On Dec 27, 1:59 pm, "PEDRO LITTLE" <P...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> "7" <website_has_em...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
> news:nwScj.68811$c_1.63377@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Micoshaft Asstroturfer PEDRO LITTLE wrote on behalf of Micoshaft
> > Corporation:
> >> "Roy Schestowitz" <newsgro...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
> >>news:1871823.UZibzUzXNc@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >>> Tech Predictions for 2008
>
> >>> ,----[ Quote ]
> >>> | A Linux Year
>
> >> So for the 10th year in a row someone is (wrongly) predicting that "This
> >> will be the year of linux."
Actually, 1997 was the "First Wave" of Linux. There have been several
"waves" of Linux as it enters new markets. In 1997, Linux went from
being virtually unknown in most IT departments (often was deployed
without the CIO's knowledge due to lack of funding and staffing
requirements). In 1997, about 17% of companies DISCOVERED that they
were in fact using Linux, and many were obtaining formal support from
companies like Red Hat and SUSE. In 1998, IBM formally endorsed
Linux, pledged $1 billion in support for Linux, and by 1999, had
recovered $3 for each $1 invested. In 2000, DOJ hearings included
public statements, under oath, by Microsoft executives, that Microsoft
had 14% of the PC market. The Halloween documents showed that
Microsoft considered Linux to be "Enemy number one".
By 2001, XP was released, but the attempted "force feed" of XP
triggered a backlash from corporations, many of whom opted to stay
with Windows 2000, and/or developed plans to migrate to Linux if
Microsoft attempted to force additional revenue from these companies
without providing additional value and service.
Linux is more than just a kernel, it's also the culture of Open Source
Software. The momentum of Linux triggered adoption of Open Source
Software such as FireFox, and OpenOffice. The result was that from
2002 to 2006, there were massive increases in the adoption of Open
Source Software that could be run on BOTH Windows and Linux.
The availability of Live-CDs and Live-DVDs, starting in 2003 triggered
a significant increase in interest in Linux, many using Linux to help
recover data stored on corrupted Windows XP drived. Linux users could
go to retail stores and knew within 5 minutes whether a PC they wanted
to buy would run Linux properly or not.
In 2003, Windows XP service pack 2 was also released, and corrupted or
disabled a substantial number of very popular 3rd party applications,
especially competitors to Microsoft applications, such as Lotus Notes,
Smart Suite, and Netscape Communicator. Interest in Linux increased,
especially as Microsoft attempted to force Corporate IT departments to
upgrade from Windows NT 4.0 to a substantially more expensive Windows
2003 Enterprise Edition server.
Microsoft apparently sponsored SCO's attempt to sue IBM and Linux
customers over aallegedly giving SCO's intellectual property to
Linux. It took almost 4 years for it to become obvious that SCO's CEO
not only knew that most of the technology in question was legally
obtained by the Linux community, but also that SCO didn't even own the
contested intellectual property. It also became clear that Microsoft
brokered the financing for the lawsuit, arranging funding through Bay
Star capital by offering assurances to "make it worthwhile".
By 2004, there were hundreds of Millions of Linux appliances being
deployed all over the world. They didn't have displays, but they were
configured through web interfaces, used Linux or Unix kernels, and
were showing up in the form of digital video recorders, digital video
cable boxes, cable-modems, DSL modems, USB storage devices, SAN
storage devices, and even flat panel digital televisions.
By 2004, most PCs were being produced as "Linux Ready". IBM, HP, and
Dell, produced most of their "top line" models using devices which
could easily be converted to Linux, often in less than 30 minutes.
In 2005, HP Introduced the first AMD-64 laptops and desktops. These
machines had full 64 bit capability, but the only access to that 64
bit capability was to install SUSE Linux. Ironically, Linux users
opted to purchase the machines with Windows XP professional, which
allowed them to use Linux and Windows on the same machine, allowed
them to call XP libraries from WINE, and allowed them to run XP as a
VMWare client.
In 2006, VMWare introduced VMWare player, which allowed Linux users to
share the latest versions of Linux as VMWare images, Linux could now
be started on Windows machines like any other application.
"Appliance" images provided such features as secure browsing and e-
mail, all the way to full-blown distributions with large suites of
applications.
In 2007, VMWare introduced the VMWare Converter, which allowed those
who purchased machines with Windows XP pre-installed to generate a
licensed VMWare image that could be stored on an external USB drive.
Linux could then be installed on the PC as the primary operating
system, and Windows XP could be installed as a VMWare Player
application. Ironically, this configuration created a system that
provided a better XP than XP. It was faster, more stable, more
secure, and easier to back-up and recover, than a "Native Mode" XP
installation. Even when XP is running in 32 bit mode, it lets 64 bit
Linux use 64 bit speed and capacity, and lets Linux optimize the disk
access, making Windows run faster. Since the "emulation" overhead of
VMWare Player was only about 5%, the net gain was substantial.
In 2007, Microsoft released Vista, and Apple agressively marketed OS/
X. Every statement made by Apple's commercials applied equally to
Linux and UNIX (including Solaris and BSD), but it was only the Mac
that was sitting in retail stores at major shopping malls, with people
waiting in line for their chance to test drive, and purchase, a Mac.
Even at prices nearly triple those of comparably equipped Vista
machines, Apple couldn't keep up with demand.
Meanwhile, Gateway, on the verge of becoming a penny stock or being
delisted do to deep losses due to sagging demand for Vista, became an
easy takeover target for Acer, a company who made all of their laptop
and desktop machines "Linux Ready" (making it very popular with Linux
users even at higher prices). IBM grew tired of subsidizing the
losses of their PC division and sold the division to Lenovo. The only
PCs IBM makes now are offered with Linux as one option, and the PPC
version is offered with AIX as well as Linux.
> >> This is almost becoming funny now. Someone ought to take the early
> >> initiative and predict that 2041 will be the "Year of Linux."
There are probably more Linux and Unix licensed devices in the
marketplace than Microsoft licensed PCs. Linux is now being offered
on Cell phones in Europe, Asia, and South America. Palm will be
introducing cell phones based on Linux in the United States this year.
The real question is "Is 2008 the year that Linux desktops and laptops
reach the retail shelves?". One can be certain that Microsoft will do
everything in it's power to prevent this, but given the poor
performance of Vista, the lack of any credible alternative that is
competitive with OS/X and Linux, and the increased restrictions and
increased costs of Vista, the OEMs may not be willing to negotiate any
terms which prevent them from shipping devices with Linux as an option
to the retail marketplace.
The retailers are even more hostile to Vista. In many retail stores,
the retailers haven't even bothered to replenish inventory or install
new displays. Many retailers are simply selling off their inventory,
even the display models, and leaving the holes on the shelves, almost
as if to say "We don't want any more of these". The retailers have
become show-rooms for OEMs who are getting most of their sales via
Web, where they can order Linux-ready PCs with Windows XP professional
instead of Vista Home edition.
> > The 'Year of Linux' was about 3 years ago in many markets.
The big "turn" in momentum was 1997, 10 years ago. Microsoft has done
everything in it's power to prevent Linux powered desktop and laptop
devices from showing up on retailer shelves, but Linux has been
permeating the market.
> > Linux now sells 1 million embedded devices per day.
More accurately, over 1 million Linux Licensed devices per day are
sold.
In addition, there are millions of UNIX based devices being sold and
deployed.
> No. It's not "Linux" that sells embedded devices.
> Perhaps these devices run linux but it is not linux that
> sells these devices.
You're probably correct, but it's Linux that makes it possible to
provide huge power and capabilities in a very short time-frame, and at
very low cost. There may not be a penguin on the box, but the penguin
is IN the box, and makes the box possible.
> I'm quite sure that very, very, very few people buy a microwave
> oven or a GPS or a digital camera because of linux.
And they won't by a Linux PC because of Linux, they will buy it
because the get a huge assortment of applications and capabilities for
the price of a PC that had Windows alone.
> They buy it for a completely different reason and
> couldn't care less what OS their "appliance" uses internally.
True. What they do know is that there aren't tons of nondisclosure
agreements, license agreements, and threats of dire consequences for
violation of some Microsoft license. They don't see Tux the penguin
and say "I want that one", they see a very reliable, very secure, very
stable device that is selling at a very reasonable price, often less
than 1/10th the price of a PC.
Linux devices have developed a solid reputation of "They Just Work".
The same is true of the sister UNIX devices such as CISCO routers,
Cable boxes, and Cable Modems.
> > The one you are referring to is desktop only because that
> > is important to you and your employer Micoshaft Corporation.
>
> Don't work there now, have never worked there before.
> So you are definitely full of shit.
How many shares of Microsoft stock do you own?
How much have you been paid by Microsoft (as a consultant?).
What other forms of compensation have you received?
> > Linux is fast catching up - new Linux desktops are growing
> > at somewhere between 1 million and 2 million desktops per month.
>
> And you have proof of this?
> Of course not because you are a liar like Rex Ballard.
I have said before, I don't think anybody really knows how many Linux
PCs are being deployed. We know how many PCs are sold with Windows,
but even the XP vs Vista statistics are now suspect, since Microsoft
counts the devices shipped with XP as "Vista Business" licenses.
Linux is installed by end users. Linux is legally replicated. Linux
is available in books, magazines, and can be downloaded from mirrors,
including mirrors hosted by nonprofit organizations. VMWare
Appliances based on Linux can be downloaded over high speed networks
in a matter of minutes. WiFi is now free in many countries, often by
simply going to a restaurant such as Panera, International House of
Pancakes, or McDonalds. Most laptops include DVD-Writers and CD-
Writers. All of this means that it's impossible to count how many
Linux licenses have been deployed. To be sure, most of the
deployments are still on PCs that run Linux AND Windows, rather than
Linux exclusively.
On the other hand, we have indicators. How many books on Linux and
Linux related languages and tools are sold? How many USB devices were
sold? How many PCs were sold with OpenGL based graphics cards as
opposed to DirectX-10 graphics cards? How many aftermarket OpenGL
cards were sold?
We have browser statistics, but this merely measures who has the most
IP addresses. Remember, there are 1 billion PCs, but there are about
2 billion IP addresses, and Microsoft controls almost 1/2 of them
(DHCP). Most of the Linux friendly access points are fixed IP
addresses shared by NAT routers. Even when Linux is connected to a
public DHCP assigned IP address, Linux users often go weeks between
reboots, while many Windows workstations reconnect on time-outs in as
little as 30 minutes.
Some companies, like Google, Verisign, and Microsoft, have services
which uniquely identify hundreds of millions of users all over the
world, and can count ALL of the different operating systems they use,
and this number is something that everybody keeps VERY close to the
chest.
Microsoft doesn't want to risk losing market share by blurting out the
real market share that Linux has, how many people are using Linux or
Windows AND Linux.
Companies like Google and Yahoo, that compete with Microsoft are still
hoping that the courts will somehow find a way to put a leash on
Microsoft and keep them from attempting to extend the Microsoft
monopoly into THEIR Markets, and are therefore very unwilling to
publish any numbers at all.
Some less formal and smaller samplings indicate that Linux has grown
to about 10% of the market, and has continued to outgrow the Windows/
Linux market. There are seasonal variations, with Linux losing share
in the beginning of the "Back to School" season, and gaining share in
the winter months as new Christmas PCs are received, and older PCs are
converted to Linux.
But 10% is still that "tip of the iceberg", IP addresses rather than
uniquely identified users. Again, there is that pesky little habit of
Linux not rebooting for weeks, while Windows gets rebooted every day
or two.
> > Not long now before it turns into a torrent on the
> > desktop like in other markets.
The fundamental shift which will put Linux on the radar screen, will
be when retailers have Linux powered desktop and laptop devices fully
operational on retail shelves so that consumers can make a side-by-
side comparison, or boot into either operating system.
Microsoft has openly defied court orders to this effect. They have
defied most of the other DOJ orders. They have done everything within
their power, legal or not, to keep Linux off the retail shelves.
Will Dell, HP, or ACER simply DEMAND the right to install Linux and
Windows on the same PC? Will they simply follow IBM's lead and start
their own line of Linux specific devices? Will they follow the OLPC
model and come up with smaller laptops that connect to HDTV displays,
use USB connections for storage, and use Flash storage for "portable"
operation?
It's quite likely that the Linux "TuxTop" will not look like the
"traditional" PC. Linux has the advantage of being able to be fully
functional with as little as 256 MB of RAM, and 2 gigabytes of SD-
Flash. Linux has the advantage of being able to network efficiently,
and has excellent support for USB-2, FireWire, Serial ATA, and Serial
SCSI, as well as BlueTooth and WiFi.
> Not long before pigs grow wings and start flying.
Just remember, when anything larger than a pigeon starts flying, you
probably don't want to spend too much time underneath them.
No close you eyes, go back to sleep, and keep telling yourself, "it's
only a nightmere".
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