The assumption here is that desktops as we know them will morph/evolve,
leaving Open Source in a batter position, owing to modularity.
Is an HCI revolution just around the corner?
,----[ Quote ]
| Personal computing launched with the IBM PC. But popular computing
| - computing for the masses - launched with the modern WIMP (windows,
| icons, mouse, pointer) interface, which made computers usable by
| ordinary people. As popular computing has grown, the role of HCI
| (human-computer interaction) has increased.
`----
http://www.acmqueue.com/modules.php?name=Content&pa=showpage&pid=402&page=1
You might argue that people will be forced or compelled to move forward (e.g.
multiple workspaces), so the Linux transition will be a burden on par with
upgrade of an existing O/S. Small mobile devices are another example.