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Sharp Increase in England-Wales Deaths
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THE video above explains my couple of blog posts prepared about COVID-19 today [1, 2]. It explains that deaths have sharply increased this year it’s not clear how to identify/explain the cause, only that there is a cause or causes.

UST to be clear, I wish to state upfront this post does not blame vaccines for anything. There are many different factors to consider, but the net effect is that a lot more people are dying than before. It’s like 10 times higher than the rate of population growth.

We’ve only just published (as ODF) sets of mortality figures from England and Wales. Here they are.

• Data for 2022
• Data for 2020
• Data for 2019

I’ve done some further analysis of the numbers, which I will revisit as more (newer) data comes in. Some will become available tomorrow, as noted before (“England and Wales Summertime Deaths in 2020 versus 2022 (Spoiler: About 1,500 More Deaths Registered Per Week in 2022″).

It’s widely known and generally recognised that COVID-19 mostly kills very old people, irrespective of gender and race (those factors play a role, but age is the most common factor).

So how many people died before and after COVID-19 infections, vaccinations, and lock-downs?

I’ve studied the data carefully and found that in January till mid September, for ages 15-44, the total deaths were:

10,404 in 2019
11,384 in 2022

For ages 45-64: (much higher risk group)

45,296 in 2019
49,424 in 2022

The cutoff I’ve chosen for September is me being GENEROUS in FAVOUR of 2022 (i.e. making the numbers in 2022 look smaller for the analogous period), so assuming the numbers published were daily rather than weekly it would be about 10% difference for both age ranges.

These numbers are very big and death is not “subjective”, so the statistical dataset is of high quality.

I’ve intentionally left out 2020 and 2021 because of massive spikes in deaths. If the number of deaths is about 10% higher after 2021 (compared to before 2020) and government statistics say those deaths in 20222 are barely due to COVID-19, then something else is killing a lot more working age adults than before. To say that COVID-19 is no longer a pandemic is truly insane. We’ve not solved the problem. 6,000 more people cannot reach their pension age (and that’s just for January-September). So it’s not only an “old people’s problem”.

2020

June 5 onwards (deaths per week):
10,709
9,976
9,339
8,979
9,140
8,690
8,823
8,891
8,946
8,945
9,392
9,631
9,032
7,739
9,811
9,523 (September 18, 2020)

2022

June 10 onwards (deaths per week):
11,742
10,844
10,836
10,357
10,232
10,515
10,978
11,013
10,698
10,355
10,982
10,942
8,868
10,753
10,673 (September 16, 2022)

Possible explanations:

• People’s health deteriorated after 2020 (whether due to infection or treatment)
• The first wave of COVID-19 killed a lot of elderly and vulnerable people, leaving a lot fewer for summer (or fewer left to die later in the year)
• The first lock-down (March 2020) isolated vulnerable people from the flu and other diseases

To deal with the 3 possibilities above, let’s compare to summer of 2019 (before the breakout in Wuhan):

June 7 onwards: (2019)
10,140
9,445
9,458
9,511
9,062
9,179
9,080
9,112
9,271
9,122
9,093
8,994
8,242
9,695
9,513
9,440 (September 20, 2019)

These numbers seem a lot like 2020, not 2022. This strengthens the theory of people being more prone to die after 2021.

More inquiry and research are needed here. With the datasets below, comparison by age groups is possible too. There may be other factors at play, but surely some universities would be discouraged from exploring some strands of thought.

Reference: ONS

Files as ODF (Open Document Format):

• Data for 2022
• Data for 2020
• Data for 2019

This still-updated page says “Next release: 11 October 2022″ (that’s tomorrow), so let’s see how many died in September 2022 compared to prior Septembers (we’ll soon have all the figures for September 2022).

Folks would struggle give us the “but the lockdowns put people down” canard; in 2020 we had lockdowns and in 2022 no lockdowns. Deaths are far higher this year, if one removes the impact of the first COVID wave. We’re talking about ~6,000 more people dying each month.

More than 10 times the casualties (fatalities) of COVID-19 are — or were — living as disabled people

References:

• Long COVID or Post-COVID Conditions
• Covid-19: Two million people in the UK are estimated to be experiencing long covid, says ONS

As noted earlier today [1, 2], getting COVID-19 data on — or from — Scotland has gotten a lot harder. The above COVID-19 statistical report (“This weekly release by Public Health Scotland presents data on COVID-19 across NHS Scotland.”) says some interesting things. The first main point is: “In Scotland, in the week ending 20 September 2022, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 117,100 (95% credible interval: 93,600 to 143,500), equating to 2.22% of the population, or around 1 in 45 people…”

The next point after that says: “In the week ending 02 October 2022, there were on average 744 patients in hospital with COVID-19, a 12.0% increase from the previous week ending 25 September 2022 (664)…”

And there’s also a ~50% leap in ICU ‘escalation’ (many cannot survive): “In the week ending 02 October 2022 there were 19 new admissions to Intensive Care Units (ICUs) with a laboratory confirmed test of COVID-19, an increase of 8 from the previous week (25 September 2022)…”

It then says: “The response to the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have a wider impact on health and care as a result of the lockdown, economic pressures and changes to health services.”

This seems like an excuse for increased deaths, but here is the summary and full report. They published the data in proprietary Microsoft formats, so here it is in ODF.

August 2022 was the last month Scotland fully reported COVID-19 deaths. Does this data policy make any sense based on the numbers below?

August 2022:

COVID-19 deaths per day or daily deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate by date of death

31-08-2022 11
30-08-2022 3
29-08-2022 3
28-08-2022 6
27-08-2022 3
26-08-2022 6
25-08-2022 3
24-08-2022 6
23-08-2022 5
22-08-2022 4
21-08-2022 6
20-08-2022 5
19-08-2022 10
18-08-2022 5
17-08-2022 6
16-08-2022 4
15-08-2022 10
14-08-2022 12
13-08-2022 3
12-08-2022 7
11-08-2022 9
10-08-2022 3
09-08-2022 10
08-08-2022 15
07-08-2022 8
06-08-2022 7
05-08-2022 10
04-08-2022 9
03-08-2022 7
02-08-2022 10
01-08-2022 7

August 2021:

31-08-2021 10
30-08-2021 5
29-08-2021 8
28-08-2021 9
27-08-2021 11
26-08-2021 7
25-08-2021 7
24-08-2021 4
23-08-2021 9
22-08-2021 6
21-08-2021 5
20-08-2021 8
19-08-2021 7
18-08-2021 7
17-08-2021 4
16-08-2021 4
15-08-2021 7
14-08-2021 8
13-08-2021 10
12-08-2021 3
11-08-2021 5
10-08-2021 5
09-08-2021 6
08-08-2021 7
07-08-2021 9
06-08-2021 7
05-08-2021 7
04-08-2021 7
03-08-2021 3
02-08-2021 7
01-08-2021 12

August 2020:

31-08-2020 0
30-08-2020 1
29-08-2020 0
28-08-2020 1
27-08-2020 1
26-08-2020 1
25-08-2020 1
24-08-2020 0
23-08-2020 1
22-08-2020 1
21-08-2020 0
20-08-2020 0
19-08-2020 2
18-08-2020 1
17-08-2020 1
16-08-2020 1
15-08-2020 1
14-08-2020 0
13-08-2020 1
12-08-2020 0
11-08-2020 0
10-08-2020 0
09-08-2020 0
08-08-2020 0
07-08-2020 0
06-08-2020 1
05-08-2020 2
04-08-2020 1
03-08-2020 1
02-08-2020 0
01-08-2020 0

Does Scotland hope to ‘solve’ or end the pandemic by merely not reporting its effects anymore?

COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital in Scotland, per day:

August 2022

31-08-2022 58
30-08-2022 53
29-08-2022 63
28-08-2022 50
27-08-2022 40
26-08-2022 49
25-08-2022 74
24-08-2022 71
23-08-2022 67
22-08-2022 69
21-08-2022 52
20-08-2022 35
19-08-2022 74
18-08-2022 57
17-08-2022 58
16-08-2022 67
15-08-2022 91
14-08-2022 54
13-08-2022 56
12-08-2022 94
11-08-2022 77
10-08-2022 89
09-08-2022 88
08-08-2022 85
07-08-2022 62
06-08-2022 47
05-08-2022 75
04-08-2022 87
03-08-2022 94
02-08-2022 107
01-08-2022 108

August 2021 (not long after ‘freedom day’, i.e. no restrictions)

31-08-2021 133
30-08-2021 107
29-08-2021 93
28-08-2021 103
27-08-2021 108
26-08-2021 105
25-08-2021 107
24-08-2021 101
23-08-2021 74
22-08-2021 56
21-08-2021 51
20-08-2021 67
19-08-2021 63
18-08-2021 62
17-08-2021 58
16-08-2021 32
15-08-2021 30
14-08-2021 44
13-08-2021 41
12-08-2021 40
11-08-2021 42
10-08-2021 71
09-08-2021 39
08-08-2021 38
07-08-2021 41
06-08-2021 56
05-08-2021 66
04-08-2021 38
03-08-2021 49
02-08-2021 51
01-08-2021 37

August 2020

31-08-2020 4
30-08-2020 3
29-08-2020 4
28-08-2020 6
27-08-2020 9
26-08-2020 9
25-08-2020 8
24-08-2020 8
23-08-2020 1
22-08-2020 6
21-08-2020 4
20-08-2020 8
19-08-2020 4
18-08-2020 3
17-08-2020 5
16-08-2020 2
15-08-2020 7
14-08-2020 4
13-08-2020 2
12-08-2020 2
11-08-2020 2
10-08-2020 5
09-08-2020 0
08-08-2020 2
07-08-2020 4
06-08-2020 0
05-08-2020 3
04-08-2020 1
03-08-2020 3
02-08-2020 0
01-08-2020 2

Seems like masks and distancing lowered the COVID-induced hospital visits to almost 0.