ORISNARO says we now have “freedom”; freedom of what kind? The freedom to spread a virus? I want the freedom to not catch this virus. I want safety from people who think they’re invulnerable and therefore free to engage in “mass infection”. Today we have no option but to have a guest in the house — an Openreach technician [1, 2, 3]. Can I have the freedom to not presume risk? There’s a big difference between 55 cases a day, 550 cases a day, and 55,000 cases a day. At the moment we’re just expected to assume that many people around us are carriers and there’s nothing to be done about it. There’s no intention whatsoever to contain or reduce the spread. What kind of “freedom” is that?

As a result of those insane policies of Borisnaro and his chums we’ve decided to embrace more of a ‘bunker mode’ at home, in effect enjoying less freedom than ever before. No more gym, only particular stores for food (ones with very few people inside, sometimes tellers alone).

So now, in July 2021, I can honestly say that when my government says “Freedom” it means the exact opposite of that.

This is the same government (and person) that called racism/xenophobia “independence”. Yes, I’m talking about brexit. With the mass infection we have in the UK it seems like Europe is the beneficiary of brexit.

Original here

As the third wave of the pandemic takes hold across England, the UK Government plans to further re-open the nation. Implicit in this decision is the acceptance that infections will surge, but that this does not matter because vaccines have “broken the link between infection and mortality”¹.

On July 19, 2021—branded as Freedom Day—almost all restrictions are set to end. We believe this decision is dangerous and premature.
An end to the pandemic through population immunity requires enough of the population to be immune to prevent exponential growth of SARS-CoV-2. Population immunity is unlikely to be achieved without much higher levels of vaccination than can be reasonably expected by July 19, 2021. Proportionate mitigations will be needed to avoid hundreds of thousands of new infections, until many more are vaccinated. Nevertheless, the UK Government’s intention to ease restrictions from July 19, 2021, means that immunity will be achieved by vaccination for some people but by natural infection for others (predominantly the young). The UK Health Secretary has stated that daily cases could reach 100,000 per day over the summer months of 2021.²

The link between infection and death might have been weakened, but it has not been broken, and infection can still cause substantial morbidity in both acute and long-term illness. We have previously pointed to the dangers of relying on immunity by natural infection,³ and we have five main concerns with the UK Government’s plan to lift all restrictions at this stage of the pandemic.

First, unmitigated transmission will disproportionately affect unvaccinated children and young people who have already suffered greatly. Official UK Government data show that as of July 4, 2021, 51% of the total UK population have been fully vaccinated and 68% have been partially vaccinated. Even assuming that approximately 20% of unvaccinated people are protected by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, this still leaves more than 17 million people with no protection against COVID-19. Given this, and the high transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, exponential growth will probably continue until millions more people are infected, leaving hundreds of thousands of people with long-term illness and disability.⁴

This strategy risks creating a generation left with chronic health problems and disability, the personal and economic impacts of which might be felt for decades to come.

Second, high rates of transmission in schools and in children will lead to significant educational disruption, a problem not addressed by abandoning isolation of exposed children (which is done on the basis of imperfect daily rapid tests).⁵ The root cause of educational disruption is transmission, not isolation. Strict mitigations in schools alongside measures to keep community transmission low and eventual vaccination of children will ensure children can remain in schools safely.^6,7,8 This is all the more important for clinically and socially vulnerable children. Allowing transmission to continue over the summer will create a reservoir of infection, which will probably accelerate spread when schools and universities re-open in autumn.

Third, preliminary modelling data⁹ suggest the government’s strategy provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants. This would place all at risk, including those already vaccinated, within the UK and globally. While vaccines can be updated, this requires time and resources, leaving many exposed in the interim. Spread of potentially more transmissible escape variants would disproportionately affect the most disadvantaged in our country and other countries with poor access to vaccines.

Fourth, this strategy will have a significant impact on health services and exhausted health-care staff who have not yet recovered from previous infection waves. The link between cases and hospital admissions has not been broken, and rising case numbers will inevitably lead to increased hospital admissions, applying further pressure at a time when millions of people are waiting for medical procedures and routine care.
Fifth, as deprived communities are more exposed to and more at risk from COVID-19, these policies will continue to disproportionately affect the most vulnerable and marginalised, deepening inequalities.

In light of these grave risks, and given that vaccination offers the prospect of quickly reaching the same goal of population immunity without incurring them, we consider any strategy that tolerates high levels of infection to be both unethical and illogical. The UK Government must reconsider its current strategy and take urgent steps to protect the public, including children. We believe the government is embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment, and we call on it to pause plans to abandon mitigations on July 19, 2021.

Instead, the government should delay complete re-opening until everyone, including adolescents, have been offered vaccination and uptake is high, and until mitigation measures, especially adequate ventilation (through investment in CO2 monitors and air filtration devices) and spacing (eg, by reducing class sizes), are in place in schools. Until then, public health measures must include those called for by WHO (universal mask wearing in indoor spaces, even for those vaccinated), the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (ventilation and air filtration), and Independent SAGE (effective border quarantine; test, trace isolate, and support). This will ensure that everyone is protected and make it much less likely that we will need further restrictions or lockdowns in the autumn.

REFERENCES
1. Morton B. Covid: Boris Johnson upbeat about easing lockdown in England on 19 July. BBC News, July 4, 2021.

2. Wright K. Covid: Self-isolation to be scrapped for double-jabbed and children in England. BBC News, July 6, 2021

3. Alwan NA, Burgess RA, Ashworth S, et al. Scientific consensus on the COVID-19 pandemic: we need to act now. Lancet 2020; 396(10260): e71-e2.

4. ONS. Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK: 1 July 2021, 2021.

5. Gurdasani D. ZH, Greenhalgh T, Roberts A, Yates K, Haque Z, Michie S, McKee M, Pagel C, Hyde Z, Bassani DG, West R, Reicher S, Deeks J. Daily contact testing trials in schools are unethical and extending them to include the delta variant puts everyone at risk. BMJ Opinion 2021.

6. Gurdasani D, Alwan NA, Greenhalgh T, et al. School reopening without robust COVID-19 mitigation risks accelerating the pandemic. Lancet 2021; 397(10280): 1177-8.

7. Lessler J, Grabowski MK, Grantz KH, et al. Household COVID-19 risk and in-person schooling. Science 2021.

8. The ABC Science Collaborative Final Report for NC School Districts and Charters in Plan A, 2021.

9. Gog JR HE, Danon L, Thompson R. Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model. MedRxiv 2021.

We’ve found our own ‘Bolsonaro’, Borisnaro Johnson

EFORE even starting, an important disclaimer: I am a vaccine proponent, but I also acknowledge the limitations. Moreover, vaccines aren’t an excuse for spreading a lethal specimen to millions of people; survivors can suffer long-term harms. Eradication should be the real goal, or at least containment of the threat/hazard.

Another clarification: This post won’t be dealing with “the economy” and politics associated with organisation of wealth, labour etc. Not because those things are irrelevant but because I wish to focus on other aspects. Not the profiteering associated with abundant testing, patent/monopoly aspects etc.

I previously spoke about first-hand experiences of friends of mine who took the AstraZeneca jabs (or just one; some were harmed so badly by the first that they chose not to get the second). All of them, bar one (female, about 34 years old), say they regret taking the jab because of severe or permanent damage caused. I’m not kidding and I don’t mean to scare people; those are the stories of people I’ve known for a very long time and they’re not lying. My friend who’s a professor in a medical field told me yesterday that his swollen knee (he has struggled to walk for a while) was definitely the result of the jab and professionals/specialists he met told him the same; they saw a surge in such cases after the vaccination. It inflames the already-sensitive tissue. I can say with sincerity that every friend of mine who took it got side effects, in one case not severe enough to cause regret. Nevertheless, there are still risks associated with AstraZeneca’s products and efficacy will vary based upon mutations/variations, genetics, among other factors. Masking and social distancing are good for those who can afford it, depending on their jobs and lifestyles. Those can change and adapt sometimes. We need to at least consider the possibility. My wife and I stopped going to the gym. We exercise outdoors and at home instead. Depending on the weather/season…

Vaccine scepticism and hesitancy, no matter the context, are nowadays all being caricatured/stigmatised as “anti-vaxx”, a rejection of science, “conspiracy theory” and so on. That’s putting aside ethical issues associated with patents of AstraZeneca. Again, not the subject of this post (it merits a separate discussion). There are also business aspects that deserve rejection; a patent waiver is well overdue.

There’s no doubt that taking a vaccine — almost irrespective of whose — will improve one’s chances of surviving COVID-19. My friend told me that had the government taken DNA samples from millions of people before the pandemic and then analysed those statistically, they’d know a lot better whose genetics would likely be more vulnerable to this virus and should be vaccinated as a matter of utmost urgency.

With new numbers in, of of 4PM yesterday, another ~55,000 new COVID-19 cases were added to the tally. In one day! Deaths are up 50% in one week, obviously with a ‘delayed effect’ or correspondence between cases and deaths (people take a few weeks to die once they contract the thing; they fight back for a while). The media and Borisnaro Johnson don’t want to tell us that, but we’re doing vastly worse than last summer. What do the medical professionals say? Here’s a new article: “1,200+ Scientists Denounce Boris Johnson’s Plan to End UK Covid Restrictions”

I was a bit angry, not optimistic, to see what I saw yesterday. There’s a heatwave, so more people go outdoors and reject face covers. People here have quit distancing and few are wearing masks (you have to dodge people as they don’t respect distance). It probably won’t be long before we have a quarter million new COVID-19 cases per day and our blowhard ‘Bolsonaro’ (Borisnaro Johnson) just says nonchalantly (surrounded by flames): “THIS IS FINE!”

They don’t find this alarming and they plan to open everything, putting at risk those who choose the freedom not to get infected.

What’s generally happening is, some people listen to our totally reckless government instead of using common sense.

It’s past 3AM here and the people across the street from us have loud parties. No isolation and no masks. This is the lessons taught by Borisnaro Johnson, our reckless superspreader, who basically wants people to think that even a million cases a day would not be a cause for concern. This sort of insane approach was tried elsewhere already… and we know what happened as a result. I hold our government fully accountable for all the superspreaders I saw yesterday in town, including the ones across the road having a party right now. There are many more parties to come next week. Will the rest of us be their ‘collateral damage’?

Two years ago we acted similarly and we know what happened months later. Then came ‘Brexit’ for no net benefit other than a shallow sense of nationalism. And now? Now we’re supposed to think that winning against a bunch of football teams is more important than defeating a virus that paralyses our economy. Forcibly reopening everything like there’s no tomorrow is economic suicide for temporary and short-term gains.

My advice to people is, do get vaccinated if your job requires meeting many people; otherwise, isolate as much as is feasible. Generally speaking, we’re nowhere near defeating this pandemic. We’re only pretending here in the UK; wait a few more weeks to see hundreds of deaths per day; wait until winter and we’ll be back to over a thousand casualties a day. “THIS IS FINE!”

As a side note, even if corporate media uses numbers like “90%” for vaccination rates remember that only 35,732,297 people (out of almost 70 million in total) got two shots; some never intend to get a second one.

DAY BEFORE the Euro 2020 final against Italy I wrote about the wrong message the match’s high attendance rate was sending, seeing that citizens were denied access to essential services while Tories packed up (almost) an entire large stadium. The contradiction was just astounding and it’ll vertebrate for years to come. It was a policy choice. A misguided one. Compared to stadium capacity/attendance in Italy (Ukraine match) with distancing and masks.

At this point we must therefore assume that our government is reckless, incompetent, nihilist, and maybe even intentionally malicious. You cannot trust anything it says about COVID-19; and what I mean by that isn’t that it hypes it all up but the exact opposite. It’s downplaying an ongoing problem. A few hours ago, or at around 5PM, today’s (or Sunday’s) figures were released, less than a day after we had lost the Euro 2020 final (now we lose the battle to contain this virus).

Almost 35k new cases were confirmed across the UK (very high, especially for a Sunday!) and deaths/hospitalisations rose about 60% in one week. This past week alone! But our government is acting all ‘cool’ about it. As if given mass vaccination we’ll all be fine (this is still partly experimental; with no strong evidence to back most of it, not at this scale).

We seem to be governed by monarchs. Kim Yong Un would rather say nothing about North Korea’s COVID-19 situation/handling (one form of denial), whereas our foolish Pry Minister (Henry VIII) pretends to be a COVID-19 expert because his foolishness caused him to contract it. Now he’s willing to see lots of otherwise-preventable deaths and the spread of this plague doesn’t bother him when ignorance helps distract the ‘peasantry’ with football.

As I said last month, ignore our government’s advice. Stay home (we had done this a month earlier), avoid outside interactions if possible, wear masks when shopping for food, and assume this thing will last for at least another year. That’s not what everybody wants to hear, but realistic expectations don’t hurt.

It’s kind of sad when one’s government becomes the science denier and the general population needs to educate a business-centric (greedy) regime that doesn’t think ahead.

Filling up streets and even a densely-populated stadium at this time is a really awful idea

S I noted the other day, amid COVID-19 surge we’re meant to think that winning Euro 2020 is more important than winning against the virus. I went to town (Manchester) thrice this past week, only to see few people wearing masks and many who don’t respect people’s space with appropriate distancing. Here in Manchester, especially the centre of town, the number of cases is very high. We’re talking about more than one in a hundred. Not even counting recoveries, people who are not symptomatic etc.

Later today there’s a final in Wembley (again Wembley, not the capital of English football), this time the big chance (first in 55 years) to play the Euro final and maybe even win the whole tournament.

Our government is well aware of the coming COVID-19 crisis and likely imminent lock-downs/circuit-breakers, but to intoxicate the public with nationalism and a sentiment of national pride things are being opened up prematurely and the public is told that being reckless is OK. No need for masks, distancing etc. As if some dodgy firm administrating some (still experimental) doses will magically solve everything.

RMS, who is as pro-vaccination as I am, has just said: “Indonesia has been using Chinese vaccine, and it’s better than nothing, but a substantial number of medical personnel have caught Covid-19 anyway and cannot work.”

Our government keeps promoting a false sense of security; people are led to think or believe that vaccination alone — no matter whose — makes one invulnerable. This is clearly not the case. While vaccination certainly helps it does not mean that we can act as if COVID-19 is a thing of the past. Winning in football is nice and all, but packing up a stadium with fans sends the wrong message about public safety.

AST week I wrote about Wembley being half full in spite of a raging pandemic. Tomorrow we can expect Wembley to be in 2/3 capacity (about 60,000), but Manchester has large enough stadiums (almost as large as Wembley) with more decorated clubs (in the trophies sense) than any of the London clubs. Why is it that in 2021 every match still ‘defaults’ to London? Are Mancunians lesser people? Every now and then there’s an international match here, but clearly not often enough. In any case, those stadiums ought not be filled for the time being; with 37 new deaths today (linked to COVID-19) we’d be too arrogant to pretend it’s “all behind”…

Put the teams and the filming crew inside; that ought to be enough.

Manchester and the northwest badly hit

ust over 3 weeks ago we went into lock-down again (personal decision), seeing the non-linear growth in the number of COVID-19 cases, not to mention how the government had (re)opened lots of non-essential things — all this while denying access to very critical services. They forced us to take a phone of a friend to bypass their oppressive restrictions [1, 2].

Apparently you can meet ‘mates’ down the pub but cannot see a public official to get important work done! Worse yet, those public officials don’t even respond to you. They don’t speak to you and there’s nobody to talk to. Not even in E-mail or over the phone.

While vaccination does lower death rates, it comes at a hidden cost. And morever we cannot entirely rely on it as if it makes people invulnerable and thus we can just go back to “normal”.

If you value your safety and well-being, and if it’s possible for you to work from home, consider doing that for months to come. Don’t trust what our ‘Orange One’ says. We have a psychopathic and insane Pry Minister who keeps spreading false optimism about coronavirus (this misplaced optimism is bound to make things even worse!). Patients admitted with coronavirus are up 40% this past week alone, yet the lying psychopath pretends it’s all going to be “business as usual” next month. Deja vu (last summer).

We shall stay home. Our leaders are nihilistic (what sane person says “bodies [can] pile up high”?), far worse than incompetent and more sinister than merely misinformed.