Roy Schestowitz wrote:
> __/ [ Rex Ballard ] on Friday 04 August 2006 23:39 \__
>
> > I just posted an article based on the "pay it forward", approach.
>
> Link? PDF? I'd be interested in reading more. *smile*
http://groups.google.com/group/comp.os.linux.advocacy/msg/cae501634fc8340e
> > I crunched the numbers based on each Linux user "turning" an average of
> > 1 Linux user every six months, starting in 1993. I know I average
> > about one new Linux user every month.
> >
> > 1/1/1993 1 2
> > 6/30/1993 1 6
> > 12/27/1993 1 14
> > 6/25/1994 1 30
> > 12/22/1994 1 62
> > 6/20/1995 1 126
> > 12/17/1995 1 254
> > 6/14/1996 1 510
> > 12/11/1996 1 1,022
> > 6/9/1997 1 2,046
> > 12/6/1997 1 4,094
> > 6/4/1998 1 8,190
> > 12/1/1998 1 16,382
> > 5/30/1999 1 32,766
> > 11/26/1999 1 65,534
> > 5/24/2000 1 131,070
> > 11/20/2000 1 262,142
> > 5/19/2001 1 524,286
> > 11/15/2001 1 1,048,574
> > 5/14/2002 1 2,097,150
> > 11/10/2002 1 4,194,302
> > 5/9/2003 1 8,388,606
> > 11/5/2003 1 16,777,214
> > 5/3/2004 1 33,554,430
> > 10/30/2004 1 67,108,862
> > 4/28/2005 1 134,217,726
> > 10/25/2005 1 268,435,454
> > 4/23/2006 1 536,870,910
> > 10/20/2006 1 1,073,741,822
> > 4/18/2007 1 2,147,483,646
>
> So there's a future prediction here, as well as the argument that between
> half a billion to a billion users use Linux (or dual boot) at present.
> Unless, of course, I am misinterpreting the figures. That seems to suggest
> that most of the world's computer users use Linux at some level of capacity.
This is just a pure "what if" scenario. However, there are attrition
rates, market growth is usually more like a sine wave. Linux is still
growing at over 50% per year, but that's down from as much as 200% per
year a few years ago. Of course, Linux has several distributions which
can increase momentum and drive new deployments.
Based on last confirmed estimates, the Linux/Unix (excluding Macs)
market had grown to roughly 7%, and grew at over 50% for the next 4
years following. 7 percent is roughly 70 million users. That would
put the market at about 350 million users. Even another 40% would
still be 141 million new users, and would put the total count at over
1/2 billion deployments. When you add the embedded machines powered by
Linux, you probably have over 1 billion Linux deployments. Of course
this includes the router, the cable modem, the WiFi hub, and the
digital cable tuner box and the DVR, and even the tuner in the HDTV
television set.
> --
> Roy S. Schestowitz | "Spam enchanted evening..."
> http://Schestowitz.com | GNU/Linux ¦ PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
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