he December undercount was last mentioned here 7 days ago. It still has not been corrected, so I’ve E-mailed the relevant department of ONS:

Dear Sarah Caul,

I have been tracking ONS data very closely for about a year and I wrote over 100 blog posts about it. Thanks for the relatively (compared to other countries) rapid data disclosure on deaths per week. Corporate media does not need to lie about the data if it can relay false narratives and spin. That’s why people should not rely on the media; check the data. I go by the data. My Ph.D. was in Medical Biophysics, focusing on statistics.

Political intervention is always a threat. You proudly disclose you’re not subjected to political influence. This is great news.

I rely a lot on (and appreciate) the data you release every Tuesday morning at around 10AM. Hence, the integrity of the data is important to me. Editorialising it and repeating government communication strategies (debunked online) distracts from the core data. So I try to stay away from the textual stuff.

In your last update before Christmas you said clearly (in very large fonts) that there was an undercount, which was presented and contained in the datasheet. I took screenshots of that. 3 updates later, however, this number (undercount) has not been amended/corrected. Can you explain, clarify, rectify this? I wish to know what happened in the start of December when there was an undercount.

Kind regards,

If I receive a reply, I will share the gist of it or the whole thing. Depends on sensibilities. If they do not reply, I will ask again. These people are paid by us to inform us.

AM by no means a germophobe. I never was. Chronic and irrational fear of germs, viruses etc. overlooks the point that microorganisms are everywhere, all the time. But over the past few years it’s undeniable that many people overwhelmed hospitals, as COVID-19 had spread, causing massive fatigue in the NHS. Many GPs and nurses resigned. Many others don’t want to go “in there”. Back in 2020 I had an appointment prospectively scheduled by the NHS, but it took them almost 3 months to actually contact me and ask about a date. I had already forgotten about that by then. There was nothing worth going to anymore. In some contexts, such as cancer screeninings, such delays can be lethal/fatal. To be clear, my appointment was for something very minor, predating the worst of COVID-19. I even gave up on it, seeing that other people needed access to physicians a lot more than I needed it.

The mayhem of COVID-19 never ended. A huge number of Brits died last year. In spite of vaccines? Because of them? Lack of funding for the NHS? Lasting effects of COVID recovery? The government does not even bother investigating. It doesn’t wish to know or doesn’t want us to know.

ONS is still publishing figures about deaths, even if data is missing (according to ONS itself!). The “official” figures in https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ are a laughing stock. They’re barely even worth citing anymore as they’re incomplete by design. They became like an instrument of government and media propaganda.

Learning for oneself how safe it is to mingle with people, knowing that the health system is mostly unavailable or barely available, just makes sense. Some people aren’t given a choice because as part of their job — their livelihood — they must interact with people. Masks are increasingly being mocked or frowned upon. Distancing isn’t always possible (in some jobs and activities).

2023 is here and the lock-downs soon turn 3. For some of us, limited social contact (physical, in-person) is still a reality, a fact of life. Let’s wait and see what ONS publishes later today (about 3 hours from now). Are excess deaths still going through the roof? Are more deaths “gone missing”?

New:

Video: (until Google removes it)

Description:

Changes of ECG parameters after BNT162b2 vaccine in the senior high school students

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36602621/

Full text link

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9813456/

Data collected, December 2021

Published, January 2023

Aims

Determine the ECG parameter change

Determine efficacy of ECG screening after the second dose of BNT162b2

In cooperation with the school vaccination system of Taipei City government (Taiwan)

N = 4,928 (mostly male)

12 to 18 year old

Before and after 12 lead ECGs

Three follow up 12 lead ECGs

ECGs read by by pediatric cardiologists

Serial comparisons of ECGs and questionnaire survey

Heart rate increased significantly after the vaccine,

(mean increase of 2.6 beats per minute)

QRS duration and QT interval decreased significantly after the vaccine with increasing heart rate

763 (17.1%) had at least one cardiac symptom after the second vaccine dose.

After the first dose, 209 (5.7%) had at least one cardiac symptom

Cardiac symptoms

Chest pain

Palpitations

Dizziness or syncope

Depolarization and repolarization parameters

All 4 cardiac symptoms significantly higher after the second dose of BNT162b2 vaccine (p less than 0.001)

N = 4,928

Abnormal ECGs were obtained in 51 (1.0%)

31 students were asymptomatic

ST – T changes, 37

Premature ventricular contractions, 4

Sinus bradycardia, 2

Atrial tachycardia, 1

Incomplete right bundle branch block, 3

Abnormal QRS, 2

Prolonged QT, 2

4 judged to have significant arrhythmia

1 was diagnosed with mild myocarditis

10, suspected pericarditis

All of these symptoms improved over time

Asymptomatic at one month

No covid in Taiwan at this time.

Conclusion

Cardiac symptoms are common after the second dose of BNT162b2 vaccine

Incidences of significant arrhythmias and myocarditis are 0.1%

One in a thousand

Rotavirus vaccine Rotashield, (1999)

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd-vac/rotavirus/vac-rotashield-historical.htm

1 to 2 serious events per 10,000 vaccinees

(Intussusception)

Vaccine withdrawn

From the authors

BNT162b2 has a better safety profile than mRNA-1273 Moderna

Cardiac-related adverse effects, as peri- and myocarditis, are of particular concern because of possible serious complications

US vaccina advice

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/stay-up-to-date.html#children

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/stay-up-to-date.html

CDC recommends one updated (bivalent) booster dose:

• For everyone aged 5 years and older if it has been at least 2 months since your last dose.

• For children aged 6 months–4 years who completed the Moderna primary series and if it has been at least 2 months since their last dose.

UK vaccine advice

Who can get a COVID-19 vaccine

Everyone aged 5 (on or before 31 August 2022) and over can get a 1st and 2nd dose of the COVID-19 vaccine.

People aged 16 and over, and some children aged 12 to 15, can also get a booster dose.

New:

Video notes:

Investigating cause of excess deaths

In 1965, English statistician Sir Austin Bradford Hill

Causal relationships

Strength

The larger the association, the more likely that it is causal

Consistency, (reproducibility)

Consistent findings, different persons in different places

Specificity

No other likely explanation

Temporality

The effect has to occur after the cause (often with a delay)

Biological gradient, (dose response relationship)

Greater exposure should lead to greater incidence of the effect

(or indeed lower incident of effect)

Plausibility

A plausible mechanism between cause and effect

Coherence

Between epidemiological and laboratory findings

Experiment

Occasionally it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence

Analogy

Analogies or similarities between the observed association and any other associations

Reversibility

May work if there is no permanent damage

New video:

Description:

Excess deaths, different countries and different age groups

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics/latest-release

In 2022

144,650 deaths that occurred by 30 September

(and were registered by 30 November),

which is 19,986 (16.0%) more than the historical average

(compared to 2015-2019)

Same period

8,160 deaths due to COVID-19 that were certified by a doctor

Non covid excess deaths
= 11,826

Week ending 30 December 2022 (Week 52)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest

9,517 deaths were registered in England and Wales

(393 mentioned “novel coronavirus, COVID-19)

The number of deaths was above the five-year average

Private homes, 36.9% above, (684 excess deaths)

Hospitals, 14.8% above, (537 excess deaths)

Care homes 20.4% above, (371 excess deaths)

Other settings 0.2% above, (1 excess death)

Total excess deaths, week 52 = 1,593

Percentage change compared to 5-year average (2016 to 2019 and 2021) for week 52

20.1%

Week ending 23rd December England and Wales, (week 51)

All-cause deaths registered 14,530

(COVID-19 accounted for 429, 3.0%)

Number of deaths was above the five-year average

Private homes (37.5% above, 1,120 excess deaths)

Hospitals (18.8% above, 1,031 excess deaths)

Care homes (10.5% above; 282 excess deaths)

Other settings (7.0% above, 61 excess deaths) in Week 51 in England and Wales.

Total excess deaths, week 51 = 2,492

Excess deaths in all UK age groups

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

Data goes up to 18th November 2022

Investigating cause of excess deaths

In 1965, English statistician Sir Austin Bradford Hill

Causal relationships

Strength

The larger the association, the more likely that it is causal

Consistency, (reproducibility)

Consistent findings, different persons in different places

Specificity

No other likely explanation

Temporality

The effect has to occur after the cause (often with a delay)

Biological gradient, (dose response relationship)

Greater exposure should lead to greater incidence of the effect

(or indeed lower incident of effect)

Plausibility

A plausible mechanism between cause and effect

Coherence

Between epidemiological and laboratory findings

Experiment

Occasionally it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence

Analogy

Analogies or similarities between the observed association and any other associations

Reversibility

May work if there is no permanent damage

Very sharp increase in total deaths just 3 years later. Where’s the government investigation?

2022

2019:

With numbers like these, only the gullible and deeply misinformed would think the pandemic is “over”.

New video:

Description:

Excess deaths, (2016 to 2019, and 2021)

In November 2022

47,611 deaths registered in England

4,083 deaths (9.4%) above the November five-year average

Coronavirus (COVID-19) (2.6% of all deaths)

W / E 23rd December (England and Wales

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest

Number of deaths was above the five-year average

Private homes
(37.5% above, 1,120 excess deaths)

Hospitals
(18.8% above, 1,031 excess deaths)

Care homes
(10.5% above; 282 excess deaths)

Other settings
(7.0% above, 61 excess deaths)

Zoe data

https://health-study.joinzoe.com

Prevalence, One in 21

ONS prevalence data

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

4.52% in England (1 in 20 people)

5.70% in Wales (1 in 18 people)

6.43% in Northern Ireland (1 in 16 people)

4.05% in Scotland (1 in 25 people)

And the real numbers are likely even higher.