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Re: Apple's prospects in the recession

On 2008-10-19, nessuno@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <nessuno@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> claimed:

> The numbers will undoubtedly document Apple?s momentum in taking
> market share from Windows-equipped PCs. Yair Reiner, an analyst at
> Oppenheimer & Company, wrote earlier this month that he expected sales
> of Apple?s desktop models to grow 13 percent, to 4.3 million, in the
> 2009 fiscal year and notebook sales to increase by 12 percent, to 6.76
> million. Even if the industry suffers a downturn, he expects that
> Apple will suffer less than its competition and will still gain market
> share. ?The upshot is that even against a very bleak macroeconomic
> backdrop,? Mr. Reiner said, ?Apple should be able to continue
> growing.?

The only thing that makes me wonder about this for the long term is the
fact that I see a lot of Macs for sale on Craig's List, and even in a
couple of local papers that cater to people selling used stuff. Not 5-
or 10-year-old models. Those are there, too. But much later stuff, like
2.2GHz Macbooks, 17" Macbook Pros, 2.8GHz desktops. Many are even
listed as just a few months old.

That makes me wonder how many of those new buyers really are satisfied.
It sure _appears_ some aren't.

I think some of them might run right back to Windwoes if there was one
they thought would actually work. Hopefully the ones dumping the Macs
are moving to linux instead. But wives often run back to the husbands
that beat them, so I wouldn't find it surprising if some of the sellers
are even trying to pick up Vista.

Of course, sales figures don't indicate large numbers moving to Vista.
So they have to be going somewhere, even if it's to another expensive

> Apple need not be much concerned about its rival Microsoft, which can
> do little but bang its head against the wall in despair about the
> Vista fiasco. As if Microsoft?s marketers had not suffered enough
> indignities, Computerworld gleefully discovered last month that some
> images for Microsoft?s ?I?m a PC? campaign posted on the company?s own
> corporate site had been created with Macs. (Microsoft has since
> scrubbed away the incriminating mention of the Mac in the images? meta-
> data.) As well as Macs are doing, analysts say Apple?s greatest
> potential resides in the iPhone. Andy Hargreaves, an analyst at
> Pacific Crest Securities, describes the iPhone as ?the hottest
> consumer electronics product in the world,? a ?game-changing product?
> that outdistances wireless players on the hardware side, like Nokia,
> Motorola and Research In Motion, and all the players on the software
> side, too, including Microsoft, Symbian and Palm.  [Effect of iPhone
> on earnings...]

The iPhone still can't take over. They tie themselves to one carrier.
Not even the best one (IMO), and one some people wouldn't use if it was
the only carrier. Adding Sprint to the mix would help, but it has the
same sort of bad taste for some people.

The RAZR still has more people using it to do web stuff than the
iPhone, and in total users. For web use the iPhone is actually fourth
according to one company that keeps statistics:



> IF hard times do arrive, Apple has a perfectly clean balance sheet,
> with $20.8 billion in cash and no debt. The biggest problem that its
> corporate treasury faces is what to do with the cash, which Shannon
> Cross, of Cross Research, estimates will grow to about $30 billion by
> the end of 2009.

Maybe they can pick up where Microslop left off, gobbling up everything
else, such a YAHOO! until they use it all up and can't INNOVA~1 any

Windows: In what position would you like to be taken today?

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