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Re: Vista market share put into perspective

"Roy Schestowitz" <newsgroups@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message 
news:1570083.iAknrcEKNF@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> __/ [ Richard Rasker ] on Monday 04 June 2007 13:44 \__
>
>>
>> There's a lot of jeering from wintrolls that Vista's marketshare 
>> continues
>> to rise, in spite of the fact that it's not exactly everyone's favourite,
>> according to even the most optimistic surveys.
>>
>> So, howcome Vista reached almost 4% market share in 4 months time? And,
>> more importantly, is this an indication that Vista is really popular? The
>> answer is amazingly simple: no, Vista is not popular at all, but there's
>> simply nothing else on sale; going shopping for a new Windows PC means
>> coming home with Vista in an estimated 90% of cases.
>>
>> Assuming that a Windows PC on average gets replaced after 4 years, every
>> year, 25% of Windows PC's are replaced with new Windows PC's - say 2% per
>> month.
>>
>> So based on this calculation, one would expect a Vista adoption rate of
>> approximately two percent per month - which would mean that now, after
>> being on sale for four months, Vista should have a market share of eight
>> percent at least - and perhaps even nine or ten percent when taking an
>> initial sales boost into account.
>>
>> The reality is quite different: the initial sales boost trumpeted by
>> Microsoft mainly seems to consist of channel stuffing. And even with 
>> Vista
>> now force-fed to buyers of new computers, the adoption rate is not even
>> one percent per month - less than half the natural PC replacement rate,
>> and there are no signs of Vista adoption speeding up yet.
>>
>> The explanation can only be that Vista isn't half as popular as those
>> liar^H^H^H^Hmarketeers from Redmond and the wintrolls here want us to
>> believe.
>>
>> So what is really going on? Most signs point into the direction of people
>> putting off buying a Vista machine for the near future at least; this is
>> also what I hear from the sales channels: they won't recommend Vista
>> wholeheartedly, not unless most of the current problems are ironed out.
>> And if this is already the case with consumers, businesses are far more
>> wary and conservative. Most companies have a wait-and-see policy with
>> regard to Vista, with the "wait" part being at least a year.
>>
>> Then, no doubt, quite a number of people won't buy a new Windows computer
>> any more, and switch to a Mac or to Linux - I alone got five new Linux
>> users who ditched Windows because they weren't impressed by Vista
>> whatsoever.
>>
>>
>> This was advanced Microsoft math class for today; back to the wintrolls
>> who no doubt can cook up an explanation why 1% market share increase per
>> month is a fantastic figure.
>
> Lies, damn lies and statisitics. ComputerWorld debunks and address a lot 
> of
> these lies.
>
> Nine burning questions about how Vista is really doing
>
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | Instead, there's so much spin   -- from Microsoft,  from rivals such
> | as Apple Inc.,  from market analysts pushing research and more research
> | -- it would even leave Sasha Cohen dizzy. Here's our attempt to unravel
> | this puzzle-shrinkwrapped-in-a-mystery.
> `----
>
> http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9021838
> http://tinyurl.com/2u6gzq
>



This really clears things up. From the article -

Microsoft is clearly shipping more operating systems this time around. That 
translates to higher sales and profits. Microsoft's operating system revenue 
between October 2006 and the end of March this year -- the quarter when it 
began shipping Vista and pre-selling it to consumers, and the quarter of its 
official release -- was $7.86 billion. That is 72% higher than its revenue 
in the same quarters around XP's launch, $4.57 billion.


Moreover, while Windows XP is now widely considered to be Microsoft's most 
successful OS ever, it actually started off as one of its weakest.


Jupiter Research's Michael Gartenberg  says he's far from blown away by 
Vista's uptake rate. "What we're seeing is normal demand," he said.
(So all this BS about people rejecting Vista is simply BS. Demand is normal. 
COLA idiots are not.)


You mean like channel stuffing? ... That leaves conspiracy theorists and 
anti-Softies some ammo. But analysts say they haven't seen anything to 
indicate this. "It's not even worthy of discussion," said Gartenberg.
(Ricky Raskers claim of channel stuffing is some sort of stuffing that he 
pulled out of his ass.)







> -- 
>                ~~ Enjoying summertime

>From the dorm room where you spam 24/7/365?



>
> Roy S. Schestowitz      | Windows O/S: chmod a-x internet; kill -9 
> internet
> http://Schestowitz.com  |  GNU is Not UNIX  |     PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
> roy      pts/3                         Mon Jun  4 10:49 - 10:53  (00:04)
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