__/ [ Mark Kent ] on Friday 28 July 2006 23:07 \__
> begin oe_protect.scr
> nessuno@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <nessuno@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> espoused:
>> There hasn't been much good news from Microsoft lately, in spite of the
>> strong revenue. No one can predict the future, but threats to
>> Microsoft's monopoly lock-in model are looming on all fronts, and they
>> are certainly shaking investor confidence now.
>>
>> 1. Continued delays in Vista are bad for morale, they reflect badly on
>> Microsoft's basic competence (why has it taken them so long?), and they
>> give competitors valuable time to make inroads.
>>
>> 2. MS has been forced into at least nominal acceptance of ODF. Right
>> now the financial impact on MS is small, but the threat to the MS cash
>> cow is big.
>>
>> 3. Apple has moved into Intel, and can now run Windows inside a
>> secure, slick OS. They also have an advertising budget, and are
>> hitting the security issue hard.
>>
>> 4. Security has improved in Windows since the days when Windows bugs
>> brought the internet to a crawl, but security is still a daily hassle
>> for Windows users. Vista is supposed to bring improvement---certainly
>> MS has been working on it---but current assessments and
>> prognostications are mixed. Vista is unlikely to be as secure as Apple
>> OS X or Linux.
>>
>> 5. Xbox is still losing money. It's supposed to be illegal for a
>> monopoly to sell at a loss to drive competitors out of business, but
>> then I'm not a lawyer, and this has been MS's strategy for a long time.
>> So far it's not working for Xbox, and it shakes confidence in Zune and
>> other projects such as Microsoft's move into supercomputing. Also,
>> Microsoft search is still a poor second to Google.
>>
>> 6. Hardware vendors are starting to offer Linux, and are advertising
>> it. Perhaps the greatest significance of this is the move toward
>> greater independence from Microsoft by the vendors.
>>
>> 7. Linux distributions have matured greatly in the last two years. If
>> the improvement continues at this rate, Linux will look really good in
>> a couple more years. Also the mainstream press is noticing Linux much
>> more than it was previously.
>>
>> 8. DRM and WGA are public relations disasters for Microsoft. WGA
>> especially has alienated large numbers of people.
>>
>> 9. Firefox has taken significant market share away from IE, showing
>> tens of millions of people that MS is not the only source of software
>> in the universe, and forcing MS to play catch up and divert resources
>> into the previously neglected IE. There is no profit in this, it's
>> just a holding action to prevent further market loss.
>>
>> 10. Google has led the way in web based computing, and Microsoft is
>> playing catch up here, too. Also, Google is starting to offer free
>> software (it runs on Linux, too), like Picassa.
>>
>> 11. There have been notable defections of talent from Microsoft, to
>> Google and other places. Google has taken center stage in the public
>> mind as a center of innovation.
>>
>> 12. The EU antitrust action is proceeding, and as of this date it
>> appears that MS will have to pay the big fine. This is also a public
>> relations disaster for Microsoft.
>>
>> In fact, I can't think of a single trend that looks good for Microsoft
>> right now, except for the fact that Vista probably will appear maybe
>> next summer.
Thanks for a timely dozen. It provides a summary which, even if not complete,
is at least enough to pull 'off the shelf' and use for arguments/allegation.
> The one thing I'd add is that the major hardware growth area is not in
> PCs, it's in devices of various kinds. Linux is making a very very
> strong play in many areas, including consumer devices like the Nokia
> N770, several Motorola phones, including A680, the GP2X portable
> game/multi-media console (remember when the trolls here used to claim
> that linux couldn't do multi-media?!), sat nav (TomTom GO700, GO910),
> the new generation Palm PDAs are all linux, the Sharp Zaurus, all manner
> of CPE, including linksys wireless routers, as well as super-computing,
> set-top boxes (Tivo, etc.).
>
> There's not much reason to invest in MS just now.
Last night Microsoft said that PC's are bound to be replaced by mobile
devices. That's bad news for them. Merely the entire industry is liaising to
create a Linux-based mobile platform. That will definitely have some deep
impact.
Best wishes,
Roy
--
Roy S. Schestowitz | Reversi for Linux/Win32: http://othellomaster.com
http://Schestowitz.com | GNU/Linux ¦ PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
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