Mark Kent wrote:
Phil Da Lick! <phil_the_lickREMOVETHISSPAMTRAP@xxxxxxxxxxx> espoused:
Mark Kent wrote:
It's a gradual thing and an overstatement, for sure.
I don't agree that it's an overstatement. I've just received Dabs'
latest catalogue, and guess how many Vista logos there were? None. Not
one. Clearly, nobody is interested.
How many desktop machines? Well, maybe one. Perhaps.
How many laptops/mobile devices? 30+
How many appliances? Several.
Of particular note is that latest Archos 605? with integrated GPS.
Times change, requirements change, people change. Nobody is interested
in accessing things which are locked into one place, which is the
fundamental idea behind the "desktop" computer.
Trouble with the IT industry is the buzz is always about the growth.
Desktops are kinda plateauing at the moment and all the movers and
shakers have got major cloud bonage syndrome. That doesn't make desktops
irrelevant.
The existing plant will be around for years, I'm sure, and there will
always be some people who want a desktop machine, just as some people
still travel by horse and cart even today.
I've written and presented at massive length on the "3-technology issue"
- there are many examples:
shellack 78s->vinyl microgroove->CD->DVD->Internet/mp3/ogg
At any one time, there's almost always 3 (or sometimes more) technologies
in place at the same time. There are the "legacy" formats which are
mostly being migrated onto something more modern, the "current generation"
and the "new".
Desktop does not feature in the "new", nor in the "current", it's a
mainly "legacy" approach, but it always takes time to step between them,
and there are some who will always hang onto the old stuff.
It's essential to recognise the economic impact of the "new" trends,
though - currently, there's a lot of hardware around for the last
generations of IBM-PC-like machines. However, so few of those are being
sold new that the manufacturers will stop making the cards, peripherals
and even chipsets in the end. Thus, a slow but significant decline even
in the maintainability of older equipment has already begun.
Have you tried to repair a 5¼" drive recently? It's practically
impossible to get parts. What about one of those ancient 3" drives as
used on Amstrad machines? Same again. Even a drive-belt is hard to
find.
I have an ancient Leak Stereo 20 valve amplifier, which I've used since
I was a schoolkid. I rebuilt it about 10 years ago, and even then,
getting resistors with a high-enough voltage rating was tough, and
getting capacitors of low-value with a high voltage rating was hard.
I'm not anti-desktop, I'm just facing the reality.
All very interesting but the desktop is going nowhere. Cloud-boners who
believe indivisuals or companies will (a) allow other 3rd parties to
host/control their data, and (b) move completely to a pay-as-you-go
software model (which is the ultimate destination of the cloud model),
are living in la-la land. Truth is client/server has been around for
decades and we've all still got desktops.
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