Link

Lower than previously thought

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand (16th March 2020)

Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

We assumed

Incubation period of 5.1 days

Infectious 12 hours before to 4.6 days after

R0=2.4

Non-uniform attack, applied to the GB population

Result in an IFR of 0.9%

with 4.4% of infections hospitalised

10.4 day stay

30% of hospitalised, ICU (50% death rate)

(not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality)

Age-stratified infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in the non-elderly informed from pre-vaccination national seroprevalence studies

Stanford California, Rome, Montreal

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.10.11.22280963v1

40 eligible national seroprevalence studies,

covering 38 countries with pre-vaccination seroprevalence data.

For 29 countries publicly available age-stratified COVID-19 death data,

and age-stratified seroprevalence information were available,

and were included in the primary analysis.

IFRs for 0 to 59 years

median IFR = 0.035%

(IQR, 0.013 – 0.056%)

Without accounting for seroreversion

(average time from seroconversion to seroreversion at 3-4 months)

IFRs for 0 to 69 years

IFR = 0.095%

0 to 19 years

IFR = 0.0003%

20 to 29 years

IFR = 0.003%

30 to 39 years

IFR = 0.011%

40-49 years

IFR = 0.035%

50-59 years

IFR = 0.129%

60-69 years

IFR = 0.501%

At a global level

Pre-vaccination IFR,

may have been as low as,

0 to 59 years = 0.03%

0 to 69 years = 0.07%

Global population

94% younger than 70 years

91% younger than 65 years

86% younger than 60 years

The current analysis suggests a much lower pre-vaccination IFR in non-elderly populations than previously suggested.

Large differences did exist between countries and may reflect differences in comorbidities and other factors.

These estimates provide a baseline from which to fathom further IFR declines with the widespread use of,

Vaccination

Prior infections

Evolution of new variants.

Unmitigated epidemic
(March 2020)
UK deaths = 510,000 (168,913)

US deaths = 2.2 million (1,065,152)

During 2021 and 2022

Vaccination, new variants, prior infections,

resulted in a marked decline in the IFR

September 2022, Journal of Insulin Resistance: “Curing the pandemic of misinformation on COVID-19 mRNA vaccines through real evidence-based medicine – Part 1″

Astract:

Background: In response to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), several new pharmaceutical agents have been administered to billions of people worldwide, including the young and healthy at little risk from the virus. Considerable leeway has been afforded in terms of the pre-clinical and clinical testing of these agents, despite an entirely novel mechanism of action and concerning biodistribution characteristics. Aim: To gain a better understanding of the true benefits and potential harms of the messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) coronavirus disease (COVID) vaccines. Methods: A narrative review of the evidence from randomised trials and real world data of the COVID mRNA products with special emphasis on BionTech/Pfizer vaccine. Results: In the non-elderly population the ‘number needed to treat’ to prevent a single death runs into the thousands. Re-analysis of randomised controlled trials using the messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology suggests a greater risk of serious adverse events from the vaccines than being hospitalised from COVID-19. Pharmacovigilance systems and real-world safety data, coupled with plausible mechanisms of harm, are deeply concerning, especially in relation to cardiovascular safety. Mirroring a potential signal from the Pfizer Phase 3 trial, a significant rise in cardiac arrest calls to ambulances in England was seen in 2021, with similar data emerging from Israel in the 16-39-year-old age group. Conclusion: It cannot be said that the consent to receive these agents was fully informed, as is required ethically and legally. A pause and reappraisal of global vaccination policies for COVID-19 is long overdue. Contribution: This article highlights the importance of addressing metabolic health to reduce chronic disease and that insulin resistance is also a major risk factor for poor outcomes from COVID-19.

Spoiler: we’re seeing about 2,000 more deaths than usual per week, including in many young people.

Chart data and the chart itself (as ODF): # of deaths chart, per week. Data from ONS.

CDC is authoritative, but it is curious that it doesn’t wish to give access to data from pre-COVID-19 years (I needed to use the Wayback Machine for that).

Local copy of the data (ODF): VSRR – State and National Provisional Counts for Live Births, Deaths, and Infant Deaths 2016-17 (via Wayback Machine)

January 2016: 246,000 deaths
January 2016: 230,000 deaths
March 2016: 244,000 deaths
Total deaths: 720,000

January 2017: 261,000 deaths
February 2017: 232,000 deaths
March 2017: 249,000 deaths
Total deaths: 742,000

Latest data:

January 2022: 368,000 deaths
February 2022: 288,000 deaths
March 2022: 266,000 deaths (latest month in public record)
Total deaths: 922,000 (28% more than in 2016 and 24% more than 2017)

Also see: CDC Data: US Deaths About 25% Higher This Winter Than Last Winter Before COVID-19 (Updated)

Published 50 minutes ago:

Video description (in case they take down the video/channel):

Pfizer expects to hike U.S. COVID vaccine price to $110-$130 per dose

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-expects-price-covid-vaccine-110-130-per-dose-2022-10-20/

Pfizer executive Angela Lukin

Pfizer Inc expects to roughly quadruple vaccine price,

to about $110 to $130 per dose,

after the United States government’s current purchase program expires,

U.S. government currently pays around $30 per dose to Pfizer and German partner BioNTech

Pfizer

Expects the COVID-19 market to be about the size of the flu shot market

Tim Gough, 55, Radio Suffolk

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/24/radio-dj-dies-halfway-hosting-breakfast-show/

Excess deaths in the young

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

US data

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#data-tables

US, all ages

https://usmortality.com/deaths/excess-cumulative/united-states

Tragic young death

https://nypost.com/2022/10/08/rep-sean-casten-reveals-teen-daughter-died-from-cardiac-arrhythmia/

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/illinois-rep-sean-casten-reveals-teenage-daughter-died-cardiac-arrhythmia

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11294477/Illinois-Rep-Sean-Casten-reveals-healthy-teenage-daughter-died-cardiac-arrhythmia.html

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html

Gwen Casten, 17, died peacefully in her sleep in June,

after eating dinner with her parents and then going out with friends for a few hours.

(Congressman Rep. Sean Casten)

Democrat’s statement

She had just come home from an evening with friends, went to bed and didn’t wake up

The Castens

This past June, our daughter, Gwen Casten, died of a sudden cardiac arrythmia.

In layman’s terms, she was fine, and then her heart stopped
healthy 2022 teenager

fully vaccinated

and had tested positive for COVID-19 more than once in recent months,

but never experienced symptoms.

She had a big, beautiful, kind, loving heart. And it stopped, as all must

China, 20th party congress

President Xi Jinping

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/14/chinas-communist-party-congress-everything-you-need-to-know

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-63112996

No immediate loosening of zero-Covid strategy

Zero-Covid, people’s war to stop the spread of the virus

Recent weeks

Tens of millions, confined home

60 towns and cities

Dynamic zero-Covid, linked to Mr Xi

Strict lockdowns, mass testing, constant scanning of health codes, travel restrictions

Trains out of Xinjiang suspended

Roadblocks

Widespread reports, food and medicine

Quarantine centres, family separations

IDs linked to health code apps

No vaccine compulsion

(Local vaccines only)

Professor Liang Wannian, government Covid expert panel

Zero-Covid might come to an end?

It’s hard to say

Because one thing I am sure of is, we won’t kill the virus any time soon.

We’re waiting for more effective medicines and more effective vaccines.

2 hours ago: England and Wales Increase in Deaths by Age Group: 62% in Children, 12% in Teens, Almost 20% in Adults, and 16% in Old People

The data has just been published irrespective of age groups. Let’s examine how it affects different age groups. The hypothesis or the assumption the media makes is, only very old (and frail, with “underlying conditions”) folks are dying more. Is that true? Let’s find out.

Pre- (2019) and Post-COVID-19 (2022) in Week 41, based on a full (complete) sample of about 10,000 deaths:

2019 W41
Ages 01-14: 16
Ages 15-44: 302
Ages 45-64: 1,137
Ages 65-74: 1,595
Ages 75-84: 2,869
Ages 85+: 4,008

2022 W41
Ages 01-14: 26
Ages 15-44: 338
Ages 45-64: 1,351
Ages 65-74: 1,901
Ages 75-84: 3,413
Ages 85+: 4,627

Increase:
Ages 01-14: 10 (+62%)
Ages 15-44: 36 (+12%)
Ages 45-64: 214 (+18.8%)
Ages 65-74: 306 (+19.2%)
Ages 75-84: 544 (+19%)
Ages 85+: 621 (+15.5%)
Total: 1731

What is the cause of these massive increases?

Crime?
NHS defunding?
Lack of access to treatment/screening during lockdowns etc.?
Depression/suicide/addiction?
Malnutrition/poverty?
Direct death from COVID-19?
Health damage after COVID-19 contraction?
Effect of vaccines?
Accidents (bath/car)?
Cardiac events (may be related to the above)?
A combination of factors above?

As per official numbers (with vast dataset comprising almost 4 million births per year):

Local copy of underlying data:

2021 CDC data (latest original/archive)
2018 CDC data (2018-19 original/archive)
2017 CDC data (2017-18 original/archive)

Data and chart (based on the above data): Infant mortality pre- and post-COVID-19