resulting from the loss of retailers like CompUSA and Circuit City and
> you can begin to see that something has gotta give.
> 
> People are getting sick of "another slow version of Windows", viruses,
> malware, back doors, snitchware, torpedoes, and poor technical support
> that doesn't even try to diagnose why a computer keeps crashing, or
> why it won't boot, or even how to rescue thousands of files that
> haven't been backed up.  They are starting to look at Mac OS/X and say
> "maybe Unix and Linux aren't so bad after all".

You argued that "It's highly likely that this will have a negative impact on
Microsoft's revenue.  How much of an impact remains to be seen."

Well, we have already seen Windows revenue falling 40% in the latest quarter.
Selling XP for $5 (or kickbacks) was not a smart strategy because Linux is
back with ARMs and Microsoft cannot justify the cost of Windows.

- -- 
		~~ Best of wishes

Roy S. Schestowitz      |    Useless fact: 12345679 x 8 = 98765432
http://Schestowitz.com  |  Open Prospects   |     PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
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      http://iuron.com - knowledge engine, not a search engine
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