The Ghost In The Machine wrote:
> Not to mention that 1M+ new desktops in a 500M desktop market
> is 0.2% per year...a value that would probably be noticed if
> the initial value is the aforementioned claimed 0.80% from
> http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=8
>
> If the market was more like 250M one gets 0.4% per year, and
> that will certainly be noticed.
>
> The trend for Linux
> http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=9
> suggests that Linux is only adding about 0.36% per year,
> (or 0.33% over 11 months) assuming these numbers are
> anywhere near accurate.
>
> That translates to 0.9M+ Linux boxes if the total desktop
> market is 250M, and 1.8M+ Linux boxes if the total market
> is 500M. (Admittedly there are other factors, such as the
> growth of the entire market.)
>
> Perhaps 1M+ is indeed an underestimate;
With respect, Ghost, I think that you are perhaps confusing different figures.
In fact, I believe that you are confusing the number/% of linux desktops sold
over the past year with the total number of Linux desktops in use!
Let us assume (by taking estimates close to your own) that:-
- A year ago, 0.44% of desktops were Linux, and today it is 0.8%
- Let us take your figure of 250M new desktops over that year.
- Let us (for the sake of the argument) assume that there were 1,000M desktops
a year ago, so that there are now 1,250M (forget "retired" machines for the
moment - this is an illustration)
If 0.8% of new desktops were Linux, that would indicate 2M new Linux
machines(0.8% of 250M) (Your 0.36% of 250M = 0.9M is not meaningfull - it's
merely how many EXTRA machines you sell if your share of the 250M goes from
0.44 to 0.8%)
HOWEVER, the 0.8% refers to TOTAL machines!
The 0.8% is NOT a measure of market share - it is a measure of % user base!
0.8% of the 1,250M is about 10M, and THAT is what was being measured, however
biased the measurement.
There were already (we were reckoning) 4.4M Linux desktops.
NEW Linux desktops ( none retired) comes out at 5.6M NEW machines!
5.6M as a percentage of the total 250M sold is actually = 2.24%
Please feel free to pick holes in that. I could well be wrong:-)
btw, the 0.8% figure is (always) being quoted here because it's the LOWEST
figure that the Windows enthusiasts can find:-)
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