On 2006-05-23, The Ghost In The Machine <ewill@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> A profit of $33B can hardly be called "dwindling". Of course, one would
> hope that they eventually *do* dwindle, or at least abandon the desktop
> marketplace.
I don't even want that. I just want them to compete on merits instead
of inertia. They do have some clever people; if they were producing
software *for* the users instead of *to control them* they could be
useful.
In this vein:
http://www.computerpoweruser.com/editorial/article.asp?article=
articles/archive/c0605/03c05/03c05.asp&source=1359
"[Microsoft] has an army of deluded geniuses who can easily disregard
external criticism as the ignorant braying of cattle who just arenâ??t
bright enough to understand why they need to be connected to a milking
machine."
> (Then again, Linux works in so many other marketplaces Microsoft may
> very well find itself surrounded! :-) )
They are, in fact. There are two areas they are profiting in: desktops
and servers. Server penetration is blunted by Linux, and the real fight
hasn't started yet - Linux is still grabbing the low-hanging fruit of
Unix installations primarily. Once those are gone, the pressure on MS
ramps up considerably.
WinCE is *only* doing all right on PDAs (a dying market itself), and
is an also-ran everywhere else in the embedded world. They have a
presence in game consoles, but that has yet to show net profit. (I'd say
"any profit" but they *did* have a profitable quarter. Once.)
Even in desktops and servers they are having issues. Spreading to the
developing world is quite difficult given the economics of their
licensing schemes, and the more they clamp down on piracy the more
potential customers they'll send toward Linux.
I think the economics of Linux just make too much sense. Microsoft has
a large base, but it's hitting growth limits. I basically foresee a
stall followed by a gradual decline. Eventually they will stabilize at
some (quite probably sizeable) fraction of the desktop market, maybe
some server too, and hold it by competing more honestly.
To paraphrase Winston Churchill, I believe Microsoft will do the right
thing... after they've exhausted the alternatives.
--
Sincerely,
Ray Ingles (313) 227-2317
Two rules for success in life:
1. Don't tell people everything you know.
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