A “dog ate my homework” moment?

After much waiting, and maybe a dozen page refreshes^*, we finally get this:

Are these numbers reliable?

Can they blame Microsoft Excel? Either way, vigilant citizens are being left in the dark for about 3 weeks^**. How hard can it be to just count death certificates (no classification needed)?

________
^* I’ve been very eager to see these numbers. We see reports about COVID and hospitalisation surges.
^** It’s hard not to feel like they may be ‘hiding’ the dead now (the totals at least). Delaying the information? We have a vaccine crisis, virus crisis, freezing wave etc.

Data for this article: Baby deaths [Open Document Format]

Hypothesis: babies born into the pandemic are equally likely to survive (but caveats exist, e.g. maybe only more affluent families still have kids and medical treatments continue to improve)

So I’ve decided to check how the pandemic affects babies, specifically people under the age of 1 in England and Wales, for which we have complete data from ONS.

Based on the available data, 2,190 children under the age of 1 died so far this year, compared to 2,322 (132 more) in 2019. Those kids might be born a year earlier, i.e. in 2021 and in 2018.

Births in 2018 were 5.2% higher than in 2021, based on the official figures. 657,076 – 624,828 = 32,248 (fewer births in 2021 than in 2018), representing a big decrease.

Old data can be found here (births in England and Wales). It says: “There were 679,106 live births in England and Wales in 2017, a decrease of 2.5% from 2016 and the lowest number of live births since 2006.”

In 2018 there was a decrease. To quote: “There were 657,076 live births in England and Wales in 2018, a decrease of 3.2% since 2017 and a 9.9% decrease since the most recent peak in 2012.”

More recent data comes from this page (also see “Births by parents’ country of birth, England and Wales: 2021″). To quote: “There were 624,828 live births in England and Wales in 2021, an increase of 1.8% from 613,936 in 2020, but still below the 2019 figure (640,370); 2021 remains in line with the long-term trend of decreasing live births seen before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.”

It also says: “There were 2,597 stillbirths in 2021, an increase of 226 from 2020; this is similar to the 2,522 stillbirths in 2019. [..]. The stillbirth rate in 2021 increased to 4.1 stillbirths per 1,000 total births compared with 3.8 in 2020; this is also higher than the rate seen before the coronavirus pandemic in 2019 (3.9).”

Based on the available data, the number of babies dying in their first year was similar in the past year to what it was before the COVID-19 outbreak. If adjusted to the total number of births, compensating for disparity and assessing the ratio.

It may be safe to conclude that babies’ mortality rate (at least here) did not worsen in recent years, unlike all the other age groups.

Just published: Chinese vaccine comparisons

Description:

Chinese and Western vaccines compared

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-63855508

Big changes, all of a sudden

Live with the virus

Vice-premier, Sun Chunlan

China entering a new situation

Virus ability to cause disease weakening

Lifting most severe Covid policies

End of quarantine camps

People can isolate at home

No more family separations

Close contacts not taken to camps

Strict ban on blocking fire exits

No need to show tests for venues

Less rules on internal travel

Lateral flow tests to replace PCR tests in most areas

Lockdowns continue in smaller more targeted areas

Foreign travel soon

Cases, 30,000 +

Now

Everyone will be exposed

Will the medical system will be overwhelmed?

National Health Commission

All localities, focus on improving the vaccination rate of people aged 60-79,

accelerating the vaccination rate of people aged 80 and above,

and making special arrangements

Prof Ivan Hung, Hong Kong University

The main way for China to exit Covid with the least damage is via vaccination and three doses of vaccination is a must

Hopefully before Chinese New Year (January 22) Rabbit

Sinopharm

Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE)

https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-sinopharm-covid-19-vaccine-what-you-need-to-know

The vaccine is safe and effective for all individuals aged 18 and above.

Individuals may choose to delay vaccination for 3 months following the infection.

An inactivated vaccine with adjuvant

(that is routinely used in many other vaccines)

with a documented good safety profile, including in pregnant women.

Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and efficacy against hospitalization 79%

Does it prevent infection and transmission?

No substantive data

Does it work against new variants of SARS-
CoV-2 virus?

SAGE currently recommends using this vaccine

Not yet been evaluated in the context of circulation of widespread variants of concern.

How does this vaccine compare to other vaccines already in use?

We cannot compare the vaccines head-to-head,

(different approaches taken in designing the respective studies)

but overall, all of the vaccines that have achieved WHO Emergency Use Listing,

are highly effective in preventing severe disease and hospitalization due to COVID-19.

Comparison with Western vaccines

Pfizer original paper

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577/suppl_file/nejmoa2034577_appendix.pdf

BNT162b2 was 95% effective in preventing Covid-19

Later analysis from

Efficacy and effectiveness of covid-19 vaccine – absolute vs. relative risk reduction

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9115787/

AAR, Pfizer, during the trial period,

0.84%

AAR

https://patient.info/news-and-features/calculating-absolute-risk-and-relative-risk

Absolute risk of a disease is your risk of developing the disease over a time period.

Five to six-months update, AAR

BNT162b2 3.7%

mRNA1273 (Moderna-NIH) 4.9%

Last week: In Week 46 (ONS Released the Full Provisional Figures Yesterday), Adults Aged 15-44 Saw 35.5% Rise in Deaths (2022 Compared to 2019)

Latest numbers here.

In week 47 of 2019, 283 adults aged 15-44 died in England and Wales.

In week 47 of 2022, 359 adults aged 15-44 died in England and Wales.

359 – 283 = 76 or 27% higher in 2022 than in 2019.

What’s the cause if it’s not COVID-19 and not “Long COVID”? One can guess and Germany studies the matter.

The following figures came out this morning (England and Wales total deaths per week):

England and Wales deaths per week, now with week 47 (it’s higher this year than it was last year)

Source: ONS

Here is how that compared to pre-COVID-19 years:

Deaths above normal in 2022, based on complete statistics, not a random sample. Values above 0 mean deaths higher than pre-COVID-19 for a given week. Counting the deaths since week 22, we have 37,000 more deaths in England and Wales this year than average prior to the pandemic. That’s a LOT of people.

Data: As ODF

Description:

Autopsy-based histopathological characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00392-022-02129…

Likelihood assessment of vaccine-induced
(epi-)myocarditis

Causality or correlation?

Presence of myocarditis with temporal association to vaccination event

AND

Integration of histological phenotype, clinical presentation, and laboratory findings indicate no alternative differential diagnosis

Abstract infographic

Cases of myocarditis

Have been diagnosed clinically,

by laboratory tests,

imaging

(in the context of mRNA-based anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination)

Autopsy-based description

We describe,

Cardiac autopsy findings and common characteristics of myocarditis,

with vaccine-induced myocardial inflammation representing the likely or possible cause of death.

Our findings establish the histological phenotype of lethal vaccination-associated myocarditis.

Standardized autopsies

Performed on 25 persons

25 bodies found unexpectedly dead at home,

within 20 days following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination

Histology

Patchy, focal, interstitial myocardial T-lymphocytic and macrophage
infiltration,

predominantly of the CD4 positive sub- set, (T Helper cells)

associated with mild myocyte damage.

Autopsy findings indicated

Death due to acute arrhythmogenic cardiac failure.

Thus

Myocarditis can be a potentially lethal complication following mRNA-based anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.

Our findings may aid in adequately diagnosing unclear cases after vaccination,

and in establishing a timely diagnosis in vivo, thus,

providing the framework for adequate monitoring and early treatment of severe clinical cases.

The official numbers.

The underlying figures:

Deaths for week 46. Ages 15-44 in 2022:

Same for 2019:

That’s 354 compared to 271 before pandemic.