<Quote>
Opinion -- Sometimes, several unrelated changes come to a head at the
same time, with a result no one could have predicted. The PC market is
at such a tipping point right now and the result will be millions of
Linux-powered PCs in users' hands.
[Changes: 1. Maturation of desktop Linux. Even Michael Dell
agrees. 2. OLPC, even if they cost $200. That gave OEMs ideas,
Asus Eee, Everes gOS, Intel.]
And how are these sub $500 computers and laptops doing? Everex is
building them as fast as it can and has announced that its forthcoming
laptop version, the CloudBook, has already been picked up by a major
U.S. reseller. At the same time, according to an unconfirmed report,
ASUS is planning on selling 3.8 million Eees in its next fiscal year.
[Change 3: Broadband everywhere. 4. Google and other Apps.]
Four trends: user-friendly Linux desktops, useful under-$500 laptops
and desktops, near-universal broadband, and business-ready Internet
office applications. Put them together and you have a revolution.
For the last two decades, we've been buying expensive desktop
operating systems on business PCs running from $1,000 to $2,000. On
those systems, we've been putting pricey desktop-centric office suites
like Microsoft Office. That's a lot of money, and the convergence of
the above trends is about to knock it for a loop.
Here's the business case. You tell me if it's not compelling. You can
buy 100 $500 PCs running a free version of Linux, hook them to a high-
speed Internet connection for a $1,000 a year and use GAPE at $50 per
user account per year. Finally, we'll throw in a grand for a Linux
server. That's $57,000 for your equipment, your connectivity, your
operating system and your applications.
[Total for Vista: $114,923.]
So, by my calculations, all those trends have joined together to make
a Linux-based small business using Google applications instead of
Exchange and SharePoint cost less than half its Microsoft-based twin.
Worse still, if you're Microsoft, you can't really defend yourself.
Linux desktops run just dandy on low-end, under-$500 PCs. Vista Basic,
which comes the closest to being able to run on these systems, is
unacceptable since it doesn't support business networking. Office 2007
also won't run worth a darn on these systems. And somehow, I can't see
Microsoft optimizing its applications to work with Google Apps instead
of Exchange and SharePoint.
Put it all together, and here's what I see happening. In the next few
quarters, low-end Linux-based PCs are going to quickly take over the
bottom rung of computing. Then, as businesses continue to get
comfortable with SAAS (software as a service) and open-source
software, the price benefits will start leading them toward switching
to the new Linux/SAAS office model.
You'll see this really kick into gear once Vista Service Pack 1
appears and business customers start seriously looking at what it will
cost to migrate to Vista. That Tiffany-level price tag will make all
but the most Microsoft-centric businesses start considering the Linux/
SAAS alternative.
Microsoft will fight this trend tooth and nail. It will cut prices to
the point where it'll be bleeding ink on some of its product lines.
And Windows XP is going to stick around much longer than Microsoft
ever wanted it to. Still, it won't be enough. By attacking from the
bottom, where Microsoft can no longer successfully compete, Linux will
finally cut itself a large slice of the desktop market pie.
</Quote>
http://www.desktoplinux.com/news/NS2414535067.html
Well I wouldn't make these predictions, but then I don't know as much
as SJVN and I don't like to make predictions anyway. But let's say it
will be interesting to see if it develops as he says. He didn't
mention the impact of Linux adoption in other countries, he's talking
about the US, I guess.
The trolls love to say that if Linux is free why don't people use it,
to point out the small desktop share (who knows what it really is, but
a common figure is less than 1%), and to mock the "year of Linux"
predictions. I've noticed they never mention the fact that overall
Microsoft share on the desktop is actually down by a percent or two in
the last year or so, in spite of Vista. The reason isn't Linux, it's
Mac OS/X, attacking from the top. But Linux is a real threat to the
bottom, even if the numbers are still small.
A year ago it was hard to find any good news for Microsoft, apart from
expectations for Vista. But Vista has turned out to be botched far
worse than I ever would have expected. It's amazing what a mess
they've made of it. Meanwhile, I was interested to notice what SJVN
said about Linux forcing XP to stay around. Microsoft can't drop XP
next year like they've said they were going to if they are going to
put cheap XP on low end computers to block Linux, in the form of OLPC
or Eee or whatever. Unless maybe they invent a version of XP that
only runs on cheap computers, and force everyone else to "upgrade" to
Vista. I don't know if it's feasible.
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