In comp.os.linux.advocacy, amicus_curious
<ACDC@xxxxxxx>
wrote
on Wed, 16 Jul 2008 16:17:18 -0400
<487e574f$0$15567$ec3e2dad@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>:
>
> "7" <website_has_email@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
> news:eSqfk.27997$E41.21826@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>
>> Oddly, thats exactly what is happening.
>> Linux desktop expanding at the rate of 1 million+ new desktops
>> per week. Embedded Linux now selling 3 million+ embedded
>> Linux gadgets PER DAY.
>>
> Why it couldn't be more than a few months before Linux is just popping out
> of every pore then! Imagine, more than a billion a year! You guys are sure
> riding a rocket! How long has this been going on and how come nobody seems
> to notice?
>
Not to mention that 1M+ new desktops in a 500M desktop market
is 0.2% per year...a value that would probably be noticed if
the initial value is the aforementioned claimed 0.80% from
http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=8
If the market was more like 250M one gets 0.4% per year, and
that will *certainly* be noticed.
The trend for Linux
http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=9
suggests that Linux is only adding about 0.36% per year,
(or 0.33% over 11 months) assuming these numbers are
anywhere near accurate.
That translates to 0.9M+ Linux boxes if the total desktop
market is 250M, and 1.8M+ Linux boxes if the total market
is 500M. (Admittedly there are other factors, such as the
growth of the entire market.)
Perhaps 1M+ is indeed an underestimate;
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080104-evaluating-prospects-for-linux-growth-in-2008.html
suggests that 5 million Eee pcs will be sold this year alone.
(Since this was published on Jan 4th, one might anticipate
2000 * 365 = 730,000 units at least. Good question as to
how sustainable that rate is, given the current economic
muddle.)
Contrast that to Windows' trend, which is actually going
*down*. In Aug 2007 Hitslink reports 93.06%, but in
July 2008 that's dropped to 90.89%. How much of that is
because of new non-Windows units, how much because Vista
is confusing hitslink, and how much because old Windows
units were slicked and replaced with something else,
I for one can't say.
In the Versions trend:
http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=11
Vista shows a nice uptick adoption-wise -- 6.29% in Aug 2007
to 16.14% in June 2008 (+9.85%) -- and that's more than enough to
offset the XP loss of 80.84% to 71.20% (-9.64%). However, older
models (which might be in Other) of Windows might be in a
rather steep decline; certainly Windows 98 and Windows ME
are probably being replaced by something. (One hopes it's Linux.)
For its part w3schools:
http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp
reports that IE7 is now at 27% but Firefox is a whopping 41%.
Much of Firefox's gain is being stolen from IE6. Contrariwise,
http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=0
suggests only 19%.
http://mozillalinks.org/wp/2008/01/firefox-global-market-share-reaches-211/
suggests 21.1%, as of Dec 2007; the linked-to XitiMonitor
suggests 28.0% but only in Europe.
One therefore should take all of these numbers with the
usual grain of salt.
--
#191, ewill3@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Useless C++ Programming Idea #110309238:
item * f(item *p) { if(p = NULL) return new item; else return p; }
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