Phil Da Lick! <phil_the_lickREMOVETHISSPAMTRAP@xxxxxxxxxxx> espoused:
> Mark Kent wrote:
>> Phil Da Lick! <phil_the_lickREMOVETHISSPAMTRAP@xxxxxxxxxxx> espoused:
>>> Mark Kent wrote:
>>>>> It's a gradual thing and an overstatement, for sure.
>>>> I don't agree that it's an overstatement. I've just received Dabs'
>>>> latest catalogue, and guess how many Vista logos there were? None. Not
>>>> one. Clearly, nobody is interested.
>>>>
>>>> How many desktop machines? Well, maybe one. Perhaps.
>>>> How many laptops/mobile devices? 30+
>>>> How many appliances? Several.
>>>>
>>>> Of particular note is that latest Archos 605? with integrated GPS.
>>>>
>>>> Times change, requirements change, people change. Nobody is interested
>>>> in accessing things which are locked into one place, which is the
>>>> fundamental idea behind the "desktop" computer.
>>>
>>> Trouble with the IT industry is the buzz is always about the growth.
>>> Desktops are kinda plateauing at the moment and all the movers and
>>> shakers have got major cloud bonage syndrome. That doesn't make desktops
>>> irrelevant.
>>
>> The existing plant will be around for years, I'm sure, and there will
>> always be some people who want a desktop machine, just as some people
>> still travel by horse and cart even today.
>>
>> I've written and presented at massive length on the "3-technology issue"
>> - there are many examples:
>>
>> shellack 78s->vinyl microgroove->CD->DVD->Internet/mp3/ogg
>>
>> At any one time, there's almost always 3 (or sometimes more) technologies
>> in place at the same time. There are the "legacy" formats which are
>> mostly being migrated onto something more modern, the "current generation"
>> and the "new".
>>
>> Desktop does not feature in the "new", nor in the "current", it's a
>> mainly "legacy" approach, but it always takes time to step between them,
>> and there are some who will always hang onto the old stuff.
>>
>> It's essential to recognise the economic impact of the "new" trends,
>> though - currently, there's a lot of hardware around for the last
>> generations of IBM-PC-like machines. However, so few of those are being
>> sold new that the manufacturers will stop making the cards, peripherals
>> and even chipsets in the end. Thus, a slow but significant decline even
>> in the maintainability of older equipment has already begun.
>>
>> Have you tried to repair a 5¼" drive recently? It's practically
>> impossible to get parts. What about one of those ancient 3" drives as
>> used on Amstrad machines? Same again. Even a drive-belt is hard to
>> find.
>>
>> I have an ancient Leak Stereo 20 valve amplifier, which I've used since
>> I was a schoolkid. I rebuilt it about 10 years ago, and even then,
>> getting resistors with a high-enough voltage rating was tough, and
>> getting capacitors of low-value with a high voltage rating was hard.
>>
>> I'm not anti-desktop, I'm just facing the reality.
>
> All very interesting but the desktop is going nowhere. Cloud-boners who
> believe indivisuals or companies will (a) allow other 3rd parties to
> host/control their data,
How many people do you know who use google mail? Hosted Web services?
I think you're failing to face reality here.
> and (b) move completely to a pay-as-you-go
> software model (which is the ultimate destination of the cloud model),
> are living in la-la land.
The Daily Telegraph migrated to Google Office just a couple of weeks
ago. Sorry, but you're living in the past, this is already happening.
Payment is a different issue, of course, but that's subject to the
normal rules of trading, ie., you need to set the price right.
> Truth is client/server has been around for
> decades and we've all still got desktops.
Few of my colleagues have desktops, in fact, I can't recall the last
time anyone was issued with anything other than a laptop or blackberry
or other mobile device. Desktops died out long ago... all the
big-selling stuff is mobility, appliances. Phones, laptops,
ultra-mobile web-tablets, GPS devices, etc. So, I, me personally, am
the only person I know who uses a desktop on a regular basis.
Actually, thinking very carefully about this, of all the scores of
people I work with on a regular basis, I can only think of 1 who has a
desktop machine, and he also has a laptop too.
Have you seen the latest Archos player? It includes, guess what? A
GPS! If I take a look around my house and see what's what in devices,
appliances and so on, I get the following list:
Kids/gaming:
------------
2 x debian gaming desktop
1 x dual PPC powermac (OSX + kubuntu no1 son)
1 x mac-mini (OSX + kubuntu no1 son)
My desktop
----------
1 x ubuntu desktop (my office machine)
Mobility devices, laptops, tablets
-----------------------------------
2 x toshiba Windows laptop (work me & Mrs Mark)
1 x HP laptop (xubuntu - no2 son)
2 x GP2X-F200 (kids)
2 x GP2X (kids)
2 x Nokia N770 (me)
1 x Nokia 800 (me)
1 x Archos 405 (Mrs Mark)
1 x Motorola A780 phone (me)
Appliances & servers
--------------------
1 x PS3 running Ubuntu (no2 son)
1 x debian file/yp server/web host server etc.
1 x bubba excito file/media server
2 x white-russian linux wrt54gl routers
1 x mythtv/ubuntu appliance (all)
Of those, the desktops are all old, around 3yrs+, except my
personal one which is about 1 year old. Obviously, there's a load of
old kit outside in storage which will probably end up at the skip in the
end, but maybe not. Also, I exclude older stuff like the Psions,
sinclair machines and so on, as this stuff is not regularly used.
--
| mark at ellandroad dot demon dot co dot uk |
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