Latest from Dr. John Campbell:

Covid antibodies found in stored blood samples

Milan Institute for Tumour Diseases, Coronavirus antibodies, September, 2019

Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy (October 2021)

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33176598/

Full text version

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8529295/

Screening and Multiple Intervention on Lung Epidemics (SMILE

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03654105

There are no robust data, coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and spread, prepandemic period worldwide

We investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD)-specific antibodies

Blood samples of 959 asymptomatic individuals,

enrolled in a prospective lung cancer screening trial,

between September 2019 and March 2020

Plasma samples repository

Results

SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in,

111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals

All the patients were asymptomatic at the time of blood sample collection.

Actual timeframe

First positive test, 3rd September

September 2019 23/162 (14.2%)

October 2019 27/166 (16.3%)

Second week of February 2020, (more than 30%)

By the end of September, Lombardy, Veneto, Piedmont, Emilia Romagna, Liguria, Lazio, Campania, Friuli.

Official timeframe

End of December 2019, coronavirus 2 identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China

January 30th 2020 Italy’s first two cases,

(two tourists from China tested positive in Rome)

February 20, 2020 Lombardy, 38-year-old man, no history of travel

Authors

This study shows an unexpected very early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals

Several months before the first patient was identified

Finding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in asymptomatic people before the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy may reshape the history of pandemic.

Phenomena 1

Underestimation of prevalence

Swabs and serology, focused on symptomatic cases

Therefore, an underestimation of overall COVID-19 infections

(Selection bias)

Therefore overestimation of mortality rate

May 25 and July 15 (2020)

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence study, n = 64,660

Prevalence rate was 2.5%

Approximately 1.5 million, (many of whom were asymptomatic)

Estimate almost 5 times higher than official reports

Phenomena 2

Onset of the epidemic, likely to have preceded identification of the first case

November–December 2019

Doctors reporting, severe respiratory symptoms in elderly and frail,

with atypical bilateral bronchitis,

which was attributed to aggressive forms of seasonal influenza

Based on these findings, a prior unnoticed circulation of the virus among the Italian population could be hypothesized.

October 2019 to February 2020

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7428442/

Molecular analysis, PCR, 40 wastewater samples Milan/Lombardy, Turin/Piedmont, and Bologna/Emilia Romagna)

Presence of viral RNA,

December 18th in Milan and Turin

So, in which direction did the virus travel?

7th Military World Games

??????????

Commonly known as Wuhan 2019

October 18–27, 2019

Around 230,000 volunteers

9,308 athletes from 109 countries competing in 329 events

Released moments ago:

Description:

Deaths from cardiovascular disease show a significant excess

Epidemiologist Veena Raleigh, The King’s Fund

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/29/disastrous-legacy-left-lockdown-non-covid-excess-deaths-overtake/

Food writer dies aged 49

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/nov/02/julie-powell-food-writer-and-blogger-behind-julie-julia-dies-aged-49

Cardiac arrest caused by heart arrhythmia

Olivebridge, upstate New York, 26 October, 2022

Survived by her husband, brother and parents

Throughout October

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

An average of 1,564 extra deaths per week

Throughout 2020 it was 315

Throughout 2021 it was 1,322

24,440 non covid deaths since May, 2022

More on the proximal causes

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

23 March, 2020 (first UK lockdown)

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nation&areaName=England

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending21october2022

Deaths registered, UK, week ending 21 October 2022

13,463

15.7% above the five-year average = 1,822 excess deaths

1,379 in week up to 23 March, 2020

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/29/disastrous-legacy-left-lockdown-non-covid-excess-deaths-overtake/

All age groups

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

E.g. 0 to 24

Amitava Banerjee, clinical data science, consultant cardiologist, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London

We should never ever have had a pandemic preparedness team that did not consider the indirect and long-term effects.

We focussed on the direct effects of excess deaths from covid,

but from the beginning it’s likely the indirect effects will lead to more deaths,

and more morbidity and more economic impacts than Covid deaths itself

What I see is still a focus on the direct effects of Covid

Nobody who is in charge of the NHS, or any of the new health secretaries, are making any noises about it

The new data is for April to June:

2022

April 245,000 deaths
May 254,000 deaths
June 247,000 deaths
Total: 746,000

Compare to pre-pandemic:

2018

April 249,000 deaths
May 233,000 deaths
June 229,000 deaths
Total: 711,000

2017

April 232,000 deaths
May 230,000 deaths
June 219,000 deaths
Total: 681,000 (65,000 less than 5 years later, or to increase 10% in 5 years)

The data

Latest data (“Last Reviewed: October 26, 2022“)

2021 CDC data (latest original/archive)
2018 CDC data (2018-19 original/archive)
2017 CDC data (2017-18 original/archive)

Released a few hours ago:

From the same authoritative source but for 2019 :

Analogous 2019 figures for the same week are a lot smaller.

Comparing 2022 to 2019:
Infant (under 1): 61 compared to 54
Kids (1-14): 6+9+6 (21) compared to 14
Adults (15-44): 18+22+38+58+83+124 (343) compared to 303
Older adults (45-64): 155+290+427+528 (1,400) compared to 1,154
Retired (65-74): 749+1,045 (1,794) compared to 1,628
75-84: 1,641+1,900 (3,541) compared to 2,920
Above 85: 2,153+2,625 (4,778) compared to 4,083

Also see (for the prior week, week 41): England and Wales Increase in Deaths by Age Group: 62% in Children, 12% in Teens, Almost 20% in Adults, and 16% in Old People

New data has just been published by ONS. It shows that things continue to get yet worse in terms of increases in mortality. It’s worse now than it was in prior weeks and deaths have increased nearly 23% for the week (compared to pre-pandemic levels).

The data sets were shared here before (we had made local copies), so here’s just a pair/couple of screenshots.

2022 deaths (totals):

Compare to pre-pandemic:

Link

Lower than previously thought

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand (16th March 2020)

Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

We assumed

Incubation period of 5.1 days

Infectious 12 hours before to 4.6 days after

R0=2.4

Non-uniform attack, applied to the GB population

Result in an IFR of 0.9%

with 4.4% of infections hospitalised

10.4 day stay

30% of hospitalised, ICU (50% death rate)

(not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality)

Age-stratified infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in the non-elderly informed from pre-vaccination national seroprevalence studies

Stanford California, Rome, Montreal

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.10.11.22280963v1

40 eligible national seroprevalence studies,

covering 38 countries with pre-vaccination seroprevalence data.

For 29 countries publicly available age-stratified COVID-19 death data,

and age-stratified seroprevalence information were available,

and were included in the primary analysis.

IFRs for 0 to 59 years

median IFR = 0.035%

(IQR, 0.013 – 0.056%)

Without accounting for seroreversion

(average time from seroconversion to seroreversion at 3-4 months)

IFRs for 0 to 69 years

IFR = 0.095%

0 to 19 years

IFR = 0.0003%

20 to 29 years

IFR = 0.003%

30 to 39 years

IFR = 0.011%

40-49 years

IFR = 0.035%

50-59 years

IFR = 0.129%

60-69 years

IFR = 0.501%

At a global level

Pre-vaccination IFR,

may have been as low as,

0 to 59 years = 0.03%

0 to 69 years = 0.07%

Global population

94% younger than 70 years

91% younger than 65 years

86% younger than 60 years

The current analysis suggests a much lower pre-vaccination IFR in non-elderly populations than previously suggested.

Large differences did exist between countries and may reflect differences in comorbidities and other factors.

These estimates provide a baseline from which to fathom further IFR declines with the widespread use of,

Vaccination

Prior infections

Evolution of new variants.

Unmitigated epidemic
(March 2020)
UK deaths = 510,000 (168,913)

US deaths = 2.2 million (1,065,152)

During 2021 and 2022

Vaccination, new variants, prior infections,

resulted in a marked decline in the IFR

Published 50 minutes ago:

Video description (in case they take down the video/channel):

Pfizer expects to hike U.S. COVID vaccine price to $110-$130 per dose

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-expects-price-covid-vaccine-110-130-per-dose-2022-10-20/

Pfizer executive Angela Lukin

Pfizer Inc expects to roughly quadruple vaccine price,

to about $110 to $130 per dose,

after the United States government’s current purchase program expires,

U.S. government currently pays around $30 per dose to Pfizer and German partner BioNTech

Pfizer

Expects the COVID-19 market to be about the size of the flu shot market

Tim Gough, 55, Radio Suffolk

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/24/radio-dj-dies-halfway-hosting-breakfast-show/

Excess deaths in the young

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

US data

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#data-tables

US, all ages

https://usmortality.com/deaths/excess-cumulative/united-states

Tragic young death

https://nypost.com/2022/10/08/rep-sean-casten-reveals-teen-daughter-died-from-cardiac-arrhythmia/

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/illinois-rep-sean-casten-reveals-teenage-daughter-died-cardiac-arrhythmia

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11294477/Illinois-Rep-Sean-Casten-reveals-healthy-teenage-daughter-died-cardiac-arrhythmia.html

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html

Gwen Casten, 17, died peacefully in her sleep in June,

after eating dinner with her parents and then going out with friends for a few hours.

(Congressman Rep. Sean Casten)

Democrat’s statement

She had just come home from an evening with friends, went to bed and didn’t wake up

The Castens

This past June, our daughter, Gwen Casten, died of a sudden cardiac arrythmia.

In layman’s terms, she was fine, and then her heart stopped
healthy 2022 teenager

fully vaccinated

and had tested positive for COVID-19 more than once in recent months,

but never experienced symptoms.

She had a big, beautiful, kind, loving heart. And it stopped, as all must

China, 20th party congress

President Xi Jinping

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/14/chinas-communist-party-congress-everything-you-need-to-know

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-63112996

No immediate loosening of zero-Covid strategy

Zero-Covid, people’s war to stop the spread of the virus

Recent weeks

Tens of millions, confined home

60 towns and cities

Dynamic zero-Covid, linked to Mr Xi

Strict lockdowns, mass testing, constant scanning of health codes, travel restrictions

Trains out of Xinjiang suspended

Roadblocks

Widespread reports, food and medicine

Quarantine centres, family separations

IDs linked to health code apps

No vaccine compulsion

(Local vaccines only)

Professor Liang Wannian, government Covid expert panel

Zero-Covid might come to an end?

It’s hard to say

Because one thing I am sure of is, we won’t kill the virus any time soon.

We’re waiting for more effective medicines and more effective vaccines.

2 hours ago: England and Wales Increase in Deaths by Age Group: 62% in Children, 12% in Teens, Almost 20% in Adults, and 16% in Old People