Minutes ago ONS released these new numbers, which I’ve been eager to see for days (also refreshed the page once in several minutes), having examined closely some troubling trends since the summer. Here’s the update:

We’ve made a local copy as OpenDocument Format (ODF).

For comparison’s sake, here are the latest numbers:

Week 44 deaths in 2019:

11795 (this year) – 9777 (pre-COVID 5-year average) = 2018 or 20.64%.

As per these pre-pandemic numbers, the causes of death across the UK look like this:

This should be self-explanatory. The data is here as ODF.

2022′s breakdown by causes is framed rather differently, which makes comparison difficult (maybe intentionally).

The corresponding Web page does not specify totals per cause. The hypothesis here is that there’s a correlation between the increases in heart attacks or other cardiac events. Some are fatal.

An earlier report said that “leading cause of death in England in June 2022 was dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (10.8% of all deaths); in Wales, the leading cause was ischaemic heart diseases (10.7% of all deaths).”

So there’s somewhere around 11%. This is for June:

To quote some more:

In the first six months (January to June) of 2022, the leading cause of death in England was dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (107.7 deaths per 100,000 people). In Wales, the year-to-date leading cause of death was ischaemic heart diseases (116.8 deaths per 100,000 people).

In England, the year-to-date COVID-19 mortality rate decreased to the fifth leading cause of death (46.7 deaths per 100,000 people) from the third in May 2022. This was statistically significantly lower than the top two leading causes of death (dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, and ischaemic heart diseases), and significantly lower than four of the other seven leading causes.

In Wales, deaths due to ischaemic heart diseases, and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease were also the top two leading causes of deaths. They were statistically significantly higher than any other cause of death. Deaths due to COVID-19 decreased to the sixth leading cause of death in the year-to-date (46.9 deaths per 100,000 people), from fourth in May 2022. This was significantly higher than all leading causes ranked lower.

So about 1.17 in 1,000 people died with “leading cause of death [being] ischaemic heart diseases” in the first 6 months.

The tendency to release in such inconsistent presentation forms (or presenting different kinds of data) makes one wonder if the motivation is to hide something. Why should it be so hard to figure out how many people died annually from heart failure before and during the pandemic?

And here is the graph plotted based on this new data:

IT IS hard to find mortality rates (pre-COVID-19) for the whole of the UK. The closest thing to it is this FOIA/FOI request or this month’s data file, which shows:

The number on the right is total deaths per week (2022).

Looking at the FOIA, here’s what it says: “Using the Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional, as at week 46 (13th November 2020) 529,928 registered deaths in England and Wales.”

For the year prior: “In 2019, there were 530,841 deaths registered in England and Wales.”

Screenshot below included, as the page will vanish one day:

So far, in the first 43 weeks of 2022, in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland combined there have been 536,196 deaths (I’ve put together the numbers).

We’re seeing about 13,000 deaths per week, so expect 40,000 more in the 3 weeks that follow, i.e. about 575,000 deaths.

In the above FOIA, ONS does not give the complete figures for the whole of the UK (those are hard to find, maybe by intention), but using this weekly update we get for England and Wales:

471,064. With 9 more weeks ahead (for the year to finish). 3 more weeks from now it’ll be about 502,000 compared to 529,928 at the same period in 2020.

Extrapolate a little and find that in 2022 we’re not doing a lot better (than in 2020) in terms of preventing deaths.

Curious that this awful news was published exactly on memorial day.

Work/labour crisis based on ONS (many people in working age are unable to work for health reasons; many more than usual die, too).

Just over a day ago ONS issued this report. It shows a health crisis. Tragic that ONS uses proprietary Microsoft formats as the sole option in some cases. Here is the net increase in people out of work due to sickness (those are not very old people). To quote: “More people are out of the labour market because of long-term sickness since the pandemic began, but long COVID is not the main factor” (so what is it?)

Mar-17 0 (baseline)
Apr-17 -12243
May-17 3062
Jun-17 -9687
Jul-17 15880
Aug-17 31964
Sep-17 63498
Oct-17 41252
Nov-17 -8983
Dec-17 5493
Jan-18 -4207
Feb-18 -7468
Mar-18 -14159
Apr-18 -5663
May-18 13248
Jun-18 51386
Jul-18 58023
Aug-18 40517
Sep-18 8515
Oct-18 -8724
Nov-18 476
Dec-18 15675
Jan-19 14694
Feb-19 -12721
Mar-19 10836
Apr-19 -20433
May-19 25155
Jun-19 40168
Jul-19 56703
Aug-19 77710
Sep-19 62523
Oct-19 80378
Nov-19 73738
Dec-19 83506
Jan-20 128347
Feb-20 120961
Mar-20 136072
Apr-20 157124
May-20 135137
Jun-20 131716
Jul-20 156974
Aug-20 185190
Sep-20 228936
Oct-20 226929
Nov-20 203011
Dec-20 241629
Jan-21 212563
Feb-21 188448
Mar-21 216830
Apr-21 205674
May-21 221870
Jun-21 190969
Jul-21 230382
Aug-21 270572
Sep-21 295908
Oct-21 303054
Nov-21 348557
Dec-21 335703
Jan-22 344846
Feb-22 358585
Mar-22 323858
Apr-22 346058
May-22 329616
Jun-22 394814
Jul-22 472972
Aug-22 498642

What has happened since then? It must have worsened a lot.

Seeing that all the data is in Microsoft formats (shame on ONS for outsourcing a lot to Microsoft, rewarding Microsoft for crimes), I’ve decided to convert it to ODF, as follows:

• ONS on antibodies
• ONS on death totals
• ONS on health
• Survey
• COVID data
• long-term sickness

Description:

Excess deaths AND long-term sickness dramatically increased in the UK

New Hope Children’s Centre

This is a great organisation I have been involved with for 12 years now. I fully attest to the veracity and dedication of all the staff I have met. The founder is Anne Chege, who my brother and I know well. Anne worked with Barclays Bank for 28 years, looking after orphans and abandoned children within her own home. On retirement she opened this centre and has dedicated her life to the work.

To contribute to this work,

https://www.buymeacoffee.com/newhopechi3

Zoe data

https://console.cloud.google.com/storage/browser/covid-public-data

Prevalence

One in 29

One in 40 (2.43%)

Since the end of June 2022, mostly Omicron variant BA.5

Antibodies, 95.8% of adults in England

ONS (11th November)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/deaths

Long COVID not main factor in long-term sickness increase

10 November 2022

Since the pandemic in the UK,

Number of people out of work because of long-term sickness has risen by around 363,000

The number of people on long-term sick

other health problems or disabilities,

between April and June 2022,

was 97,000 higher than the same period in 2019.

A 41% increase

UK covid deaths, week ending 28 October 2022

717 deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) registered in the UK

Previous week, 737

Excess deaths in the UK, ending 28 October 2022

Deaths registered in the UK, 12,861

12.5% above the five-year average

(1,430 excess deaths).

Deaths involving COVID-19 accounted for 5.6% of all UK deaths

UK official data

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Description:

Official UK government debate

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2022-10-24/debates/FF880636-BC3B-4BDB-A5E0-D6D4B82B2888/Covid-19VaccinesSafety

Official UK Government YouTube channel, the debate in full for those interested

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfgGCgxGYkk

Sir Christopher Chope, MP for Christchurch