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Re: [News] Microsoft's Partner Group Says GNU/Linux' Desktop Market Share is 4%

Phil Da Lick! <phil_the_lickREMOVETHISSPAMTRAP@xxxxxxxxxxx> espoused:
> Mark Kent wrote:
>> Phil Da Lick! <phil_the_lickREMOVETHISSPAMTRAP@xxxxxxxxxxx> espoused:
>>> Mark Kent wrote:
>>>>> It's a gradual thing and an overstatement, for sure.
>>>> I don't agree that it's an overstatement.  I've just received Dabs'
>>>> latest catalogue, and guess how many Vista logos there were?  None.  Not
>>>> one.  Clearly, nobody is interested.
>>>> How many desktop machines?  Well, maybe one.  Perhaps. 
>>>> How many laptops/mobile devices?  30+
>>>> How many appliances?  Several.  
>>>> Of particular note is that latest Archos 605? with integrated GPS.
>>>> Times change, requirements change, people change.  Nobody is interested
>>>> in accessing things which are locked into one place, which is the
>>>> fundamental idea behind the "desktop" computer.
>>> Trouble with the IT industry is the buzz is always about the growth. 
>>> Desktops are kinda plateauing at the moment and all the movers and 
>>> shakers have got major cloud bonage syndrome. That doesn't make desktops 
>>> irrelevant.
>> The existing plant will be around for years, I'm sure, and there will
>> always be some people who want a desktop machine, just as some people
>> still travel by horse and cart even today.
>> I've written and presented at massive length on the "3-technology issue"
>> - there are many examples:
>> shellack 78s->vinyl microgroove->CD->DVD->Internet/mp3/ogg
>> At any one time, there's almost always 3 (or sometimes more) technologies
>> in place at the same time.  There are the "legacy" formats which are
>> mostly being migrated onto something more modern, the "current generation"
>> and the "new".
>> Desktop does not feature in the "new", nor in the "current", it's a
>> mainly "legacy" approach, but it always takes time to step between them,
>> and there are some who will always hang onto the old stuff.
>> It's essential to recognise the economic impact of the "new" trends,
>> though - currently, there's a lot of hardware around for the last
>> generations of IBM-PC-like machines.  However, so few of those are being
>> sold new that the manufacturers will stop making the cards, peripherals
>> and even chipsets in the end.  Thus, a slow but significant decline even
>> in the maintainability of older equipment has already begun.
>> Have you tried to repair a 5¼" drive recently?  It's practically
>> impossible to get parts.  What about one of those ancient 3" drives as
>> used on Amstrad machines?  Same again.  Even a drive-belt is hard to
>> find.
>> I have an ancient Leak Stereo 20 valve amplifier, which I've used since
>> I was a schoolkid.  I rebuilt it about 10 years ago, and even then,
>> getting resistors with a high-enough voltage rating was tough, and
>> getting capacitors of low-value with a high voltage rating was hard.
>> I'm not anti-desktop, I'm just facing the reality.
> All very interesting but the desktop is going nowhere. Cloud-boners who 
> believe indivisuals or companies will (a) allow other 3rd parties to 
> host/control their data, 

How many people do you know who use google mail?  Hosted Web services?
I think you're failing to face reality here. 

> and (b) move completely to a pay-as-you-go 
> software model (which is the ultimate destination of the cloud model), 
> are living in la-la land. 

The Daily Telegraph migrated to Google Office just a couple of weeks
ago.  Sorry, but you're living in the past, this is already happening.
Payment is a different issue, of course, but that's subject to the
normal rules of trading, ie., you need to set the price right.

> Truth is client/server has been around for 
> decades and we've all still got desktops.

Few of my colleagues have desktops, in fact, I can't recall the last
time anyone was issued with anything other than a laptop or blackberry
or other mobile device.  Desktops died out long ago...  all the
big-selling stuff is mobility, appliances.  Phones, laptops,
ultra-mobile web-tablets, GPS devices, etc.  So, I, me personally, am
the only person I know who uses a desktop on a regular basis. 

Actually, thinking very carefully about this, of all the scores of
people I work with on a regular basis, I can only think of 1 who has a
desktop machine, and he also has a laptop too.

Have you seen the latest Archos player?  It includes, guess what?  A
GPS!  If I take a look around my house and see what's what in devices,
appliances and so on, I get the following list:

2 x debian gaming desktop
1 x dual PPC powermac (OSX + kubuntu no1 son)
1 x mac-mini (OSX + kubuntu no1 son)

My desktop
1 x ubuntu desktop (my office machine)

Mobility devices, laptops, tablets
2 x toshiba Windows laptop (work me & Mrs Mark)
1 x HP laptop (xubuntu - no2 son)
2 x GP2X-F200 (kids)
2 x GP2X (kids)
2 x Nokia N770 (me)
1 x Nokia 800 (me)
1 x Archos 405 (Mrs Mark)
1 x Motorola A780 phone (me)

Appliances & servers
1 x PS3 running Ubuntu (no2 son)
1 x debian file/yp server/web host server etc.
1 x bubba excito file/media server
2 x white-russian linux wrt54gl routers
1 x mythtv/ubuntu appliance (all)

Of those, the desktops are all old, around 3yrs+, except my
personal one which is about 1 year old.  Obviously, there's a load of
old kit outside in storage which will probably end up at the skip in the
end, but maybe not.  Also, I exclude older stuff like the Psions,
sinclair machines and so on, as this stuff is not regularly used.

| mark at ellandroad dot demon dot co dot uk                           |
| Cola faq:  http://www.faqs.org/faqs/linux/advocacy/faq-and-primer/   |
| Cola trolls:  http://colatrolls.blogspot.com/                        |
| Open platforms prevent vendor lock-in.  Own your Own services!       |

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