Tim Smith wrote:
> In article <pan.2007.12.29.20.05.01.274281@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> Kier <vallon@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>> On Sat, 29 Dec 2007 17:44:21 +0000, Roy Schestowitz wrote:
>>
>> > ____/ Kier on Saturday 29 December 2007 17:40 : \____
>> >
>> >> On Sat, 29 Dec 2007 17:28:55 +0000, 7 wrote:
>> >>
>> >>> Linux is show shipping 1 million new desktops per month and selling
>> >>
>> >> YOu still haven't shown any proof of this.
>> >
>> > It's a very reasonable estimate. Eee PCs alone sold about 200,000 per
>> > month.
>>
>> I heard 175,000. Whichever it is, it's pretty good news, I agree. But 7
>> has been saying this for ages without any evidence. When anyone asks, he
>> just spews more babytalk.
>
> They projected selling 200k by the end of the year, which had 2.5 months
> left in it when they went on sale. They actually sold about 350k, in
> just over 2 months, which would be 175k a month, so your number looks
> like the right one.
>
> However, that will include a boost from launch month, and a boost from
> Christmas sales, so they probably won't sustain that rate.
>
> If 7 is right, new Linux desktops are springing up about as fast as PS3s
> are selling. So, we can test this by surveying people. If he is right,
> we should find we encounter about as many recent Linux desktop users as
> we encounter recent PS3 buyers (although it might be necessary to wait a
> couple months, to get out of the Christmas effect, since I'd expect that
> to have boosted PS3 sales more than it would boost Linux desktop
> installs).
The only thing I claim is that press releases for 2007 total more than
a million a month. SuSE for example has verified at least 2 million
installs. OK that takes care of January and February of 2007. And if you
keep adding like that, you end up with a figure of 1 to 2 million per
month. I don't see anything wrong with that at all. I mean the Ausus EEE is
now slated to sell 5m. That takes care of Jan, Feb, March, April, May of
2008. OLPC at 2 million - so we are into June and July. You then got Rhat,
Ubuntu, SuSE and others to add on top and 2008 will be at leat 1 million
per month. If countries like China, Brazil, Germany, China, Japan, India
start talking big numbers as they normally did in 2007, then you easily
end up with 2-3 million per month for 2008.
These numbers are the cream of the big ones. Don't forget small businesses,
schools, government offices, orgs, recycling outfits are pumping out
millions a year in total. Add all those together, and you are in
the comfort zone for several million per month for 2008.
Same with embedded - at least 1 million embedded Linux devices per day.
Again same method.
The wintrolls and their socks find a lot of discomfort and panic
in these sheer numbers.
Who cares if the numbers are accurate or not - Linux and the open
source movement is not waiting around for them to be verified!!
What is annoying is that these provocative numbers have not
resulted in any sort of verifiable tools that shills coming
out with alternative numbers. They say its wrong because they can
and not because they can't prove it wrong.
To prove it wrong, they will have to total it themselves
and come the same conclusion that I have; and become
totally demoralized by it.
At least for 2008, there is a tool to measure Linux uptake
in the form of press releases.
I won't have time to keep meticulous results, but if someone cares
to keep such figures and copies of the press releases or their URLs,
it would smack down a lot of wintrolls and their socks in 2009.
All anyone would have to show is that Linux desktop is 7% of the
total number of desktops and Linux gets declared as a Mainstream
desktop product - thats enough for lot of investors to pump huge
amounts of money into Linux only projects.
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