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____/ bbgruff on Wednesday 09 Sep 2009 00:33 : \____
> Roy Schestowitz wrote:
>
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>> ____/ Goblin on Tuesday 08 Sep 2009 23:15 : \____
>>
>>> bbgruff wrote:
>>>> Obviously, Windows 7 will be extremely successful.
>>>> How do we show *how* successful though?
>>>> - and how will we (say by the end of this year) be able to convince any
>>>> doubters (Heaven forbid!) in this group?
>>>>
>>>> Logically, by agreeing here and now (before the smelly stuff hits the
>>>> rotating thingy) just how successful Windows *needs* to be to
>>>> be "successful".
>>>>
>>>> Let's try some sums.
>>>> I'll make some assumptions wrt numbers, and you guys feel free to
>>>> correct me if you think I'm too far out:-
>>>>
>>>> 1. Total number of "Windows-capable" computers in the world is between
>>>> 1,200M and 1,500M
>>>> (Of these, maybe 1,000M are connected to the Internet).
>>>>
>>>> 2. Sales of PCs is the order of 300M peryear, the vast majority having
>>>> Windows pre-installed.
>>>>
>>>> 3. Thus, we expect the "take-over" by Windows 7 to be at a rate of about
>>>> 20%% to 25% a year.
>>>> Shall we say 1.5% per month?
>>>> That really is "toning it down a bit" to 18% a year.
>>>>
>>>> 4. This take-up will be helped by the fact that virtually all netbooks
>>>> will ship with Windows 7, and thus Windows 7 will no longer be fighting
>>>> against XP on netbooks (or anything else), as was the case with Vista.
>>>>
>>>> 5. In addition, we must remember that:-
>>>> a) All new machines since July(?) will have sold with
>>>> a "W7 upgrade free" option
>>>> b) This will be such a superb OS that people will be buying it
>>>> retail, assisted by MS's king low-price pre-order offers.
>>>> (and reduced prices until end 2009)
>>>>
>>>> Thus, by 1st December, we expect to see:-
>>>> 4 months of new P.C. "free upgrade" sales
>>>> Lots of early adopters buying retail
>>>> 1 full month of "pre-installed" sales.
>>>> Up to 2% still using RC etc.
>>>>
>>>> That is, on 1st December, we expect to see "Market (user) Share" figures
>>>> of at least 10% for Windows 7, and thereafter increasing at 1.5% per
>>>> month.
>>>>
>>>> Ambitious? Hardly - that's about the rate that XP went, and what MS
>>>> needs to do to replace what it now has in the field by Windows 7 over a
>>>> period of about 5 years - say by end 2014.
>>>>
>>>> We'll see how it goes, eh?
>>>> - and please feel free to dispute those figures, but would prefer
>>>> logical argument to rhetoric.
>>>>
>>>>
>>> I am not going to dispute those figures since it will only serve to turn
>>> this thread into a time wasting set of irrelevant arguments perpetrated
>>> by those whose reason for being in COLA is at best, pointless.
>>>
>>> What I will ask is this. Where's the part of your post highlighting
>>> WHAT is exactly better in Windows 7 and what makes it worth the upgrade.
>>> Obviously in respect of Vista users its a no brainer, but for XP and
>>> any other OS...what exactly can you do in 7 that I cannot in Linux? or
>>> indeed an XP user?
>>>
>>> All I see in your post is a series of figures and to me the way you seek
>>> to go about convincing "doubters" is by quoting its market
>>> penetration....maybe bigger profits = better OS in your book? I'm old
>>> fashioned and believe that a piece of software has to actually be good
>>> on the basis of its features, not how well its managed to swamp the
>>> market place....maybe thats me being silly.
>>>
>>> Take the analogy of a Bentley and a Corsa....theres alot more Corsa's on
>>> the road than Bentleys but which one is the better car? Popularity !=
>>> greatness and maybe thats why the "gift" loyal Microsoft users were
>>> rewarded with was Vista.
>>>
>>> I'll let those who still use Vista think about that in their own time, I
>>> need not say anymore.
>>
>> Microsoft could, in principle, give Vista 7 free of charge and then claim
>> 'success' (market share), like it did in "netbooks". What we need to watch
>> though is their sharply-declining profit. Microsoft and Windows can't
>> survive without paying wages. The same can't be said about Linux.
>
> Oh indeed, Roy.
> On netbooks, Mr Ballmer has actually spent quite a lot - to keep Linux out.
> In effect, he gave away XP, presumably to win time. Vista would not run on
> them, and the combination of ever-increasing specs and "a better Vista"
> will, he presumably hopes, end that hemorrhage. Interestingly, they will
> soon be being sold with Windows 7 Starter Edition. I assume that means
> much less profit than a "full" W7, and possibly disgruntled customers.
> Netbook sales now represent over 22% by volume of all "portables" btw, so
> quite a chunk of profit gone if he has to continue to give Windows away on
> them.
> Also, note the pro-active marketing in Wal-mart etc. now. *Why* spend money
> decrying Linux if it's true that they scarcely stock Linux?
>
> The only things that I can think of are:-
> - MS needs to convince people that they really *do* want Windows!
> - That the netbook manufacturers have MS over a barrel - "sell
> Windows at *our* price for these devices, or we use Linux"
> - They have their eye on Google (Chrome OS) and have started the
> fight early!
>
> Going back to that word "success" though, you will remember that *Vista* was
> a success? It had sold faster than any OS before it! That however missed
> the point - when Vista came out, the market was a *lot* bigger than when
> any previous OS came out.
> In fact, if you take my figures, and use the similar ones for Vista, I think
> that you will find that Vista sold about half of what it "should" have,
> i.e. what it needed to sell to be a *real* success.
>
> We'll see how W7 does, but bear in mind that my figures (to be corrected if
> anybody can reason that they need to be) actually represent what happens if
> PCs continue to come pre-installed with an MS OS. They are actually the
> base-line below which MS cannot slip if it is to simply maintain its
> position.
> We'll see how it goes, but as you say, the other one to watch is their
> profit margin in all this.
>
> Interesting times? :-)
Well, Microsoft's next quarterly results arrive in late October. The results in
April and July had Microsoft's income fall by _A THIRD_. Twice in a row. It'll
be the same in the future.
Did you try KDE 4.3?
- --
~~ Best of wishes
<alanna>Saying that Java is nice because it works on all OS's is like
saying that anal sex is nice because it works on all genders.
http://Schestowitz.com | Open Prospects | PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
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