On Feb 16, 12:04 pm, Roy Schestowitz <newsgro...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
> __/ [ John Bailo ] on Friday 16 February 2007 16:35 \__
> http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:r...
> > BOSTON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp. (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile ,
> > Research) shares fell as much as 2.7 percent on Friday, their biggest
> > drop in nine months, after Chief Executive Steve Ballmer said analysts'
> > forecasts for fiscal 2008 revenue for Windows Vista were "overly
> > aggressive."
>
> Who didn't see /that/ coming? And where is our little friend Prof. Bill
> Weisberger (amicus_curious, who is a proud Microsoft shill)? Has he decided
> that trolling a Linux newsgroups might be damaging once his identity gets
> exposed? What would his students think if they found out? LOL!!!
This announcement looked bad, but it was hard to determine how bad.
It said that Windows Vista sales were lower than previous versions of
Windows. That could have just meant that it was worse than Windows
XP, which was "force fed" to OEMS, retailers, and corporations. On
the other hand, it could have meant that Vista acceptance was lower
than ANY previous versions of Windows, inluding Windows NT 3.1 and
Windows ME, which were both marketing disasters.
Keep in mind that Windows NT 4.0 sales were so bad during the first
few months that Microsoft promised many corporate customers free
upgrades to Windows NT 5.0 (AKA Windows 2000) when it was released -
promising a new version within 2 year (actually took almost 4 years).
> Links:
> Sales of boxed Vista copies down over XP
>
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | Sales of boxed copies of Windows Vista at retail stores significantly
> | trailed those of Windows XP in each product's first week on
> | shelves, according to new figures from NPD.
> `----
> http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9593_22-6159700.html
Following the link gives some really bad news. It turns out that
sales of boxed Vista were even 59% worse than boxed versions of
Windows XP. A little over 1/3rd the number of boxes. But keep in
mind that the 5-tier upgrades of Windows Vista combined with the
preinstallation of only "Home" versions sold in retail outlets - means
that sales of Vista **should** have been HIGHER than the sales for XP.
On the other hand, XP was capable of running on machines that had
Windows 2000, and many people did find that Windows automatic update
was a good "killer feature". Furthermore, the "3 strikes your out"
activation sequence may have triggered excessive sales because when an
installer was "locked out" because he had installed on more than 3
computers, and all of them were deactivated, even the legal copy had
to be replaced. Others were locked out because the botched the
original upgrade, or because they realized their hard drives were too
small, then realized they needed more memory - each of these hardware
upgrades were treated as "new machines" and legitimate installers were
often locked out.
Remember too, that this upgrade policy actually drove millions of
users into the arms of Linux. Many users got so fed up with
Microsoft, they starte installing Linux instead of XP.
Nearly 30 percent of the boxes were upgrades to Ultimate - in effect,
upgrades to machines purchased with Home editions preinstalled. In
effect, this is a shell game from Microsoft. In effect, this puts
Windows below Windows 3.1 in overall acceptance, based on percentage
of potential market converted.
When Windows NT 3.1 was released, it was estimated that there were
less than 250 million PCs. Today there are nearly 900 million PCs in
use worldwide.
> Ballmer delivers sobering message at Microsoft event
>
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | Microsoft Corp. Chief Executive Steve Ballmer tempered the
> | expectations of analysts at an event Thursday, telling them
> | their predictions for sales of the company's new operating
> | system are too high, while those for its operating expenses
> | may be too low.
> `----
> http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ballmer-delivers-sobering-messa...
> http://tinyurl.com/2juebs
This is really a problem for Microsoft. It looks like Microsoft's
volumes and revenues are so far below expectations that they plan to
cut back on their expenses. Could this mean that they will be cutting
back on advertizing?
Would they really cut back on R&D?
Would they cut their legal team?
It's the first sign that Microsoft is "taking their foot off the gas".
> Microsoft Down Eight Straight Days: Reversal Time?
>
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | Going into today's trading, Microsoft is down eight days in a row.
> `----
>
> http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070213/26914_id.html?.v=1
They are being so polite. On January 12, the stock was at 31.21, on
January 31 it was peaking at $30.86, on February 16, the stock is down
to 28.78. A drop of $2.08 per share or nearly 7% in 16 days. Could
this be the month when Microsoft gets the same trauma that IBM got
back in 1991?
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