On Jan 5, 2:47 pm, Roy Schestowitz <newsgro...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
> Hunches and predictions for open source in 2009
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | # OpenSimulator will increasingly challenge Second Life for those who wish to
> | host their own virtual worlds.
Hopefully we will see some convergence in terms of client
compatibility rather than a "VR Wars" scenario.
> | # A new non-Java, non-Mono open source virtual world project will start to
> | get serious traction this year.
That might be more of a challenge. Java and Mono do a lot of stuff
"under the covers" that programmers don't usually have to deal with.
Maybe someone will do an Open Source version of VRML? :-)
> http://www.sutor.com/newsite/blog-open/?p=3244
>
> Recent:
>
> 10 Linux Predictions for 2009
>
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | Everyone wants to know what's going to happen in the new
> | year as if anyone can accurately predict these things.
> | However, one can deduce, with reasonable accuracy, that
> | there will be innovations that are designed to get our
> | attention. This is my list of Linux-oriented predictions
> | for 2009.
> | The keyword for 2009 is Innovation.
I would agree with this one.
> | 1. Buyouts/Mergers - 2009 will see its share of company
> | buyouts and mergers--all innovation-related. Larger
> | companies will buy up smaller ones with innovative products
> | and services. Many new open source millionaires will be
> | created through these transitions.
There will be less capital available for mergers and IPOs and the SEC
will we watching more closely. We will probably begin to see more
convergence and take-overs of OSS projects that are successful. At
the same time, companies who have learned to play nice with the OSS
community will gain some competitive advantages. Microsoft will be
under some serious pressure from these companies and projects.
> | 2. Gadgets, Gadgets, and more Gadgets - This will be the
> | Year of the Gadget and they'll be Linux-powered. You'll see
> | dozens of new gadgets from phones to home appliances to
> | weather stations come out in 2009 all designed to attract
> | your attention and your money. Watch for rapidly falling
> | prices on these little gems along the way too.
This is more of an extension of what has been happening over the last
2 years. With a new administration, we may see more pressure on
Microsoft related to their monopolistic and anti-competitive
behaviors. The "hot products" will be more focused around
collaboration - telecommuting, and reduction of travel for most
corporate information workers, accounting, legal, and other non "nuts-
and-bolts production" work. In effect, the "greenest of the green"
technology.
We will start to see commercial and corporate use of services such as
Second Life to help market real products to real people, especially in
the fashion industry. This might be the year your wife can enter
10-15 measurements, and get an Avitar that is such a close match that
she can actually see what she would look like in any outfit. ANY
outfit she likes could be shipped to her in her size within 2-3 days.
We may also see this become part of the retailer toolkit, but perhaps
not in the next 2 years.
> http://www.daniweb.com/blogs/entry3726.html
>
> Will 2009 Be Open or Closed?
>
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | As the end of 2008 approaches, people's thoughts naturally
> | turn to 2009, and what it might hold. The dire economic
> | situation means that many will be wondering what the year
> | will bring in terms of employment and their financial
> | situation. This is not the place to ponder such things, nor
> | am I qualified to do so. Instead, I'd like to discuss a
> | matter that is related to these larger questions, but which
> | focusses on issues particularly germane to Linux Journal:
> | will 2009 be a year in which openness thrives, or one in
> | which closed thinking re-asserts itself?
I see two trends here. Many organizations are looking to
cut costs, without cutting workers. Microsoft is likely to get
hit hard. Vista and Office 2007 don't offer enough of a
real productivity gain to merit upgrades.
As a result, companies will continue to reject upgrades to
Vista and Office 2007, sticking with Windows XP and Office XP.
At the same time, they will be looking more seriously at Open Document
Format products. They will be looking at Lotus Symphony (or Notes 8),
Star Office, and "commercialized" versions of OpenOffice. We may also
see Corporations generating and publishing standard corporate
templates
and Wizards for these ODF products.
By the end of 2009, about 90% of all PCs will have some form of ODF
product
on them, and users will be encouraged to distribute revisable
documents in ODF
and final documents in PDF.
> | [...]
> |
> http://www.linuxjournal.com/content/will-2009-be-open-or-closed
> 2008 to be year of non-desktop Linux
The success of sub-notebooks such as the ASUS EEE and the Acer Aspire
based on Linux will probably encourage both companies to start
marketing Linux based PCs more aggressively. It seems that
distribution channels such as Cell Phone retailers are much more
willing to sell the Linux versions of these products.
Meanwhile, traditional PC retailers will continue to see profit
pressures as margins on Vista machines disappear completely. Many of
the big franchises, perhaps including Circuit City, will start closing
more and more of their stores, or reducing their selection of PCs.
Linux based PCs from ASUS, Acer, and possibly another "third string"
player will provide higher profits to the retailers, which will
trigger more sales of Linux based PCs.
It's also likely that Dell and HP will appeal to the Obama
Administration for extension and stronger enforcement of the Antitrust
ruling. They will probably cite the 4,000 some issues that were
simply dismissed as "without merit" by the Bush administration. MSNBC
gave Obama a great deal of support, but I doubt Obama is going to want
to support Microsoft's continued 85% profit margins when workers are
getting laid off. Dell and HP may also want the competitive
advantages that Acer and Lenovo have in other countries. Dell and HP
will offer virtualized machines which run Windows and Linux
concurrently, with each one started independently.
Obama will get a laptop he can take out of the White House, and it
will run NSA hardened Linux.
Most government agencies will be formally switching to Linux, and
mandating the switch for many systems, especially laptops.
> http://blogs.the451group.com/opensource/2008/01/03/2008-to-be-year-of...
> 2008: Not the year of the Linux desktop
A good description of the nature of the Linux market. Key point.
Even most Linux users buy their PC preloaded with Windows on it
because the OEMs generally require special agreements. Most "No-OS"
machines sold in the United States are sold to resellers such as
Emperor Linux, other Linux PC sellers, or businesses who have clearly
chosen to run Linux instead of Windows as a corporate policy.
Most other Linux users just get the Windows license included, which
gives them the rights to run Windows as a virtualized client - so that
they have the best of both systems. They get the performance,
reliability, and security of Linux, and they get the ability to run
their favorite legacy applications as well.
IBM has been doing that for about 16 years now, putting both UNIX and
MVS LPARs on their mainframes, so that users could have the best of
both worlds on one machine. Linux LPARs have created new demand for
the mainframes. It has also assured continued support for legacy MVS
systems.
> http://www.itwire.com/content/view/15951/1148/
Will will probably continue to see Linux in more "appliances". With
Digital TV going live this year, there will probably be millions of
new Linux/Unix powered converter boxes, as well as more people
switching to digital Cable.
We will be seeing more Linux powered cell phones, and sub-notebooks
with built-in cell-phones or USB cellular modems. We will especially
see more women carrying sub-notebooks in their purses or pocket-books.
Even though Linux devices will become more pervasive, there will still
be little brand recognition for Linux, because Linus has not tied
trademark recognition to the copyrights. Unlike BSD licenses, Linux
distributors using pre-installed Linux don't even have to attribute
Linux in a visible public place.
We will probably also see more Linux appliances - including external
storage, printers, HDTV, DVRs, and telephone devices. Cameras, video
cameras, kiosks, and even ATMs running Linux will also be more common,
and most modern cash registers will be Linux based.
We may also see more USB based Linux devices. They will be the size
of "thumb drives" but have the ability to run Linux applications.
As Linux continues to build a reputation for reliability, security,
stability, and flexibility, as well as ease of maintenance, Linux and
OSS will continue to take a more dominant role, gradually edging
Microsoft's Windows, Vista, and Office products out of their position
as "must have, must upgrade" products.
OEMs are also likely to be a bit more aggressive in the next round of
negotiations. Windows 7 is still vaporware, and Vista is killing
profits. Many OEMs are back to losing money on each PC sold, and they
can't "make it up in volume" because the margins are gone. As more
Linux users purchase new PCs for the purpose of running Linux, they
may be less inclined to purchase service contracts, accessories, and
software from the OEM - unless the OEM offers a service contract that
includes coverage for PCs that are running Linux.
More OEMs may start including Linux distribution DVDs with their
product, giving their customers a supportable product, and offering
support for an additional nominal fee.
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