Description:

Official UK government debate

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2022-10-24/debates/FF880636-BC3B-4BDB-A5E0-D6D4B82B2888/Covid-19VaccinesSafety

Official UK Government YouTube channel, the debate in full for those interested

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfgGCgxGYkk

Sir Christopher Chope, MP for Christchurch

The new data:

Data pre-COVID/Wuhan virus:

Covid infection did not increase incidence of post-covid myocarditis or pericarditis.

The Incidence of Myocarditis and Pericarditis in Post COVID-19 Unvaccinated Patients-A Large Population-Based Study

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/

https://www.mdpi.com/journal/jcm

Myocarditis and pericarditis, post-acute cardiac sequelae of COVID-19 infection,

arising from adaptive immune responses.

? incidence

Retrospective cohort study

Study group, had infection

N = 196,992 adults after COVID-19 infection

(Clalit Health Services)

March 2020 to January 2021

Inpatient myocarditis and pericarditis diagnoses,

from day 10 after positive PCR

Israeli vaccination program initiated on 20 December 2020

Follow-up was censored on 28 February 2021

Control cohort, never infected

N = 590,976 adults,

with at least one negative PCR and no positive PCR

(age- and sex-matched)

Calculated backward from 15 December 2020

Results

Post-COVID-19 group

Nine post-COVID-19 patients developed myocarditis (0.0046%)

Eleven diagnosed with pericarditis (0.0056%)

Control group, never covid infected

27 developed myocarditis (0.0046%) P = 1

52 developed pericarditis (0.0088%) P = 0.17

Adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]

Myocarditis, male (aHR 4.42) regardless of previous COVID-19 infection

Pericarditis, (aHR 1.93)

Peripheral vascular disease, (aHR 4.20)

Follow up

Median, 4.1 months

Covid cohort, 700,040 person-months

Non covid cohort, 2,100,077 person-months

Conclusions

Post COVID-19 infection was not associated with myocarditis (aHR 1.08)

Post COVID-19 infection was not associated with pericarditis (aHR 0.53)

We did not observe an increased incidence of neither pericarditis nor myocarditis in adult patients recovering from COVID-19 infection.

Our data suggest that there is no increase in the incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in COVID-19 recovered patients,

compared to uninfected matched controls.

Description:

ONS, 1st November release, UK deaths, week ending 21 October 2022

13,463

15.7%

1,822 excess deaths

Deaths involving COVID-19, 5.5% of all UK deaths

https://www.bhf.org.uk/-/media/files/what-we-do/influencing-change/tipping-point-bhf-report.pdf?rev=089147572a2c4dd789746b5e6f4ba617&hash=F7141D4C13A10C6C089824892CA59CDE

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2022-10-24/debates/FF880636-BC3B-4BDB-A5E0-D6D4B82B2888/Covid-19VaccinesSafety

Mr. Andrew Bridgen MP (NW Leicestershire)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfgGCgxGYkk

Eurostat

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/demo_mexrt/default/table?lang=en

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:Map01_Excess_Mortality_2022_Aug.png

Latest from Dr. John Campbell:

Covid antibodies found in stored blood samples

Milan Institute for Tumour Diseases, Coronavirus antibodies, September, 2019

Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy (October 2021)

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33176598/

Full text version

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8529295/

Screening and Multiple Intervention on Lung Epidemics (SMILE

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03654105

There are no robust data, coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and spread, prepandemic period worldwide

We investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD)-specific antibodies

Blood samples of 959 asymptomatic individuals,

enrolled in a prospective lung cancer screening trial,

between September 2019 and March 2020

Plasma samples repository

Results

SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in,

111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals

All the patients were asymptomatic at the time of blood sample collection.

Actual timeframe

First positive test, 3rd September

September 2019 23/162 (14.2%)

October 2019 27/166 (16.3%)

Second week of February 2020, (more than 30%)

By the end of September, Lombardy, Veneto, Piedmont, Emilia Romagna, Liguria, Lazio, Campania, Friuli.

Official timeframe

End of December 2019, coronavirus 2 identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China

January 30th 2020 Italy’s first two cases,

(two tourists from China tested positive in Rome)

February 20, 2020 Lombardy, 38-year-old man, no history of travel

Authors

This study shows an unexpected very early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals

Several months before the first patient was identified

Finding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in asymptomatic people before the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy may reshape the history of pandemic.

Phenomena 1

Underestimation of prevalence

Swabs and serology, focused on symptomatic cases

Therefore, an underestimation of overall COVID-19 infections

(Selection bias)

Therefore overestimation of mortality rate

May 25 and July 15 (2020)

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence study, n = 64,660

Prevalence rate was 2.5%

Approximately 1.5 million, (many of whom were asymptomatic)

Estimate almost 5 times higher than official reports

Phenomena 2

Onset of the epidemic, likely to have preceded identification of the first case

November–December 2019

Doctors reporting, severe respiratory symptoms in elderly and frail,

with atypical bilateral bronchitis,

which was attributed to aggressive forms of seasonal influenza

Based on these findings, a prior unnoticed circulation of the virus among the Italian population could be hypothesized.

October 2019 to February 2020

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7428442/

Molecular analysis, PCR, 40 wastewater samples Milan/Lombardy, Turin/Piedmont, and Bologna/Emilia Romagna)

Presence of viral RNA,

December 18th in Milan and Turin

So, in which direction did the virus travel?

7th Military World Games

??????????

Commonly known as Wuhan 2019

October 18–27, 2019

Around 230,000 volunteers

9,308 athletes from 109 countries competing in 329 events

Released moments ago:

Description:

Deaths from cardiovascular disease show a significant excess

Epidemiologist Veena Raleigh, The King’s Fund

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/29/disastrous-legacy-left-lockdown-non-covid-excess-deaths-overtake/

Food writer dies aged 49

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/nov/02/julie-powell-food-writer-and-blogger-behind-julie-julia-dies-aged-49

Cardiac arrest caused by heart arrhythmia

Olivebridge, upstate New York, 26 October, 2022

Survived by her husband, brother and parents

Throughout October

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

An average of 1,564 extra deaths per week

Throughout 2020 it was 315

Throughout 2021 it was 1,322

24,440 non covid deaths since May, 2022

More on the proximal causes

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

23 March, 2020 (first UK lockdown)

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nation&areaName=England

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending21october2022

Deaths registered, UK, week ending 21 October 2022

13,463

15.7% above the five-year average = 1,822 excess deaths

1,379 in week up to 23 March, 2020

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/29/disastrous-legacy-left-lockdown-non-covid-excess-deaths-overtake/

All age groups

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

E.g. 0 to 24

Amitava Banerjee, clinical data science, consultant cardiologist, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London

We should never ever have had a pandemic preparedness team that did not consider the indirect and long-term effects.

We focussed on the direct effects of excess deaths from covid,

but from the beginning it’s likely the indirect effects will lead to more deaths,

and more morbidity and more economic impacts than Covid deaths itself

What I see is still a focus on the direct effects of Covid

Nobody who is in charge of the NHS, or any of the new health secretaries, are making any noises about it

The new data is for April to June:

2022

April 245,000 deaths
May 254,000 deaths
June 247,000 deaths
Total: 746,000

Compare to pre-pandemic:

2018

April 249,000 deaths
May 233,000 deaths
June 229,000 deaths
Total: 711,000

2017

April 232,000 deaths
May 230,000 deaths
June 219,000 deaths
Total: 681,000 (65,000 less than 5 years later, or to increase 10% in 5 years)

The data

Latest data (“Last Reviewed: October 26, 2022“)

2021 CDC data (latest original/archive)
2018 CDC data (2018-19 original/archive)
2017 CDC data (2017-18 original/archive)