On Jan 17, 9:02 pm, Roy Schestowitz <newsgro...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
> ____/ Rex Ballard on Thursday 17 January 2008 21:59 : \____
> > On Jan 17, 10:36 am, Mark Kent <mark.k...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> >> Roy Schestowitz <newsgro...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> espoused:
This is actually pretty good news
> > What's being counted?
> >> > Linux products and services to touch $7.7 bn by 2012
This is actually not a bad thing. Linux license and support fees
range from totally free per unit to $50/unit for most commercial
laptop/desktop systems, to $1500 per processor for a server, it's
pretty tricky to estimate. If you figure that only about 10% of the
Units are purchased or commercially supported, and that the average
for desktops that are supported is $50 per unit, and that the servers
are about 1% of the total market, we can figure that there is about $5
billion in desktop revenue. At $60/unit that would be about $50 per
unit, that's 100 million units. About 10% of the total market.
If you figure that only 1 in 5 units are paid for (license or
support), that means there could be 500 million units, including
cygwin, virtualized clients, and other "hybrid" solutions.
Ironically, Windows XP is the closest thing to "Microsoft Linux",
because there is value added for a Linux user who has a Windows XP
license. Vista on the other hand, has tried to exclude Linux both
legally and technologically, which makes it much less attractive.
> >> > ,----[ Quote ]
> >> >| The market for Linux products and services
> >> > will grow from $2.4 bn in 2007
> >> >| to $7.7 bn in 2012.
> > I've seen presentations by IBM that show Linux in in the $32 bn range.
> I saw this figure as well... several times in the past as a matter of fact.
> It's important to emphasise that Gates-funded analyst firms like IDC and
> Gartner aka "Partner") are not permitted to use anything but Microsoft's
> definitions and raw data, so there's _plenty_ of disinformation.
Still, the the interesting thing is to look at what is being counted
by these organizations, and then extrapulating based on what we know
about the part that wasn't measured.
If IDC has figured that Linux is getting $2.4 billion, and we use
similar thumbnails, that would indicate that Linux is up to about 240
million devices now, which would be about 24% of the market.
Rex Ballard
http://www.open4success.org
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