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Re: GNU/Linux 'Market Share' Guesswork at Best

  • Subject: Re: GNU/Linux 'Market Share' Guesswork at Best
  • From: Rex Ballard <rex.ballard@xxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Fri, 15 Aug 2008 15:13:42 -0700 (PDT)
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On Aug 15, 5:04 pm, Roy Schestowitz <newsgro...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
> Linux’s Market Share: Is There Any Way To Know?

Yes

> ,----[ Quote ]
> | Canonical is claiming that 11% of businesses use Ubuntu. (If that is the
> | case, just imagine how many use Red Hat or Suse.) Gartner says that Linux’s
> | market share is 4%, putting it about even with the Mac. And Context says that
> | almost 3% of PCs sold in the UK have Linux pre-installed.

11% of which businesses?  The Fortune 500?  The Russel 2000?  The S&P
500?

The problem with this statement is that it is incomplete, and
therefore not terribly informative.  That could be 11% of all
registered .com domains, including the little 1 person registrants,
and most of the 11% is the one horse shops, that's not saying much.

If on the other hand, that's 11% of the S&P 500 or the Fortune 500,
that's a pretty impressive number.  Even if it's only a few desktops
per company, that could indicate that there is a serious inquiry into
the suitability of Linux as a replacement for Windows in various
specific environments.

Many companies ARE using Linux for special purpose workstations such
as call centers, point of service workstations (Tellers, Cashiers,
Phone sales, Insurance agents).  Most companies also attract and
retain top UNIX talent by letting them run Linux on their workstations
and laptops.

The hardest conversion is the middle-manegers who depend on Microsoft
project, Visio, and Powerpoint to prepare plans for upper management
using spreadsheets and task descriptions and estimates from
subordinates.

Executive level managers don't care so much about the nitty gritty
details, and are more interested in timely reports of the "Big
Picture", while specialists can generate the required spreadsheets and
documents using OSS software.

We are beginning to see a shift, however, to Java based tools, such as
Eclipse plug-ins to replace these tools with tools that can more
easily integrate with both input systems and corporate reporting
systems.  This allows details to be captured and managed and also
allows them to be summarized and reported at the executive level.
This allows specialists to get their assignments in a "To Do List",
and report their progress by checking their assignments as complete.
They can do this using web interfaces, eclipse plug-ins or other low-
cost (even free) "Clients" as part of an enterprise project management
system.

These movements will allow project managers to focus more on
communication and problem resolution, and spend much less time on
"Bean counting" which is usually their least favorite part of the job.

The shift is also including commercial vendors who can capture project
requirements, create work-breaakdowns from templates, and can help
identify all resources capable of doing any given task, making it
easier to balance work-load across all available staff ad making the
project much less dependent on one or two people on the critical path.

> | [...]

> | Short of every Linux distro calling home, which I hope will never happen,

Actually, most distros do have some sort of "phone home" function as
part of their automated update systems, or their software distribution
systems.  You can get the CD or download image for free, but when you
install and configure, it can get some information like your Linux
user ID, your IP address, your MAC address, and other unique
identifiers that might be available such as you root device drive
serial number. This way they can be sure that they are not
overcounting, or undercounting.

> | there may never be a way to know how many Linux users there are. Perhaps the
> | downloads of some cross-platform application would give a rough idea, but
> | that application would have to be something that a Linux user, a Mac user,
> | and a Windows user would want equally. If anyone has a better idea, I would
> | love to hear it.

The biggest problem is that many Point of Service terminals don't have
general access to the public internet, so they may never get counted.
On the other hand, it is possible to count most of the other clients
using user registration and identification tools. For example, having
a user log in and then placing a persistent cookie.  This way you know
who the user is, but if they are using the same machine, they won't be
double-counted.  On the other hand, if tehy are using multiple
environments, such as Windows and Linux, each environment can be
tallied separately.

Several companies, includig Google, Yahoo, E-Bay, MSNBC, and other
"must see" sights offer this type of registration and counting of
hundreds of millions of Linux, Windows, and Mac users.

For about $1500 per viewer, you can get a copy of this report, and get
a very interesting wake-up call.

You can see the results of these surveys in the shift from Microsoft
only sites rich in ActiveX controls, Front Page extensions, and
Microsoft centric Javascript, to ECMA javascript, pure HTML, and
binary free XML.  You also saw Adobe release flash for Linux, because
advertisers had stopped using the Linux "hostile" format.

Even YouTube uses Linux-Friendly formats, and so do all of the
advertisers.

More recent shifts, such as the OEMs switching more and more to "Linux
Ready" technology, and their eagerness to announce that Linux "Is
Supported" or "Is available" is a good way to telegraph to one of the
fastest growing segments of the PC industry that they are ready to
play in that market.

Many corporations also do "security audits", and this includes a
report of the software installed on the machine.  As corporations see
more and more users installig Cygwin, VMWare, and even Linux on those
desktops, and fewer trouble tickets from those users, they are
beginning to see that Linux is a viable desktop.

Remember that in one year, CIOs responding to IDC surveys went from
saying "No Linux here" to 17% saying "Yes, we have Linux and we like
it" to a year later, 38% saying they were using Linux and planned to
use more.  That was for the server market.

There are very few "Pure Linux" companies, but the one notable
exception is health care, where some key players have gone to 100%
Linux everywhere, including desktop and appliance devices.  It seems
that with people's lives on the line, Linux is far more trusted to
keep track of medical records and treatment program tracking, than
Windows.  These companies have been extremely successful, in part
because they waste very little effort trying to chase desktop
problems, because there is ZERO Windows desktops.

> http://www.linuxloop.com/news/2008/08/14/linuxs-market-share-is-there...

> Recent:

> Netbooks A Linux Stronghold?
>
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | For years, backers of open-source software have hoped to push Microsoft out
> | of its dominant position in desktops and laptops. Windows-powered personal
> | computers account for more than 90% of unit sales,. Linux 4%, Gartner says.
> `----

However, according to ASUS, the Linux netbook is more popular tha
Windows version 60% to 40%.  Microsoft has tried all sorts of tactics
to try and prevent Linux from being shown on the display shelves, but
it's backfired, and retailers are turning off the Vista laptop and
desktop systems.

If I can make 30% profit on a Linux powered NetBook, and I can only
make 5% profit on a traditional Windows notebook, and that's only if I
sell it before it has to be discounted and sold at clearance prices,
then the Linux books are going to be much more interestig to
retailers.

Vista has been a nightmare for retailers, and Microsoft's attempts to
force them to abandon Linux and Mac are about like the drunk who
throws up on your couch demanding to sleep in your bed, with your
wife.

Retailers love the margins that come with Apple's Mac, many are
frustrated with the OEMs who haven't responded to Mac's Unix based
work-tops with Linux work-tops.  Since the release of OS/X, Apple's
stock has soared from $30 per share to $180 per share, thanks in large
part to the high margins on iMacs, iPods, and iPhones.

Microsoft on the other hand, has tried to force the OEMs into a
"Commodity" market, with very little flexibility to do anything
creative to distinguish the brand.  Linux on the other hand, gives
OEMs the ability to have a uniform framewark, while having full
creative and artistic control over the user interface.  They can use
KDE, Beryl, or Enlightenment to provide beautiful user interfaces (for
high end workstations) or create simple interfaces for NetBooks.  Even
though the NetBook and a Notebook or workstation will both perform
quite nicely under Linux, the OEM can provide much more VALUE for the
more expensive machines.  This could even include things like higher
resolution displays.  For $120, you can upgrade from WXGA 1280x768 to
WUXGA 1900x1200.  That's $120 you don't have to spend on Windows and
extra RAM for Windows.

> http://ca.biz.yahoo.com/ibd/080807/tech.html?.v=1

> Why sharing matters more than marketshare to GNU/Linux
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | In a recent article, Ryan Cartwright argued that free software isn’t playing
> | the “same game” as proprietary software is. He’s right—but that begs the
> | question: what game is GNU/Linux playing?

> | Thirty years of proprietary software thinking have conditioned us to think
> | that marketshare is a critical measure of success, and so we’ve convinced
> | ourselves that we have to “win” against Windows in order to “succeed”. But
> | this is simply not true. GNU/Linux can be a very great success even if it
> | never achieves more than 1% of the installations in the world. The reason is
> | the difference between “power” and “freedom”.

IBM's mainframes are a prime example of "There can be only one" to
very effective sharing of one piece of hardware with multiple
operating interfaces.  IBM found whole new markets for the Z series by
using virtualization to put Linux, UNIX, and MVS on the same
mainframe.

Many businesses that were cutting back on their mainframes have now
increased their use of mainframes, using Linux VMs to replace hundreds
or even thousands of Windows and Unix servers and lower their energy
costs, maintenance costs, and support costs.

In the same way, Microsoft may find that their financial future will
depend heavily on their ability to "Play Nice" with Linux as the
"native" operating system as well as sharing a Linux controlled
desktop.  Microsoft may have to play nice with X11, as well as playing
nice with virtualization.

> http://www.freesoftwaremagazine.com/columns/sharing_matters_more_than...
>

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