begin oe_protect.scr
The Ghost In The Machine <ewill@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> espoused:
> In comp.os.linux.advocacy, Roy Schestowitz
><newsgroups@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> wrote
> on Wed, 15 Nov 2006 18:57:12 +0000
><1219963.vYcG4UuruX@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>:
>> Has Microsoft conceded the desktop OS market to Linux?
>>
>> ,----[ Quote ]
>> | Microsoft has long dominated the home desktop Operating System market
>> | while Unix and Unix-like systems have dominated the server and
>> | datacenter world. Have Microsoft's continuous product delays,removal
>> | of highly touted new features, addition of more intrusive DRM and the
>> | introduction of a highly restrictive EULA sealed Microsoft's fate?
>> `----
>>
>> http://www.openaddict.com/page.php?20
>
> Erm....somehow, I doubt Linux has captured all that much
> of the desktop market yet.
>
> Emphasis on "yet". (The most optimistic figures I get
> are in the 20% range, if that -- and that's for Firefox,
> which can easily run on Windows as well as on Linux.
> A more likely figure is 5%-6%. Of course the server
> market seems to have a majority of Unix and Unix-like
> servers running Apache.)
>
This is the nub of the issue, though, isn't it? Just because they look
healthy doesn't mean that they're not about to collapse. Did you see
the news 2 days ago? The CEO of Deutsche Telekom resigned - why?
Because profits have collapse by an amazing 34%. They were already
running at a very very narrow margin, so presumably, they're now making
a significant loss. Their wireless revenues have increased, but not by
so much that it makes up for the wireline losses. Why mention them?
Well, they're one of the largest companies in the world, and one of the
richest - and yet, even with all their riches, they're unable to sustain
profit.
Take a second example, Vodafone. Yesterday they announced yet more
losses, this time $3bn for this quarter. Their margins are presently
running at something like -130% or thereabouts. Some of this is
write-down of poorly selected purchases, but even so, it's a poor
picture to paint for again, one of the world's largest companies.
What's causing the problems for the telcos? Well, the answer is that
it's the same thing which is causing problems for Microsoft. The
margins have been utterly eroded, either through regulation of markets
(initially for the telcos), and later, through arbitrage of service,
eg., skype on the internet versus IDD/PSTN calls. In the case of MS,
their margins are being eliminated through free software. MS's margin
is presently a stunning 44% (all margin figures I've given are net).
This cannot be sustained when so much software is being given away, and
MS do not have a viable alternative revenue stream to replace what
they're losing to open-source.
The question isn't whether MS have won or lost the desktop; it's a much
more fundamental one, the question is can Microsoft survive the effects
of open-source on their operating system, office, games console and
mobile businesses. How do you compete with something which is free?
Well, you have to change your business model - MS have not yet found a
profitable alternative, and seem so wedded to Windows that I cannot see
it happening. If they took the brave step of walking away from Windows,
I could see them surviving, but not if they continue with it.
--
| Mark Kent -- mark at ellandroad dot demon dot co dot uk |
Save gas, don't eat beans.
|
|
