On Sun, 30 Dec 2007 15:05:35 +0000, 7 wrote:
> Tim Smith wrote:
>
>> In article <pan.2007.12.29.20.05.01.274281@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
>> Kier <vallon@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>> On Sat, 29 Dec 2007 17:44:21 +0000, Roy Schestowitz wrote:
>>>
>>> > ____/ Kier on Saturday 29 December 2007 17:40 : \____
>>> >
>>> >> On Sat, 29 Dec 2007 17:28:55 +0000, 7 wrote:
>>> >>
>>> >>> Linux is show shipping 1 million new desktops per month and selling
>>> >>
>>> >> YOu still haven't shown any proof of this.
>>> >
>>> > It's a very reasonable estimate. Eee PCs alone sold about 200,000 per
>>> > month.
>>>
>>> I heard 175,000. Whichever it is, it's pretty good news, I agree. But 7
>>> has been saying this for ages without any evidence. When anyone asks, he
>>> just spews more babytalk.
>>
>> They projected selling 200k by the end of the year, which had 2.5 months
>> left in it when they went on sale. They actually sold about 350k, in
>> just over 2 months, which would be 175k a month, so your number looks
>> like the right one.
>>
>> However, that will include a boost from launch month, and a boost from
>> Christmas sales, so they probably won't sustain that rate.
>>
>> If 7 is right, new Linux desktops are springing up about as fast as PS3s
>> are selling. So, we can test this by surveying people. If he is right,
>> we should find we encounter about as many recent Linux desktop users as
>> we encounter recent PS3 buyers (although it might be necessary to wait a
>> couple months, to get out of the Christmas effect, since I'd expect that
>> to have boosted PS3 sales more than it would boost Linux desktop
>> installs).
>
>
> The only thing I claim is that press releases for 2007 total more than
> a million a month. SuSE for example has verified at least 2 million
> installs. OK that takes care of January and February of 2007. And if you
> keep adding like that, you end up with a figure of 1 to 2 million per
> month. I don't see anything wrong with that at all. I mean the Ausus EEE is
> now slated to sell 5m. That takes care of Jan, Feb, March, April, May of
They haven't yet done so. Though the figures are good, I'll give you that.
Very good, considering it might be considered a niche product.
> 2008. OLPC at 2 million - so we are into June and July. You then got Rhat,
> Ubuntu, SuSE and others to add on top and 2008 will be at leat 1 million
> per month. If countries like China, Brazil, Germany, China, Japan, India
> start talking big numbers as they normally did in 2007, then you easily
> end up with 2-3 million per month for 2008.
But as yet, it is only 2007. Predictions are all very well, but we have to
verify that they've been lived up to before we start crying victory for
Linux.
> These numbers are the cream of the big ones. Don't forget small businesses,
> schools, government offices, orgs, recycling outfits are pumping out
> millions a year in total. Add all those together, and you are in
> the comfort zone for several million per month for 2008.
Let's hope so. I would be very glad to see these figures confirmed.
>
> Same with embedded - at least 1 million embedded Linux devices per day.
> Again same method.
>
> The wintrolls and their socks find a lot of discomfort and panic
> in these sheer numbers.
>
> Who cares if the numbers are accurate or not - Linux and the open
> source movement is not waiting around for them to be verified!!
I care. And so does anyone who is waiting to rip you a new arsehole for
inaccuracy. Make them unassailable and you're on much firmer ground.
>
> What is annoying is that these provocative numbers have not
> resulted in any sort of verifiable tools that shills coming
> out with alternative numbers. They say its wrong because they can
> and not because they can't prove it wrong.
That works both ways.
>
> To prove it wrong, they will have to total it themselves
> and come the same conclusion that I have; and become
> totally demoralized by it.
>
> At least for 2008, there is a tool to measure Linux uptake
> in the form of press releases.
Let's hope so.
>
> I won't have time to keep meticulous results, but if someone cares
> to keep such figures and copies of the press releases or their URLs,
> it would smack down a lot of wintrolls and their socks in 2009.
>
> All anyone would have to show is that Linux desktop is 7% of the
> total number of desktops and Linux gets declared as a Mainstream
> desktop product - thats enough for lot of investors to pump huge
> amounts of money into Linux only projects.
Don't you think that if anyone on the Linux side could do so, they would
have? Therefore, they can't. Not yet, anyway. But what it does show is
that things are moving in that direction ever more quickly, which is
certainly good news.
And look! You've managed to write a post which doesn't include stupid
babytalk. So why don't you keep that up?
--
Kier
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