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Re: [News] Open Source and Mainframes Hand-in-Glove

__/ [ Mark Kent ] on Friday 15 September 2006 08:59 \__

> begin  oe_protect.scr
> BearItAll <spam@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> espoused:
> 
> <snip on the reasons for FOSS's continued growth>
>> 
>> The great civilisations all died out very quickly. Very large businesses,
>> particular public companies, tend to do the same, a string of bad reports
>> or poor years and the investors pull the plug.
> 
> Agreed - it only takes moments to go from hero to villain in the public
> eye.  It's easier to see with "celebrities", but the process is
> essentially the same.


See the following (which I posted this morning).

Turning "Dead Money" Into Gold

,----[ Quote ]
| Dead money? Isn't a new computer upgrade cycle on the horizon with
| Microsoft's impending release of its next-generation operating system
| for PCs, Windows Vista? Not to mention Office 2007 and Windows Server
| (codenamed Longhorn)? Yes. Did I forget about Microsoft's very promising
| Web 2.0 and .NET platform initiatives? Or about its recent decision to
| buy back 155 million shares from investors via a Dutch self-tender offer
| for $24.75 each?
| 
| Investors punish Microsoft
| 
| No. Despite these things, I still feel that Microsoft is dead money over
| the next four or so months because of residual investor ill-will 
| surrounding the company's disastrous first-quarter earnings report back in 
| late April.
| 
| As you may recall, Microsoft dropped a bombshell on the investment
| community when it revealed its plans to spend an additional -- and
| unexpected -- $2 billion on vague advertising-related Internet initiatives
| in its fiscal 2007. The revelation meant the Street's margin and
| earnings estimates for next year were too high.
| 
| This was on top of the company's earlier revelation that its Windows
| Vista operating system launch would be delayed from November 2006 to
| January 2007, thus missing the crucial Christmas selling season. The badn
| ews was too much for investors.
| 
| The stock tanked 11.3% in a single day, the largest one-day percentage
| drop in at least five years. The stock has meandered since then and
| hasn't been helped by the recent prediction of the Gartner research firmt
| hat the Vista release will be delayed even past January into the second
| quarter of 2007.
| 
| Microsoft is still dead money
| 
| Simply put, this stock ain't going anywhere. The company's $14 billion to
| $15 billion in sustainable annual free cash flow, its 20% annual earnings
| growth, and its 20 P/E ratio arguably provides a solid price floor below
| the stock at right around its current price of $27, but the product delays
| and uncertainty over the cost-effectiveness of the company's massive
| new spending plans means it probably won't go up much, either.
| 
| Buying the stock now is, in my humble opinion, not an option (pun
| intended).
`----

http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/060914/115826023513.html?.v=3

Microsoft is said to be dead money. Only Microsoft is buying (its own)
stocks. Because it can; and because it gives a bogus positive impression.


>> Even if Linux didn't exist,
>> MS are still in trouble, because the areas of growth are too few and far
>> between. With Linux, and the takeup of Linux in the major growth areas of
>> the developing world, MS has no where to go, except into other products,
>> but it seems MS in other products is pretty much seen as a kiss of death
>> these days. Even their games machine looks set for failure when the next
>> Sony one comes out, apparently does what the MS games machine does, plus a
>> great deal more, but costs a lot less and they are delaying for no other
>> reason than to get the production side right, so they obviously plan to
>> get a much better build quallity reputation than MS's offering (50%
>> failures we were told not long agon in here)
> 
> Production quality is not something MS have ever really thought about,
> so I can't see them starting to do so now.  They're also very desperate
> for any kind of good news, so rushing products out for a quick profit is
> probably seen as highly desirable.


They are likely to have cash cows to make up for failures (even miserable
failures, or statistics). Most companies cannot afford to make so many
mistakes and still survive.


>> MS are closing lawsuits as quickly as they can, even when it is costly to
>> them as in the Sun case. They know that they need this stuff out of the
>> press. They are also pitching the prices high for Vista, because they know
>> they will not be rocking any boats, if they expected a massive sale they
>> could have pitched lower. We all know what is happening with their shares.
>> MS are in trouble.
>> 
>> They have a large ship, but they have no one onboard who knows how to sail
>> it.
>> 
>> Linux on the other hand still on it's long gentle plod up the statistics
>> charts, some dips, but the general trend is upwards. It is odd really we
>> don't have a crew so to speak, but we seem to know where we are going.
>> 
>> We are getting a lot of free publicity from all the 'Contains Linux'
>> products, plus the rave reviews of some of the desktop clients.
>> 
>> I don't think it's a matter of will MS start collapsing big time, much
>> more a case of when and what form that collapse will take.
>> 
>> If it was me in Ballmers chair I know what I would do, book a bloody long
>> holiday, wait for the collapse, then come back to collect my redundancy
>> money, which I would set excruciatingly high because I'm the boss
>> therefore I can.
>> 
> 
> He can cash in some shares and run.  He probably will, soon.
> 
> <snip>


Interesting. I posted a reply to your message a few minutes ago and my
speculation was the same.

Best wishes,

Roy

-- 
Roy S. Schestowitz      |    "How do I set my laser printer on stun?"
http://Schestowitz.com  |  Open Prospects   ¦     PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
Tasks: 126 total,   1 running, 123 sleeping,   0 stopped,   2 zombie
      http://iuron.com - knowledge engine, not a search engine

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