On Aug 13, 3:17 am, Roy Schestowitz <newsgro...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
> -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
> > Compare that to the approximately $2.153 trillion it
> > would cost using more traditional 4th rate postal rates
> > (11.5 cents per missive).
> > Small wonder spam mail is so prevalent; it's dirt cheap.
> > Saves trees, too. :-)
> > [rest snipped]
> > [+] I pay $40 per month for a 1.5Mb/s ISDN connection. There are
> > cheaper plans, I'm sure.
>
> It's the cost of cybercrime, not bandwidth you should look at.
Let's look at that, shall we? You can plug in your own numbers, but I
think you will find that Microsoft "spam-bots" is costing us a lot
more than you might think.
Figure that each PC user spends 1 hour per day sorting out the spam,
at even $10 per hour, times 1 billion users, that's $10 billion. Most
PC using professionals make more like $20 to $40 per hour, and actual
costs are closer to $50-60 per hour. So maybe an average of $50 per
hour or it's equvalent, for $50 billion.
Viral infections typically result in at least 6 calls to user support
per year, at an average of 4 hours from discovery to resolution, for 2
people, so that's another 8 hours times $50 or $400 billion eqivalent.
Disk corruuption and "DLL Hell" due to viral infections mean that PCs
have to be reimaged on average once per year. Let's just assume 40
hours, at $50 an hour, for a total of $4 trillion equivalent.
The viagra may end up in the hands of people who have health
conditions, figure 1 million people having an average medical bills of
$10,000 each for stroke heart attack treatment. That's another $10
billion. Make it $1 trillion for the diet pills, pseudo viagra, and
other hazardous drugs given to people who would have been disqualified
by a licensed doctor in most countries.
The "Nicaragua Oil money", "Inheritance", and "lottery winnings" scams
typically get about 1 in 1000 PC users, so about 1 million users, who
lose $100,000 worth of 401K or retirement money, or house mortgage.
There goes another $100 billion.
Then the mortgage brokers who give you cut rate subprime loans without
explaining the consequences of that 1% increase on a 5% rate interest
only loan, that gets about 10 million people per year, for an average
of $300,000 per house, for a total of about $3 TRILLION per year
(equivalent).
Much of that money ends up in the hands of drug dealers and
terrorists, to fund drug distribution, training of terrorists and
militia for exterminations like Darfur, and sex slavery, including
kidnapping of children as sex workers. Hard to put the price on that
one. If you figure that 10 million people are killed worldwide from
these practices, that's a pretty hefty drop in productivity. Assume
each person is capable of productivity equivalent to $10 per hour, or
$20,000 per year, and that puts the cost at about $200 billion per
year in lost productivity.
So Microsoft's "spam-bots" cost the global economy the equivalent of
about $6 trillion per year in lost productivity. This is masked by
differential exchange rates, since a worker in China might only make
$4 per day, but that's the purchasing power equivalent to about 10
times that value when converted into imports to the United States,
Europe, or other "western" countries. Conversely, the exports from
Western countries are converted to prices relative to income, so a PC
might cost $30, or roughly a week's pay. About what it would cost in
the US, a week's pay.
Now multiply that 10-fold, for the money diverted to these criminal
enterprises and away from things like anti-malaria drugs and mesquito
netting. A disease that kills how many millions each year?
And 100 fold for the money diverted away from education, water
purification, sea water desalination, water storage and diversion
projects that make inland agriculture practical and productive.
And 1000 fold for the money diverted away from the development of safe
nuclear energy from breeder reactors, cost-effective solar panels,
windmills that can withstand tornadoes, and cost-effective renewable
transportation fuels from renewable sources such as urban sewage,
organic waste products, and effective electric storage and propulsion
systems.
Imagine if hybrid car efficiency improved as much as computer system
efficiency. Once freed of speed fluctuations, turbine engines, highly
supercharged low displacement engines, and highly efficient mixes of
fuel, gases, and other improvements could gives us a 100 Mpg car in 5
years, and a 200 Mpg car in 10 years.
And maybe it's time we began to explore alternatives to traditional
"point to point driving". There are many urban centers where fuel
efficient buses could shuttle people from housing centers to rail
stations, and highly efficient trains could shuttle them to shopping
centers, recreational centers, and office complexes or manufacturing
centers, using a fraction of the fuel we use in the United States.
Maybe we should explore U.S. versions of the Auto-rickshaw, or even
use golf carts that can be shared to shuttle to/from the the mass-
transit pick-up points. If riders don't have to wait longer than 10
minutes for a ride, any time between 6 AM and 10 PM, and no longer
than 20 minutes for a ride from 10 PM to 6 AM, and are assured a way
of getting home 24 hours a day, they will willingly switch to mass
transit.
Much like the phone company had to deal with the "last mile",
alternatives in climate appropriate personal transportation for that
last mile or two is the key to a successful fuel efficient mass
transit system.
But instead, we'd rather let Microsoft's "Spam-bots" try to bilk our
grandparents or parents out of their retirement savings, are parents
out of their houses, and our children out of any chance of a
productive life. Because they would rather play video games on Vista
or XBox than actually learn to think creatively, express themselves
effectively, and work toward achieving real goals in the world.
> - --
> ~~ Best of wishes
>
> Roy S. Schestowitz
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