The new data from ONS:

Let’s look at what happened before the pandemic:

Compared to this year (so far):

We’re at almost 12,000 deaths per week. It was below 10,000 just a few years ago.

Data file: deaths by week (week 45) (ODF)

Australia, Key statistics

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics/latest-release

In 2022, there were 111,008 deaths that occurred by 31 July,

and were registered by 30 September, which is 16,375

(17.3%) more than the historical average.

In July there were 17,936 deaths,

2,503 (16.2%) above the historical average.

There were 300 (22.5%) fewer deaths due to COVID-19 in August than July.

https://www.bhf.org.uk/what-we-do/news-from-the-bhf/news-archive/2022/november/extreme-heart-care-disruption-linked-to-excess-deaths-involving-heart-disease

Since the pandemic began

Over 30,000 excess deaths involving heart disease

(average over 230 additional deaths a week)

Heart disease is among the most prominent diseases involved in the high numbers of excess deaths since the start of the pandemic.

While Covid-19 infection was likely a significant factor

Covid infections no longer a driving force

https://www.cancer.gov/news-events/press-releases/2021/covid-19-pandemic-disparities-excess-deaths

Meredith S. Shiels, Infections and Immunoepidemiology, NCI Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics

Focusing on COVID-19 deaths alone without examining total excess deaths

—that is, deaths due to non-COVID-19 causes as well as to COVID-19
—may underestimate the true impact of the pandemic

https://www.cdc.gov/cancer/dcpc/research/update-on-cancer-deaths/index.htm

https://www.cancerresearchuk.org

https://news.cancerresearchuk.org/2020/07/21/why-its-difficult-to-estimate-the-number-of-extra-cancer-deaths-caused-by-service-disruption-during-covid-19/

July, 2022

3,600 to 60,000 excess cancer deaths so far

https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/about-cancer/cancer-symptoms

Excess mortality in England and English regions: December 2022 update

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/11/20/true-impact-covid-cancer-patients-revealed-excess-deaths-soar

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/office-for-health-improvement-and-disparities

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

25 to 49 years

Based on 2015 to 2019 data

Description:

Download free high-res PDFs of the posters, download free copies of my two text books. Any donations using this link help the work of campbell teaching.

https://drjohncampbell.co.uk/

I taught bespoke health care as a fundamental principle for decades.

Does natural and hybrid immunity obviate the need for frequent vaccine boosters against SARS-CoV-2 in the endemic phase?

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36366946/

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13906

Stefan Pilz John PA Ioannidis

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has entered its endemic phase

We observe significantly declining infection fatality rates due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

Now

It is crucial but challenging to define current and future vaccine policy,

in a population with a high immunity against SARS-CoV-2,

conferred by previous infections and/or vaccinations.

Vaccine policy must consider the magnitude of the risks conferred by new infection(s),

with current and evolving SARS-CoV-2 variants,

how these risks vary in different groups of individuals,

how to balance these risks against the apparently small, but existent, risks of harms of vaccination,
and the cost-benefit of different options.

More evidence from randomized controlled trials,

and continuously accumulating national health data is required,

to inform shared decision-making with people who consider vaccination options.

Vaccine policy makers should cautiously weight what vaccination schedules are needed,

and refrain from urging frequent vaccine boosters unless supported by sufficient evidence.

The key issue

Whether and how to consider natural immunity after SARS-CoV-2 infections, and hybrid immunity

It is very likely that the large majority of the global population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2,

at least once by late 2022

(Excluding China)

People who have never been infected have probably become a rarity.

It is well established that previous SARS- CoV-2 infections induce a significant and long-lasting protection against reinfections,

and even more so against severe COVID-19.3-6

Lets check the evidence

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35904405/

Risk of reinfection and disease after SARS-CoV-2 primary infection: Meta-analysis

91 studies, n = 15,034,624

Infections n = 158,478 reinfections

During the first 3 months of Omicron wave,

the reinfection rates reached 3.31%.

Overall rates of severe/lethal COVID-19 were very low,

(2-7 per 10,000),

and were not affected by strain predominance.

Conclusions

A strong natural immunity follows the primary infection and may last for more than one year,

suggesting that the risk and health care needs of recovered subjects might be limited.

Although the reinfection rates considerably increased during the Omicron wave,

the risk of a secondary severe or lethal disease remained very low.

The risk-benefit profile of multiple vaccine doses for this subset of population needs to be carefully evaluated.

Back to Pilz, PA loannidis paper

Compared to vaccination by two doses,

natural immunity was associated with a significantly higher protection against SARS-CoV-2 infections before the emergence of Omicron,

when identical times have elapsed since the last immune conferring event.

Denmark

Little viral spread until late 2021,

and then massive infections with Omicron,

ensued in a population that had been widely vaccinated.

Omicron infection fatality rate (IFR) until mid-March 2022,

6.2 per 100,000 infections,

among apparently healthy people 17-72 years

Compared to previous infection waves in Denmark, there was a very significant decline in IFR
Omicron wave
In populations with substantial prior exposure to SARS-CoV-2,
re-infections, less than a quarter of the hospitalization risk,
and one-tenth the mortality
Vojvodina, Serbia
1% of re-infections required hospitalization
Case fatality for re-infections was 0.15%
Accounting for non- ascertained infections,
this suggests that IFR for re-infections,
may be less than 0.05%, (even in people who have not been vaccinated)

Just released:

Description: (in case the video is removed in the future; the author has been cautioned by Google already)

G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration

Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, India, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, and European Union.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/11/16/g20-bali-leaders-declaration/

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/16/g20-bali-leaders-declaration/

Part 22

We recognize that the extensive COVID-19 immunization is a global public good

Section 23

We recognize the need for strengthening local and regional health product manufacturing capacities

We support the WHO mRNA Vaccine Technology Transfer hub

We acknowledge the importance of shared technical standards and verification methods,
to facilitate seamless international travel,

interoperability, and recognizing digital solutions and non-digital solutions,

including proof of vaccinations.

Establishment of trusted global digital health networks,

that should capitalize and build on the success of the existing standards and digital COVID-19 certificates.

Part 24

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the transformation of the digital ecosystem and digital economy.

We recognize the importance of digital transformation in reaching the SDGs.

We also reaffirm the role of data for development, economic growth and social well-being.

G20 update

https://www.g20.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/2022-G20-Bali-Update.pdf

“Endeavour to move towards interoperability of systems including mechanisms that validate proof of vaccination,

whilst respecting the sovereignty of national health policies,

and relevant national regulations such as personal data protection and data-sharing.”

Indonesia’s Minister of Health Budi Gunadi Sadikin

'If you have been vaccinated or tested properly, you can move around..
'We will sub [this digital certificate using WHO standard] into the next World Health Assembly.. as the revision to intl health regulation': Indonesia MoH Budi Sadikin, ex-banker #B20Summit #B20 #DigitalID pic.twitter.com/mt2XugRhiC

— Tim Hinchliffe (@TimHinchliffe) November 14, 2022

G20 countries should adopt digital health certificate using WHO standards

Let’s have a digital health certificate acknowledged by WHO — if you have been vaccinated or tested properly — then you can move around

(next World Health Assembly in Geneva)

WHO seem to be on it already

https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-2019-nCoV-Digital_certificates-vaccination-2021.1

Digital documentation of COVID-19 certificates: vaccination status: technical specifications and implementation guidance, 27 August 2021

Use of scan codes

Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum (WEF) Chair

Attended

From a doctor in Austria

It is currently a very emotional situation in my hospital

(and in general in hospitals in Austria)

because many of us in the health care sector are more or less forced to get a fourth vaccine dose.

Even in my case as a physician who has received three doses and one infection just 6 months ago.

The rule is that if the last vaccination is more than one year and/or the last infection is more than 6 months ago you either have to test all 72 hours or to get an additional vaccine dose;

if not you are at risk of having to pay 500 to 3600 Euros and may even get fired.

Vaccine passports

https://lc.org/newsroom/details/111722-world-leaders-agree-to-implement-vaccine-passports-1

Description:

Association between vitamin D supplementation and COVID-19 infection and mortality

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-24053-4

(12th November 2022)

Johns Hopkins
University of Michigan
National Bureau of Economic Research
Department of Medicine, University of Chicago
Department of Veterans Health Affairs
Department of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago

Vitamin D deficiency, associated with reduced immune function,

can lead to viral infection

Vitamin D deficiency, associated, increases the risk of COVID-19

But is it a treatment / prognosis improver?

Population of US veterans, we show that Vitamin D2 and D3 fills

Associated with reductions in COVID-19 infection

After applying all restrictions

220,265 supplemented with vitamin D3

34,710 supplemented with vitamin D2

407,860 untreated patients.

Study design

Retrospective cohort

Supplemented (before and during the pandemic),

versus untreated controls

One to one matches

D2, D3, or calcifediol

Veterans Administration Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) electronic health records.

Vitamin D levels typically respond to treatment following two months of exposure

D3 cohort

COVID-19 rates for the treated = 2.66%

COVID-19 rates for the untreated = 3.30%

D3 20%, reduction

D2 28% reduction

Mortality within 30-days of COVID-19 infection

Infection ending in mortality within 30 days

D3 group

Treated group death rate after infection = 0.23%

Untreated group death rate after infection = 0.35%

Vitamin D3 33% mortality lower (HR, 67%)

P? less than ?0.001

Vitamin D2 25% lower (HR, 75%) (but not significant)

Veterans receiving higher dosages of Vitamin D obtained greater benefits from supplementation than veterans receiving lower dosages.

Vitamin D blood levels between 0 and 19 ng/ml,

exhibited the largest decrease in COVID-19 infection and mortality following supplementation

(0–19 ng/ml, 20–39 ng/ml, and 40?+?ng/ml)

Dosage options, 20 IU, 40 IU, 100 IU, 125 IU, 200 IU, 250 IU, 400 IU, 500 IU, 800 IU, 1000 IU, 2000 IU, 5000 IU, 8000 IU, and 50,000 IU

Black veterans received greater associated COVID-19 risk reductions, with supplementation than White veterans

As a safe, widely available, and affordable treatment, Vitamin D may help to reduce the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic.

More background

Vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency affect approximately half of the US population,

with increased rates in people with darker skin,

reduced sun exposure,

people living in higher latitudes in the winter,

nursing home residents,

and healthcare workers

Populations with low levels of Vitamin D have also experienced higher rates of COVID-19

New mechanism

Vitamin D is needed to allow T helper cells to control and reduce Interferon gamma (IFN-?) production

Conclusions

These associated reductions in risk are substantial and justify more significant exploration and confirmation using RCTs.

This is particularly important given the high rates of vitamin D deficiency in the US population and COVID-19.

Extrapolate, D3 supplementation to the entire US population in 2020

4 million fewer COVID-19 cases (19,860,000 actual cases)

116,000 deaths avoided (351,999 actual deaths)

Given our findings,

the absence of severe side effects,

the widespread availability of vitamin D3 at low cost,

vitamin D3 presents a unique opportunity to reduce the spread and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic.

K2, MK-7

Supplement, probably 100 micrograms per day

Nato, 1,000 micrograms per 100 g

Cheese, typically 50 micrograms per 100 g

Safe and effective

UK, GP incentives to vaccinate

Home, £30

Standard reimbursement to Primary Care Networks (which then gets passed to GPs) £15

New contract, £12.58 each

Lawrence

I have heard that Dr. John Campbell is in the pocket of Big Overhead Projector Lobby.

Rumour is that he has accepted tens of dollars of under the table expenses.

Anyone else notice that he always seems to have an endless supply of A4 paper and fountain pens?

Data for week 44 (2022): England and Wales: Deaths Up 21% Compared to Pre-COVID-19 Levels, Based on Data Released Only Moments Ago

Comparing this year to 2019 (total number of deaths):

Age under 1: 47 this year, 45 in 2019
Ages 1 to 14: 16 this year, 19 in 2019
Ages 15 to 44: 333 this year, 289 in 2019 (15.2% increase)
Ages 45 to 64: 1395 this year, 1196 in 2019 (16.1% increase)
Ages 65 to 74: 1816 this year, 1663 in 2019 (9.2% increase)
Ages 75 to 84: 3448 this year, 2938 in 2019 (17.4% increase)
85 up: 4740 this year, 4014 in 2019 (18.1% increase)

Conclusion: it seems like all adults (15 or over) are affected almost equally. Deaths rose by about 15%. This isn’t based on some subsample or random sample; it’s the complete data, which us very large.

Minutes ago ONS released these new numbers, which I’ve been eager to see for days (also refreshed the page once in several minutes), having examined closely some troubling trends since the summer. Here’s the update:

We’ve made a local copy as OpenDocument Format (ODF).

For comparison’s sake, here are the latest numbers:

Week 44 deaths in 2019:

11795 (this year) – 9777 (pre-COVID 5-year average) = 2018 or 20.64%.