Archive for the ‘Health’ Category
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England and Wales Deaths in December 11.2% Higher in 2022 Than Pre-COVID-19 Levels
Week 48 deaths:
Data: 2022 deaths as OpenDocument Format
New figures released today. 11,307 deaths in England and Wales for the last week — far above the usual. For perspective, 10,164 were registered for the same week prior to COVID-19 (2015-2019 average).
That’s an increase of 1,143 in about half a decade, representing 11.2% (relative) increase.
The new cluster in the low-risk percentile are younger people. In other words, more young people die.
‘Long COVID’ Impacting Several Millions of Brits
Published hours ago:
Description:
Self reported long covid
2.2 million (3.4% of the population)
Of those, as of 6 November 2022
87% more than 12 weeks
55% at least one year
27% at least two years
Symptoms
Fatigue 70%
Difficulty concentrating 48%
Shortness of breath 46%
Muscle ache 45%
Adversely affected the day-to-day activities, 1.6 million (75% of self-reported long COVIDs)
Self-reported long COVID more common
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/infections
Aged 35 to 69 years
Females
Living in more deprived areas
Working in social care
Another activity-limiting condition or disability?
People not working and not looking for work
i.e.
If you are working or actively looking for work you are less likely to report long covid
Proportions of LC
Vaccination status not given
Cumulative change in number of people aged 16 to 64 years inactive because of long-term sickness
Long COVID is not the main factor
Working-age adults
(Economically inactive because of long-term sickness)
Has been rising since 2019
363,000 more since start of pandemic
ONS reasons
NHS waiting times
Long-term sick
other health problems or disabilities
(may include LC)
April to June 2022
97,000 higher than the same period in 2019
(a 41% increase)
Excess deaths, (ending 2 December 2022)
372 deaths involving COVID-19 registered in the UK
2.9% of all deaths
(400 in the previous week)
A total of 12,866 UK deaths
5.1% above the five-year average
Zoe symptoms as of this week (13th December)
Sore throat, 64%
Runny nose, 57%
Blocked nose, 57%
Headache, 54%
Sneezing, 53%
Cough, no phlegm 53%
Cough with phlegm, 44%
Hoarse, 40%
Muscle pains / aches 24%
Altered smell, 20%
Swollen neck glands, 19%
Dizzy, light headed, 19%
Fatigue, 17%
Loss of smell, 17%
Sore eyes, 17%
Shortness of breath, 15%
Chest pain / tightness, 15%
Earache, 15%
Chills or shivers, 13%
Wheezing, 11%
Full Zoe report
http://email.mg.joinzoe.com/c/eJwdjs1uwyAQhJ_G3IKWHxs4cOil70HYNSbC3gicVurT14k0h5Fm5tNQVIuDoGY_g8DoCcijqFGD1korA045HWTOblnX1ZBWzqClycJe5IPr8cckM-9iixnQAZpFeWcskrfg9WpCoNnONlglWtzO8zkm8zXp70uZj8Htmjd-oSzMpX1YVzRO7qnQ5e6dfwf1T_2n4u35ureab5jOJEWPD96OeuTUWx3tfavsqbY35R-jWUPB
Births in England and Wales Down 5.2% Since Pre-Pandemic Years, Baby Deaths Down by a Similar Level
Data for this article: Baby deaths [Open Document Format]
Hypothesis: babies born into the pandemic are equally likely to survive (but caveats exist, e.g. maybe only more affluent families still have kids and medical treatments continue to improve)
So I’ve decided to check how the pandemic affects babies, specifically people under the age of 1 in England and Wales, for which we have complete data from ONS.
Based on the available data, 2,190 children under the age of 1 died so far this year, compared to 2,322 (132 more) in 2019. Those kids might be born a year earlier, i.e. in 2021 and in 2018.
Births in 2018 were 5.2% higher than in 2021, based on the official figures. 657,076 – 624,828 = 32,248 (fewer births in 2021 than in 2018), representing a big decrease.
Old data can be found here (births in England and Wales). It says: “There were 679,106 live births in England and Wales in 2017, a decrease of 2.5% from 2016 and the lowest number of live births since 2006.”
In 2018 there was a decrease. To quote: “There were 657,076 live births in England and Wales in 2018, a decrease of 3.2% since 2017 and a 9.9% decrease since the most recent peak in 2012.”
More recent data comes from this page (also see “Births by parents’ country of birth, England and Wales: 2021″). To quote: “There were 624,828 live births in England and Wales in 2021, an increase of 1.8% from 613,936 in 2020, but still below the 2019 figure (640,370); 2021 remains in line with the long-term trend of decreasing live births seen before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.”
It also says: “There were 2,597 stillbirths in 2021, an increase of 226 from 2020; this is similar to the 2,522 stillbirths in 2019. [..]. The stillbirth rate in 2021 increased to 4.1 stillbirths per 1,000 total births compared with 3.8 in 2020; this is also higher than the rate seen before the coronavirus pandemic in 2019 (3.9).”
Based on the available data, the number of babies dying in their first year was similar in the past year to what it was before the COVID-19 outbreak. If adjusted to the total number of births, compensating for disparity and assessing the ratio.
It may be safe to conclude that babies’ mortality rate (at least here) did not worsen in recent years, unlike all the other age groups.
Pfizer Lied About Efficacy of the Vaccines It Was Selling, China Takes Different Approach
Just published: Chinese vaccine comparisons
Description:
Chinese and Western vaccines compared
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-63855508
Big changes, all of a sudden
Live with the virus
Vice-premier, Sun Chunlan
China entering a new situation
Virus ability to cause disease weakening
Lifting most severe Covid policies
End of quarantine camps
People can isolate at home
No more family separations
Close contacts not taken to camps
Strict ban on blocking fire exits
No need to show tests for venues
Less rules on internal travel
Lateral flow tests to replace PCR tests in most areas
Lockdowns continue in smaller more targeted areas
Foreign travel soon
Cases, 30,000 +
Now
Everyone will be exposed
Will the medical system will be overwhelmed?
National Health Commission
All localities, focus on improving the vaccination rate of people aged 60-79,
accelerating the vaccination rate of people aged 80 and above,
and making special arrangements
Prof Ivan Hung, Hong Kong University
The main way for China to exit Covid with the least damage is via vaccination and three doses of vaccination is a must
Hopefully before Chinese New Year (January 22) Rabbit
Sinopharm
Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE)
https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-sinopharm-covid-19-vaccine-what-you-need-to-know
The vaccine is safe and effective for all individuals aged 18 and above.
Individuals may choose to delay vaccination for 3 months following the infection.
An inactivated vaccine with adjuvant
(that is routinely used in many other vaccines)
with a documented good safety profile, including in pregnant women.
Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and efficacy against hospitalization 79%
Does it prevent infection and transmission?
No substantive data
Does it work against new variants of SARS-
CoV-2 virus?SAGE currently recommends using this vaccine
Not yet been evaluated in the context of circulation of widespread variants of concern.
How does this vaccine compare to other vaccines already in use?
We cannot compare the vaccines head-to-head,
(different approaches taken in designing the respective studies)
but overall, all of the vaccines that have achieved WHO Emergency Use Listing,
are highly effective in preventing severe disease and hospitalization due to COVID-19.
Comparison with Western vaccines
Pfizer original paper
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577
https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577/suppl_file/nejmoa2034577_appendix.pdf
BNT162b2 was 95% effective in preventing Covid-19
Later analysis from
Efficacy and effectiveness of covid-19 vaccine – absolute vs. relative risk reduction
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9115787/
AAR, Pfizer, during the trial period,
0.84%
AAR
https://patient.info/news-and-features/calculating-absolute-risk-and-relative-risk
Absolute risk of a disease is your risk of developing the disease over a time period.
Five to six-months update, AAR
BNT162b2 3.7%
mRNA1273 (Moderna-NIH) 4.9%
It’s Already December and the British Government Has Decided to Barely Test People for COVID-19
Is the ‘end’ of COVID-19 a political decision, coordinated partly from above by defunding and neglect?
“People tested positive in England,” according to this evening’s numbers (released minutes ago), are numbered at 23,216 for the past week.
Does anyone seriously think so few contracted COVID-19? No. Many of us still know people who not only get infected but also reinfected.
Looking at the lab-based COVID-19 tests conducted (England), here is the number of tests per day:
07-12-2022 7,646
06-12-2022 8,129
05-12-2022 1,758
04-12-2022 3,367
03-12-2022 7,288
02-12-2022 5,034
01-12-2022 10,688
30-11-2022 21,370
29-11-2022 24,782
28-11-2022 21,821
27-11-2022 15,866
26-11-2022 17,892
25-11-2022 19,099
24-11-2022 22,500
23-11-2022 25,377
22-11-2022 25,293
21-11-2022 24,212
20-11-2022 16,051
19-11-2022 17,128
18-11-2022 22,481
17-11-2022 22,791
16-11-2022 25,746
15-11-2022 28,498
14-11-2022 24,824
13-11-2022 15,351
12-11-2022 19,082
11-11-2022 22,427
10-11-2022 24,516
09-11-2022 26,689
08-11-2022 29,500
07-11-2022 25,162
06-11-2022 15,507
05-11-2022 19,275
04-11-2022 25,679
03-11-2022 28,210
02-11-2022 27,450
01-11-2022 31,824
31-10-2022 24,778
30-10-2022 16,980
29-10-2022 22,094
28-10-2022 27,261
27-10-2022 29,453
26-10-2022 32,207
25-10-2022 35,643
24-10-2022 26,232
23-10-2022 20,906
22-10-2022 25,517
21-10-2022 30,388
20-10-2022 34,067
19-10-2022 40,429
18-10-2022 41,373
17-10-2022 30,450
16-10-2022 22,627
15-10-2022 29,966
14-10-2022 33,088
13-10-2022 35,169
Notice how it has fallen to like a quarter what it was just months month ago.
Compare to the first week of December 2021:
07-12-2021 553,722
06-12-2021 486,459
05-12-2021 476,058
04-12-2021 503,124
03-12-2021 585,529
02-12-2021 555,481
01-12-2021 556,367
And the first week of December 2022:
07-12-2020 188,281
06-12-2020 209,309
05-12-2020 265,016
04-12-2020 278,014
03-12-2020 288,355
02-12-2020 262,352
01-12-2020 244,789
Lies, damn lies, and statistics. COVID-19 hasn’t gone away in any meaningful way. We just stopped testing and there’s no prospect of eradication anymore. Excess deaths across England remain very high.
Other testing methods are also down considerably.
In Week 47 (ONS Released the Full Provisional Figures Moments Ago), Adults Aged 15-44 Saw 27% Rise in Deaths (2022 Compared to 2019)
Latest numbers here.
In week 47 of 2019, 283 adults aged 15-44 died in England and Wales.
In week 47 of 2022, 359 adults aged 15-44 died in England and Wales.
359 – 283 = 76 or 27% higher in 2022 than in 2019.