[H]omer <spam@xxxxxxx> espoused:
> Verily I say unto thee, that Roy Schestowitz spake thusly:
>> __/ [ B Gruff ] on Monday 19 March 2007 11:39 \__
>>
>>> On Monday 19 March 2007 11:21 Roy Schestowitz wrote:
>>>
>>>> Dell, Linux... and Mark Shuttleworth
>>>>
>>>> ,----[ Quote ]
>>>> | It turned out that the "community" wanted PCs installed with GNU/Linux.
>>>> | As of today, 113,556 individuals have said Dell should offer the top
>>>> | three distributions out of the showroom; another 78,300 want
>>>> | OpenOffice.org installed as an alternative to Microsoft Works or
>>>> | Microsoft Office. They've all registered and logged in to make these
>>>> | demands - so they have expended some time on it.
>>>> |
>>>> | [...]
>>>> |
>>>> | The crowd who want GNU/Linux out of the showroom are the ones who are
>>>> | getting their feet wet for the first time. The ones who don't know how
>>>> | to use the MadWifi drivers or ndiswrapper to set up a wireless card.
>>>> | The ones who can't figure out how to get the nVidia drivers to work
>>>> | properly. They are far from fussy - if every device on that new box
>>>> | works with the GNU/Linux supplied by a vendor, they will just go
>>>> | home and start using it happily. Is it then so difficult for a
>>>> | vendor like Dell to offer GNU/Linux (any distribution) on a line of PCs?
>>>> `----
>>>>
>>>> http://www.itwire.com.au/content/view/10569/1090/
>>>>
>>>> Many onservers assume that those who request Linux systems are those
>>>> already capable of installing Linux on anything.
>
>>> In fact Roy, many assume that it is people like us, cheering from the
>>> sidelines and "voting" 100 times each, and that not a single one of us will
>>> ever buy a single machine with Linux installed or "installable":-)
>
> The DellIdeaStorm phenomenon opened even *my* eyes to the huge increase
> in popularity of Linux amongst non-geek enthusiasts. Read through some
> of the thousands of comments on that blog; most of those people are
> utter noobs. The sheer scale of this really took me by surprise, even
> considering the ineptness of the competition. Finally, it would seem,
> the camel's back is broke.
>
>> Yes, exactly my point. :-) I was hoping to show here that folks like my
>> parents, who are technophobes by the way, are very much willing to say
>> farewell to the trouble-generating PCs they have at the moment. I know some
>> people who dread visiting family and friends because they know it will
>> involve 'maintaining' their PC. Free servicing... only if your time (or a
>> loved one's time) is worthless.
>
> Like I've said before, I've made it crystal clear to all my family and
> friends that I will offer one, and only one, "repair" service for their
> b0rken Windows systems ... and that is to wipe it and install Linux.
>
> I note with interest that of those who initially declined the offer,
> many have since switched to Linux independently anyway, and done so
> quietly. I suppose people just really hate admitting defeat. Eventually,
> of course, they will start talking to me about it, diplomatically
> pretending that they've been singing from the same hymn sheet all along.
It's an interesting point isn't it, the idea that using Linux could be a
defeat. One has to wonder how a situation was created where the
decision space became so loaded with unhelpful emotional responses. One
might consider that marketing people have created an environment where
victory or defeat is whether you're paying a shedload of cash to
Microsoft (this is, apparently, a victory) or one where you get your
operating system free of licensing charges (this, apparently, is a
defeat). Amazing.
>
>> How many people do you know who use nothing but Windows and at the same time
>> love Linux?
>
> Very, *very* few, these days. Most are already either Linux or OSX
> converts, and the last few Windows hold-outs are desperately fed up,
> especially given the release of Microsoft's latest lemon.
I see few people willing to defend the Microsoft position these days.
There are just far too many people around who've had to deal with
virusguards, spyware, constant re-installs, machines which grind to
a halt, all for no additional gain. If you think fairly carefully,
there's been little user functionality improvement really since Win95,
and little improvement in OS capability from Microsoft since Win2000.
Those are 12 years and 7 years ago, respectively. XP is just 2k, but
less reliable and with nursery colours, and vista is XP, but doesn't run
any software, doesn't support any hardware, won't let you play films or
music, but *still* supports most malware...
>
> The official numbers just don't add up in real life, which is why I've
> been pushing so hard for pre-installed Linux, in preference to blank
> systems, on DellIdeaStorm. Microsoft have huge metrics based purely on
> OEM sales, not customer demand. If the metrics were adjusted to allow
> for those who (having indirectly purchased a Windows license) have
> subsequently wiped Windows and installed Linux, the numbers would tell
> an entirely different story.
Ahh, don't underestimate Microsoft. They will still claim a Windows
install for every PC sold, because they'll claim that the number of
linux pre-installs is so small that the numbers can be ignored. You
wait - Mr Weisgerber is lining up his malodorous maltruths as we speak.
I do wonder how these people sleep at night.
>
>> They are just waiting until it's there at the showroom, ready to
>> be used with some commercial backing (and dedicated hotline).
>
> Yes there are a fair number of those type of people too, but many have
> run out of patience with both Microsoft and OEM vendors, and have
> switched independently.
>
> Like I've said before (in another context), if Dell (and others) want to
> ride the wave, they'd better get on board soon, before the initial burst
> is over.
There is a major economic dilemma for them, though, as I pointed out in
another posting. It amounts to balancing their loss from Microsoft
lifting their licensing charge versus gain from additional sales of
hardware by pre-installing Linux. If Dell could do it without annoying
Microsoft, they'd've done it ages ago.
>
> Retail analysis for *any* /new/ product shows that the largest
> proportion of sales, occurs within the first few weeks of its "release".
> The Linux bandwagon is rolling, and if Dell wants to capitalise on that,
> they need to start selling Linux boxes soon, before everyone has
> switched the OS on their *old hardware* independently anyway, and the
> market for new sales dries up.
>
> Once installed, Linux can survive on hardware until that hardware
> becomes prehistoric, unlike Windows which forces upgrades on a seemingly
> endless basis. If OEMs don't strike while the iron's hot, the "market"
> will be virtually saturated, and they will have missed their chance to
> sell new hardware based on that "latest buzz".
>
> Microsoft understand this too, which is why they've resorted to
> extortionate methods to extract every last drop of capital from their
> victims, ahem, I mean customers. Even their Latest OS is just another
> blatantly obvious drive to capitalise on buzz without substance.
>
> That's not to say that *all* products lack substance, but irrespective
> of whether they do or not, getting a foothold in any emerging market is
> utterly dependent on generating (and capitalising on) that buzz.
>
> I believe it is essential for OEMs to act now, not just for the sake of
> those OEMs (in terms of capitalising on new trends), but mostly for the
> sake of the Linux community, in order to "correct" the skewed metrics
> that IMHO are grossly inaccurate (and therefore give entirely the wrong
> impression about Linux).
You are pushing against a couple of major problems from the OEM
perspective here, though. Firstly, they *like* OSes which decay and
need replacement with modern hardware within 18 months - that way, they
get to sell more hardware. Presumably the manufacturers of diggers and
mechanical shovels also like it because they get to sell more diggers to
dig the holes for the landfills.
The second problem is that Microsoft have the OEMs over a barrel. If
they offer Linux, Microsoft will unsweeten whatever deal they have for
Windows licensing; let's not be naive here, people are going to want
Windows for some time to come, whatever the superiority of Linux might
be by comparison.
The counter-pressures are that Linux is surely set to overtake Windows
in sales fairly soon, and if the existing major OEMs do not give the
customers what they want, alternative suppliers, probably from India &
China, will happily step in to offer alternatives with Linux pre-loads.
How many DVD players are made by Philips, Panasonic, Sony, GEC, etc.
these days? Very few, I think.
--
| Mark Kent -- mark at ellandroad dot demon dot co dot uk |
| Cola faq: http://www.faqs.org/faqs/linux/advocacy/faq-and-primer/ |
| Cola trolls: http://colatrolls.blogspot.com/ |
|
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