Curious that this awful news was published exactly on memorial day.

Work/labour crisis based on ONS (many people in working age are unable to work for health reasons; many more than usual die, too).

Just over a day ago ONS issued this report. It shows a health crisis. Tragic that ONS uses proprietary Microsoft formats as the sole option in some cases. Here is the net increase in people out of work due to sickness (those are not very old people). To quote: “More people are out of the labour market because of long-term sickness since the pandemic began, but long COVID is not the main factor” (so what is it?)

Mar-17 0 (baseline)
Apr-17 -12243
May-17 3062
Jun-17 -9687
Jul-17 15880
Aug-17 31964
Sep-17 63498
Oct-17 41252
Nov-17 -8983
Dec-17 5493
Jan-18 -4207
Feb-18 -7468
Mar-18 -14159
Apr-18 -5663
May-18 13248
Jun-18 51386
Jul-18 58023
Aug-18 40517
Sep-18 8515
Oct-18 -8724
Nov-18 476
Dec-18 15675
Jan-19 14694
Feb-19 -12721
Mar-19 10836
Apr-19 -20433
May-19 25155
Jun-19 40168
Jul-19 56703
Aug-19 77710
Sep-19 62523
Oct-19 80378
Nov-19 73738
Dec-19 83506
Jan-20 128347
Feb-20 120961
Mar-20 136072
Apr-20 157124
May-20 135137
Jun-20 131716
Jul-20 156974
Aug-20 185190
Sep-20 228936
Oct-20 226929
Nov-20 203011
Dec-20 241629
Jan-21 212563
Feb-21 188448
Mar-21 216830
Apr-21 205674
May-21 221870
Jun-21 190969
Jul-21 230382
Aug-21 270572
Sep-21 295908
Oct-21 303054
Nov-21 348557
Dec-21 335703
Jan-22 344846
Feb-22 358585
Mar-22 323858
Apr-22 346058
May-22 329616
Jun-22 394814
Jul-22 472972
Aug-22 498642

What has happened since then? It must have worsened a lot.

Seeing that all the data is in Microsoft formats (shame on ONS for outsourcing a lot to Microsoft, rewarding Microsoft for crimes), I’ve decided to convert it to ODF, as follows:

• ONS on antibodies
• ONS on death totals
• ONS on health
• Survey
• COVID data
• long-term sickness

Description:

Excess deaths AND long-term sickness dramatically increased in the UK

New Hope Children’s Centre

This is a great organisation I have been involved with for 12 years now. I fully attest to the veracity and dedication of all the staff I have met. The founder is Anne Chege, who my brother and I know well. Anne worked with Barclays Bank for 28 years, looking after orphans and abandoned children within her own home. On retirement she opened this centre and has dedicated her life to the work.

To contribute to this work,

https://www.buymeacoffee.com/newhopechi3

Zoe data

https://console.cloud.google.com/storage/browser/covid-public-data

Prevalence

One in 29

One in 40 (2.43%)

Since the end of June 2022, mostly Omicron variant BA.5

Antibodies, 95.8% of adults in England

ONS (11th November)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/deaths

Long COVID not main factor in long-term sickness increase

10 November 2022

Since the pandemic in the UK,

Number of people out of work because of long-term sickness has risen by around 363,000

The number of people on long-term sick

other health problems or disabilities,

between April and June 2022,

was 97,000 higher than the same period in 2019.

A 41% increase

UK covid deaths, week ending 28 October 2022

717 deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) registered in the UK

Previous week, 737

Excess deaths in the UK, ending 28 October 2022

Deaths registered in the UK, 12,861

12.5% above the five-year average

(1,430 excess deaths).

Deaths involving COVID-19 accounted for 5.6% of all UK deaths

UK official data

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Description:

Official UK government debate

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2022-10-24/debates/FF880636-BC3B-4BDB-A5E0-D6D4B82B2888/Covid-19VaccinesSafety

Official UK Government YouTube channel, the debate in full for those interested

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfgGCgxGYkk

Sir Christopher Chope, MP for Christchurch

The new data:

Data pre-COVID/Wuhan virus:

Description:

ONS, 1st November release, UK deaths, week ending 21 October 2022

13,463

15.7%

1,822 excess deaths

Deaths involving COVID-19, 5.5% of all UK deaths

https://www.bhf.org.uk/-/media/files/what-we-do/influencing-change/tipping-point-bhf-report.pdf?rev=089147572a2c4dd789746b5e6f4ba617&hash=F7141D4C13A10C6C089824892CA59CDE

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2022-10-24/debates/FF880636-BC3B-4BDB-A5E0-D6D4B82B2888/Covid-19VaccinesSafety

Mr. Andrew Bridgen MP (NW Leicestershire)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfgGCgxGYkk

Eurostat

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/demo_mexrt/default/table?lang=en

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:Map01_Excess_Mortality_2022_Aug.png

Latest from Dr. John Campbell:

Covid antibodies found in stored blood samples

Milan Institute for Tumour Diseases, Coronavirus antibodies, September, 2019

Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy (October 2021)

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33176598/

Full text version

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8529295/

Screening and Multiple Intervention on Lung Epidemics (SMILE

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03654105

There are no robust data, coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and spread, prepandemic period worldwide

We investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD)-specific antibodies

Blood samples of 959 asymptomatic individuals,

enrolled in a prospective lung cancer screening trial,

between September 2019 and March 2020

Plasma samples repository

Results

SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in,

111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals

All the patients were asymptomatic at the time of blood sample collection.

Actual timeframe

First positive test, 3rd September

September 2019 23/162 (14.2%)

October 2019 27/166 (16.3%)

Second week of February 2020, (more than 30%)

By the end of September, Lombardy, Veneto, Piedmont, Emilia Romagna, Liguria, Lazio, Campania, Friuli.

Official timeframe

End of December 2019, coronavirus 2 identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China

January 30th 2020 Italy’s first two cases,

(two tourists from China tested positive in Rome)

February 20, 2020 Lombardy, 38-year-old man, no history of travel

Authors

This study shows an unexpected very early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals

Several months before the first patient was identified

Finding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in asymptomatic people before the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy may reshape the history of pandemic.

Phenomena 1

Underestimation of prevalence

Swabs and serology, focused on symptomatic cases

Therefore, an underestimation of overall COVID-19 infections

(Selection bias)

Therefore overestimation of mortality rate

May 25 and July 15 (2020)

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence study, n = 64,660

Prevalence rate was 2.5%

Approximately 1.5 million, (many of whom were asymptomatic)

Estimate almost 5 times higher than official reports

Phenomena 2

Onset of the epidemic, likely to have preceded identification of the first case

November–December 2019

Doctors reporting, severe respiratory symptoms in elderly and frail,

with atypical bilateral bronchitis,

which was attributed to aggressive forms of seasonal influenza

Based on these findings, a prior unnoticed circulation of the virus among the Italian population could be hypothesized.

October 2019 to February 2020

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7428442/

Molecular analysis, PCR, 40 wastewater samples Milan/Lombardy, Turin/Piedmont, and Bologna/Emilia Romagna)

Presence of viral RNA,

December 18th in Milan and Turin

So, in which direction did the virus travel?

7th Military World Games

??????????

Commonly known as Wuhan 2019

October 18–27, 2019

Around 230,000 volunteers

9,308 athletes from 109 countries competing in 329 events

Released moments ago:

Description:

Deaths from cardiovascular disease show a significant excess

Epidemiologist Veena Raleigh, The King’s Fund

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/29/disastrous-legacy-left-lockdown-non-covid-excess-deaths-overtake/

Food writer dies aged 49

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/nov/02/julie-powell-food-writer-and-blogger-behind-julie-julia-dies-aged-49

Cardiac arrest caused by heart arrhythmia

Olivebridge, upstate New York, 26 October, 2022

Survived by her husband, brother and parents

Throughout October

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

An average of 1,564 extra deaths per week

Throughout 2020 it was 315

Throughout 2021 it was 1,322

24,440 non covid deaths since May, 2022

More on the proximal causes

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

23 March, 2020 (first UK lockdown)

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nation&areaName=England

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending21october2022

Deaths registered, UK, week ending 21 October 2022

13,463

15.7% above the five-year average = 1,822 excess deaths

1,379 in week up to 23 March, 2020

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/29/disastrous-legacy-left-lockdown-non-covid-excess-deaths-overtake/

All age groups

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

E.g. 0 to 24

Amitava Banerjee, clinical data science, consultant cardiologist, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London

We should never ever have had a pandemic preparedness team that did not consider the indirect and long-term effects.

We focussed on the direct effects of excess deaths from covid,

but from the beginning it’s likely the indirect effects will lead to more deaths,

and more morbidity and more economic impacts than Covid deaths itself

What I see is still a focus on the direct effects of Covid

Nobody who is in charge of the NHS, or any of the new health secretaries, are making any noises about it